Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 68.80 | NO ACTION | 66.37 | 67.02 | 68.26 (+2.8%) | 72.66 (+9.5%) | 81.48 (+22.8%) | Sunny Optical printed the book's strongest buy signal in weeks - a PullbackBuy_VWAP add at conviction 70, five points clear of the floor, on a name still trending above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and valued essentially at fair value. We are not taking it, because the model's pullback entry of 66.37 sits below the 67.02 stop that already protects the shares we own: there is no price in the permissible entry band [65.74, 67.00] at which we could buy without price simultaneously breaking the line at which we are meant to sell. Buying and being stopped out cannot both be right, so we hold the existing and wait for a setup that clears our own risk line. Refused on risk geometry, not on the signal or the valuation. Sizing had it been taken: 39.22% x 3,800 = 1,490 -> (100-lot) @ 66.37 = HK9.4% of HKdry. Blocks: entire provenance band 66.37 +- 0.25 x 2.512 = [65.74, 67.00] lies at/below the recorded monotonic trail 67.02; engine re-based its own Stop_Price to 63.13 (-5.8%) to fit the entry - rejected under HS-3(a) and the monotonic rule. Corroborating negatives (none decisive alone): volume 7.93m = 0.80x prior and 3rd consecutive decline; Momentum pillar; this book's PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy cell is 0-for-4 at 4wk (n=4, report-only, bias +0, no haircut taken - warning printed). RE-ARM TRIGGER: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP print with Entry_Price > 67.02, or a chandelier raise lifting the trail above the entry band - then take at cv70. Ledgered direction:none/optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices the refusal. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.097 degenerate). 12wk 81.48 exceeds DCF anchor 68.79 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Stop unchanged 67.02 (chandelier from high 69.45 = 64.43, below trail). ADR-0020 not fired: peak stop = live stop, 0% erosion. |
| 6869 | YOFC | 177.40 | NO ACTION | 162.91 | 143.39 | 174.27 (+7.0%) | 200.77 (+23.2%) | 201.93 (+24.0%) | YOFC keeps printing a buy signal and we keep declining it, for a third session. The technical case is real - a pullback entry in an uptrend - but the company fails our quality screen (weak Piotroski score, negative free-cash-flow yield) and the shares are priced far beyond any defensible estimate of intrinsic value, which together strip 10 points off conviction and take it below our threshold for a brand-new position. Encouragingly the froth is coming out: the stock gave back 3.4% today on a third of yesterday's volume, and the price we would be willing to pay is now 6-10% below the market rather than 12-14%. We stay out until either the quality picture improves or the price comes to us. Blocks: raw cv65 meets the floor but val_adj clamp(round(-12.383 x 5), -10, 0) = -10 -> adjusted 55 < 65; Quality_Pass False (F-Score 6, negative FCF yield) is a HARD gate on a new entry. Publishable band 162.91 +- 3.784 = [159.13, 166.69] = 6.0-10.3% below the 177.40 close (was 11.9-14.3% on 09-09). L6/HS-5 post-gap chase pattern cooling: -3.38% today on 12.29m = 0.35x the 35.5m rip. Honest cumulative cost of the refusal since 09-08: +3.6% (171.20 -> 177.40), down from +7.2%. Ledgered direction:none/optional:true expressly to close 09-09 Systemic #7 - a gate-blocked row now generates a card so the grader can price what the hard gate costs. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5). No DCF anchor available (DCF_per_share blank) so no DCF annotation. Scorecard cell PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=4 report-only, bias +0, warning printed. |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.26 | HOLD | — | 29.96 | n/a | n/a | 45.97 | We continue to hold all 30,000 Lenovo shares, up 3.6% on our cost. The model went quiet on the name today - its indicators disagreed with each other and it declined to give a rating at all - but one indecisive session after a strong run is noise, not a reason to sell, and the underlying picture is unchanged: the shares sit comfortably above every major moving average and the 12-week view still points 43% higher. Our stop stays where it is, 7% below the market, and a second consecutive indecisive session is what would make us look harder. Detail: label degraded HOLD cv62 -> NO TRADE cv0 (NoTrade_Reason verbatim: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'); Pillar consensus Consolidation_Bullish -> Conflicted; Momentum pillar. HS-4 requires TWO consecutive cv0 prints before deterioration basis - this is the FIRST, so noted not acted on, and it is the single item to watch tomorrow. Not armed: Gain_ATR +0.62 (< 3.0), T12_Progress_Pct 70.18 (< 90); Exit_Warning blank; no profit-take exists to fire. L2 fails both legs: close 32.26 is 7.7% above the 29.96 trail and T12 45.97 = +42.5% over close. HS-3 does not fire. Valuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.7486 -> val_adj -4, which is 2.25 short of the -3 elevate bar, and amplify-only means there is nothing to amplify. Stop HELD at 29.96 (monotonic peak): chandelier 2.0x ATR from high 32.40 with ATR 1.7877 = 28.82, below the trail. Buffer 2.30 = 1.29 ATR / 7.13%; risk if hit HKvs cost. The NO TRADE row prints no Stop_Price at all, so there is nothing to adopt or reject - the recorded trail is the position's only risk line. ADR-0020 not fired: peak stop = live stop, 0% erosion, never cut. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
19 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.097 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.