Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology (Group) | 71.70 | HOLD | 71.70 | 64.73 | n/a | n/a | 85.59 (+19.4%) | Yesterday's buy-stop filled at 72.45 and Sunny Optical closed a fraction below it at 71.70, so we are 1.0% underwater on a one-day-old position. The breakout has stalled rather than failed - the stock held its ground while the wider board sold off - but the engine's conviction has cooled sharply from a strong buy to a watch, so we neither add nor cut: we hold the full stake with a defined risk line into tomorrow's Broadcom read-through. The valuation case is neutral, close to the cash-flow anchor, so nothing there argues for either urgency or alarm. OPERATIONAL: filled 3,800 @72.45 (auto-executor 17:00:27, 4s AFTER the 17:00:23 scan wrote this snapshot - hence Held=N and blank Avg_Cost/Gain_ATR/T12_Progress on the anchor row; position columns derived by hand). Conviction (-26) but ADR-0012 fire ticks require an ARMED position and this one is -0.21 ATR below cost, so tick (b) does NOT apply - no dispose case. L2 not met: close 71.70 is above the recorded stop and Target_12Week 85.59 is positive. Working stop held at 64.73 (2.0x ATR chandelier from the 72.45 entry); today's chandelier from the close computes 64.63, lower, so the monotonic trail stands per HS-3a. DELIBERATELY NOT adopting the model Stop_Price 70.40 - at 0.37 ATR below the close it sits inside one day's noise on a 4.9%-ATR name and would function as a stop-out generator, not a risk control (same name printed 57.26 / -20% yesterday; see systemic finding 3). Signal cell FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy carries the book's only actionable bias (+3, n=8) but L1/HS-5 discount this family as a chase - adj 62 is below the 65 floor either way, so no add. Position is 12.0% of book. · news |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 30.60 | HOLD | 30.60 | 29.68 | n/a | 33.41 (+9.2%) | 43.61 (+42.5%) | Lenovo is quietly doing its job - up 0.7% on our cost, holding the top of its range while the rest of the HK semiconductor board fell, and conviction actually recovered today rather than fading. There is no sell label, no exit warning and no valuation objection worth acting on, and the next company event (results) is not until mid-November, so there is nothing to trade around. We hold all with the risk line unchanged. OPERATIONAL: conviction (+8), the only conviction increase among held names tonight. Not profit-armed: Gain_ATR 0.15 and T12_Progress 70.17% are both far below the arm thresholds, and no Exit_Warning printed - ADR-0012 does not engage. Stop HELD at 29.68; the model drifted its Stop_Price DOWN to 29.56 and HS-3a forbids adopting a drifted-down stop, while a 2.0x ATR chandelier from the 30.60 close computes 27.79, well below the existing trail - so 29.68 stands as the highest defensible line. ADR-0020 Trail Erosion NOT FIRED: Peak Stop 29.68 = live working stop, erosion 0%. Valuation FAIR_VALUE, MoS -0.619 -> val_adj -3, amplify-only with nothing to amplify. Scorecard +3 on this exact cell (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, n=8, hit_1w.667) - note hit_4w is 0.000, which is why the Target_12Week 43.61 is not credited (see systemic finding 2, the 1.425 rail). Position is 18.9% of book. Yahoo Finance confirms next earnings 2026-11-18. · news |
| — | YOFC | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declining YOFC for a fifth straight session. It has flickered back to life technically after two days of no signal, but the objection has never been technical: the shares are priced for growth far beyond anything the cash flows support, there is no reliable valuation anchor to compute at all, and the company fails our quality screen outright - which blocks a brand-new position regardless of how the chart looks. The engine itself only rates this a watch, not a buy. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0 -> WATCH cv55; adj = 55 - 10 (val) + 3 (cell) = 48 vs the 65 floor. HARD QUALITY GATE: Quality_Pass False with no DCF_per_share, MoS_FV -12.03 - blocks new entries outright per Step 6. Even without the gate the 12-week view (166.26) prints BELOW the 169.40 close, i.e. a negative forward return on a bullish-labelled row. Logged direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader keeps pricing what declining this repeatedly is worth - it flipped from cost to saved on 08-31 and the name has gone nowhere since. |
| — | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades tonight. The book bought Sunny Optical this morning and that fill used the only buy signal on the board - after it, not a single name in the twelve-stock universe prints a buy: seven are outright bearish or unreadable, two are weak watches, and the two we own are simply holds. Nothing has deteriorated enough to sell either. With Broadcom's results landing tomorrow and capable of moving this sector six percent in either direction, standing still with 69% of the book in cash is the position we want. OPERATIONAL: buy pool EMPTY (no STRONG BUY / BUY / ADD row in the anchor); anticipate slot EMPTY (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print). Sell pool EMPTY: neither held name carries a sell label, an Exit_Warning, a stop break or a profit-arm. Best rejected candidate 2382 at adj 62 (3 short of the floor). No open GTC orders carried forward - the only one expired into a fill today. HKunchanged, 69.1% of a HKbook. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
17 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.