Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 180.00 | NO ACTION | 180.00 | 173.00 | 192.08 (+6.7%) | 220.28 (+22.4%) | 256.50 (+42.5%) | Sole bullish-actionable print but rejected: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D BUY conv 61 is 4 pts below the 65 floor and a single-print flip (NO TRADE cv0 on 07-03/04/06 -> BUY cv61 today, low stability). Entry 180.0 = close, not extended (EDist 0.0, RSI 56.5), stop 173.0. L1-discounted chase cell; the former hktech +10 FailedBreakdown edge (learnings D1) has zero support in the fresh-book scorecard (bias 0) and P1 (inert) records it decaying. Overlay ('no new leverage into 07-08 FOMC minutes') + Event Horizon (TSMC Q2 07-16 = add-after-print, Hynix ADR read-through 07-10 -4..+6%) both say wait for the print, don't pre-position. val_adj 0 (NA_CCY), f=0.30. Ledgered direction=none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not-buying cost or saved. T12 256.5 exceeds Est_High 213.96 (no DCF anchor, NA_CCY). |
| — | hktech book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION verdict. Standalone fresh inception book, no holdings -> empty sell pool; buy pool has only 1347 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D BUY cv61, single-print flip, 4 pts below the 65 floor). HKseed cash fully retained (0%). Overlay + Event Horizon both reinforce the wait (no new leverage into 07-08 FOMC minutes; TSMC 07-16 add-after-print). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
1 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.