Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 30.54 | HOLD | 30.54 | 29.68 | n/a | 33.56 (+9.9%) | 43.52 (+42.5%) | Lenovo is holding a constructive base and we stay long the full. The signal is a stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D at conviction 63, the close of 30.54 sits well clear of our 29.68 stop, and the 12-week projection of 43.52 still implies roughly +42% upside, so there is no sell basis on any of the three origination classes. Valuation is neutral at FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.62), which neither helps nor hurts, and no dated news landed in the window. Operational nuance: conviction slipped only, far short of the 20-point collapse that would be an ADR-0012 fire tick, and the position is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.10, T12_Progress 70.17). STOP HELD at 29.68: the model drifted Stop_Price UP to 30.09 but that is just 0.30 ATR below the close, inside one day's chop on a 4.9%-ATR name, and a 2.0x ATR chandelier from the 30.60 peak close computes 27.58 (lower), so the monotonic non-decreasing rule per HS-3a keeps 29.68. ADR-0020 not fired, Peak Stop 29.68 = live, 0% erosion. Scorecard cell FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +4 is held report-only per learnings section C (L1/HS-5 chase discount) and was not applied. |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 70.60 | HOLD | 70.60 | 66.19 | n/a | 76.86 (+8.9%) | 85.43 (+21.0%) | We hold all of Sunny Optical and raise the trailing stop rather than trim. Conviction is recovering strongly on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, the 12-week projection of 85.43 is about +21% above the 70.60 close, and valuation reads UNDERVALUED with quality passing, so nothing originates a sell even though the position is 2.55% underwater on a one-day-old 72.45 cost. The Apple keynote on 09-10 is a direct optics read-through five sessions out, and the catalyst-aware hold says trail through the event rather than pre-trim. Operational nuance: STOP RAISED 64.73 -> 66.19, the same 2.0x ATR chandelier convention anchored on the 72.45 entry, recomputed with today's compressed ATR of 3.129; it is monotonic up per HS-3a and sits 1.41 ATR below the close, outside daily noise. The model's own Stop_Price of 69.66 is REJECTED at 0.30 ATR below the close, the same too-tight defect rejected on 09-02 (systemic finding 2). ADR-0012 NOT armed: Gain_ATR is -0.59 and T12_Progress reads 82.64 only because that field is Close/Target_12Week rather than progress from cost (systemic finding 1) - a trim here would be exactly the HS-2 target-exhaustion-dressed-as-profit-take error. ADR-0020 not fired, Peak Stop re-based up to 66.19 = live, 0% erosion. |
| — | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today: the book stays fully as-is with HK (69.2%) in cash. Across all twelve names in the universe not one printed a buy trigger - six are outright bearish AVOID signals, four are stuck on consensus-conflict NO TRADE, and the two we own are simply holds - so there was nothing to buy at any price, and neither holding gave a stop break, sell label or profit-take trigger to sell into. Sitting on cash through the 09-04 index rebalance, 09-07 US payrolls and the 09-10 Apple keynote is a deliberate posture rather than an oversight. Operational nuance: buy pool and anticipate slot both empty. Loudest near-miss was 1347 Hua Hong joining the HSI on 09-04 - rejected on four grounds (AVOID cv58, 12wk -43% vs close, Quality_Pass False firing the hard gate on a no-DCF UNDERVALUED mark, and HS-5/L6 barring the inclusion-gap chase after this book watched a prior 1347 +8.4% gap round-trip 201.80 -> 185.50). 6869 YOFC touched WATCH cv55 on 09-02 then collapsed to NO TRADE cv0, and would have been blocked anyway by the quality gate at MoS -12.03. Counterfactual record supports the restraint: no_chase_queue n=8, median 4wk +23.19% saved. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
18 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.