Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.42 | HOLD | 32.42 | 29.96 | n/a | 36.53 (+12.7%) | 46.20 (+42.5%) | Holding Lenovo, and there is nothing to do beyond that. The shares fully reversed Monday's 6.2% flush in a single session, closing at 32.42 - above where they started the week - and the position is now 4.1% ahead of cost with an unrealised gain of about HKThe trend read is intact on every measure: price sits above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day averages and has moved back above its volume-weighted average price, while the shares screen as fairly valued rather than expensive, so there is no valuation case to act on either. No news could be verified in the window. OPERATIONAL: no buy label tonight - the signal reverted to HOLD cv62, so last night's rejected BUY - ADD was a one-session flush artefact and is not re-proposed; the like-for-like HOLD reading is 63 (09-07) -> 62 (09-09), flat, so ADR-0012 tick (b) is not merely unfired but a false comparison. NOT ARMED for a profit-take: Gain_ATR +0.62 < 3.0 and T12_Progress 70.17 < 90. L2 fails both legs (close 8.2% above the 29.96 trail; T12 46.20 = +42.5% over close); HS-3 does not fire. CAVEAT: the +6.79% recovery came on 98.8m shares = 0.84x the prior session's 118.3m distribution volume - enough to remove the emergency, not enough to confirm accumulation. TRAIL: HOLD at 29.96 (monotonic peak, unchanged). 2.0x ATR chandelier from the 32.58 high = 28.47, below the standing trail, so no raise is available. Buffer widened to 1.20 ATR / 7.59% from 0.20 ATR. Model Stop_Price 30.78 REJECTED for the third consecutive night - it equals the session Low to the full float and yields only 0.80 ATR, under the >=1.0 ATR floor (Systemic #1). ADR-0020 not fired: Peak Stop = live stop 29.96, 0% erosion, never cut. Risk if hit HKvs cost. · news |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 69.60 | HOLD | 69.60 | 67.02 | n/a | 75.08 (+7.9%) | 82.90 (+19.1%) | Holding Sunny Optical through tonight's Apple keynote rather than trimming ahead of it. The shares recovered 3.4% to 69.60, more than reversing Monday's drop, and now sit a comfortable 3.9% above the protective sell level that was nearly touched yesterday. The position is still 3.9% below cost, so there is no profit to protect, and the trend read strengthened: price is above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, with the long-term line no longer sitting just underneath. The shares screen as fully priced but only marginally so - nowhere near the level at which valuation would argue for cutting. The company supplies camera modules into the iPhone, so tomorrow's Hong Kong session will price the keynote; policy is to hold through a scheduled event and let the protective level do its job, not to pre-empt it. No news could be verified in the window. OPERATIONAL: conviction (-4), far short of the ADR-0012 20-pt tick. NOT ARMED: Gain_ATR -1.04 (underwater) and T12_Progress 83.96 < 90 - and HS-2 forbids reading an 84% 'progress' number on a losing position as a profit-lock (Systemic #3). Exit_Warning blank. L2 fails both legs (close 3.85% above the 67.02 trail; T12 82.90 = +19.1% over close). Valuation MoS -0.0326 is a hairline crossing of zero, 3.0 from the -3 elevate bar, and amplify-only means there is nothing to amplify. CATALYST: Apple keynote 01:00 HKT 10 Sep, two-sided [-5.0,+5.0] pct, confidence med, stance hold-through, band anchor 0522; TSMC August revenue lands the same session and also reads through. A -5% day prints 66.12, decisively through the trail - tension unchanged in kind but much reduced in degree (a -3.7% day no longer stops out, where -0.5% would have last night). TRAIL: HOLD at 67.02 (monotonic peak, unchanged). Chandelier from the 69.75 high = 64.27; from the 72.45 entry = 66.85; both below the standing trail, so no raise. Buffer widened to 0.94 ATR / 3.71% from 0.10 ATR. Model Stop_Price 67.25 REJECTED for the seventh consecutive night - it equals the session Low exactly and yields 0.86 ATR, under the >=1.0 ATR floor (Systemic #1). ADR-0020 not fired: Peak Stop = live stop 67.02, 0% erosion, never cut. Risk if hit HKvs cost. · news |
| — | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. The book bounced 3.2% to HKas both holdings fully retraced Monday's sell-off, and the unrealised position swung from a HKloss to a HKgain - but the recovery came on 16% less volume than the fall, which is dip-buying rather than confirmed accumulation, so it does not turn a refused purchase into a chased one. Only one name in the twelve-stock universe produced a buy signal - Yangtze Optical Fibre - and it fails the quality screen outright while trading 12-14% above the price the model would pay, after rising 21% in three sessions. Neither holding gave any reason to sell: no exit warnings, no profit-taking trigger, both comfortably above their protective levels, and both forward views solidly positive. Just under half the book stays in cash at HKwaiting for a signal worth. OPERATIONAL: ACQUIRE - buy pool = {6869} only; triple-blocked (raw cv63 is 2 under the 65 floor; val_adj -10 from MoS -12.383 takes adjusted conviction to 53; Quality_Pass False is a hard gate on a new entry) and the only publishable entry band [157.49, 166.01] sits 11.9-14.3% below the 183.60 close, with Entry_Distance_ATR -1.28 and a +7.24% expansion-volume day (1.48x) on top of the 09-07 +9.9% gap - L6/HS-5 no-chase. 3750 prints WATCH, not a buy label. 0992 reverted to HOLD, so no add exists to consider. ANTICIPATE slot EMPTY, sixth consecutive session. open_orders empty since the 09-07 fill - no queue to reprice, withdraw or expire. DISPOSE - no sell family, no Exit_Warning, neither name armed, ADR-0020 not fired on either. Honest counterfactual: the 6869 non-chase has cost 7.24% in one session and 21.4% over three; logged as Systemic #7 with a fix candidate to make gate-blocked refusals visible to the counterfactual grader, which cannot currently price them. Scorecard: 89 entries, graded 19, calib_1w -0.097 (degenerate -> f=0.30 per L5, not consumed - no action carries an estimate). Valuation fresh (2 days). Overlay 66 days stale, learnings ACTIVE 53 days old with 7 PROPOSED blocks inert; Step 8a skipped per batch directive. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
19 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.097 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.