Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 31.30 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @31.49 lapsed — closed 31.30 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Lenovo pulled back 3% to its own volume-weighted average price and the model read it as a buy, upgrading from no-trade to BUY-ADD at conviction 77. The case is that the pullback is shallow inside a strong uptrend - the shares sit above their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, the 12-week projection of HKis 42% above the close, and unusually that projection is underwritten rather than stretched: it sits just below our discounted-cash-flow estimate of HK. Valuation reads FAIR_VALUE with the book's joint-best quality score, so we are paying a fair price for a business with a clean balance sheet rather than chasing a story. We are buying with a limit order, not at market, because the risk is defined: the order fills at HKagainst a stop at HK, risking under 1% of the book. OPERATIONAL: adjusted conviction 73 = raw 77 + val_adj -4 (MoS -0.7486) + scorecard_bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only, n=4 < 5 floor - warning printed, no haircut taken; this card becomes the fifth sample and resolves Systemic #8). GEOMETRY PASS - this is why it is taken while 2382 at cv81 is not: entry 31.49 sits 5.1% ABOVE the recorded trail 29.96 and the whole publishable band [31.05, 31.93] lies above the exit line. Entry_Distance_ATR +0.11 = close 31.30 is BELOW the limit, so the no-chase bar is not engaged; the limit self-enforces HS-5 (a Monday gap above 31.49 simply leaves it unfilled). Sizing 39.22% x 30,000 = 11,766 -> on the 2,000-share board lot, x1.0 size modulator; cost HK = 35.7% of HKdry. Cap: 60% x 2,261,290 = 1,356,774 less 939,000 existing = HKheadroom - clears, but post-fill 0992 = 58.1% of book, only 1.9 pts under the single-name cap. FLAGGED. Model Stop_Price 29.22 REJECTED as a 2.5% downward drift (HS-3a, monotonic rule); trail stays 29.96. Blended cost post-fill 31.25; add risks HK (0.81% of book), full 42,000 risks HK (2.4%). Counterweights stated: today was -2.98% on 1.41x volume (distribution-flavoured), the label has oscillated cv77->cv62->cv0->cv77 in four sessions so this is a FRESH not stable print, and this book's PullbackBuy cell is 0-for-4 at 4wk - the limit order is how all three are priced. HS-4 vindicated: last night's single cv0 was correctly held as noise and re-armed bullish one session later. L8 pending_next_open, execute_on 2026-09-14 - reprice if Monday's open gaps >~1.5%; note 09-14 is the HK session pricing US August CPI (horizon stance tighten-trail, confidence HIGH), which is precisely why this is a limit. expires_on 2026-09-16, deliberately before the 09-16/17 FOMC. Estimates: f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.097 degenerate); 12wk 44.60 sits BELOW the DCF anchor 45.63 so no exceeds-DCF caveat is owed. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | After three straight sessions of no action with 47% of the book in cash, the portfolio is putting one risk-defined limit order to work. Three names turned bullish at once; only Lenovo can be bought at a price above the level where we would sell it, so only Lenovo gets an order. Sunny Optical carries the stronger signal but its buy price sits below its own stop, and YOFC fails the quality screen. The order expires before the 16-17 September Fed decision by design. OPERATIONAL: 1 ACQUIRE (0992 QUEUED buy-limit @ 31.49, GTC, expires 2026-09-16, execute_on 2026-09-14), 0 DISPOSE, 2 STOP HOLDS, ANTICIPATE slot EMPTY (8th consecutive). Ends a three-session NO ACTION run. Book HK, -HK (-1.21%); unrealised +19,310 -> -8,350. HK (46.9%) covers the HKbuy 2.8x -, leaving 681,830 (30.2%) post-fill. Post-fill 0992 = 58.1% of book vs the 60% single-name cap - the cap becomes the binding constraint for the first time in this book's life. Stops both HELD at monotonic peaks (0992 29.96 buffer 0.76 ATR / 4.28% tightened; 2382 67.02 buffer 0.77 ATR / 3.01% recovered); BOTH model Stop_Price values rejected as downward drifts tonight (0992 29.22 -2.5%, 2382 63.24 -5.6%) - Systemic #2 escalated. ADR-0020 not fired on either name (0% erosion, never cut). Monitor clean: stop_breaches [], unledgered_drift [], trades_detected []. Valuation FRESH (4 days). Scorecard 95 entries, graded 19, calib_1w -0.097 -> f=0.30. News none found in window on allowed domains. Overlay 68 days stale (down-weighted); horizon 4 days fresh. Catalyst: today's Oracle add-after-print and Korea Customs windows BOTH fired against 0981/1347/7709 and all three FELL - the second consecutive add-after-print window the complex has declined. Ahead: 09-14 HK prices US August CPI (tighten-trail, HIGH), 09-16/17 FOMC + dot plot + HKMA peg (tighten-trail, HIGH). Step 8a (learnings review) EXPLICITLY SKIPPED per the batch directive. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
19 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.097 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.