Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 9618 | JD-SW | 120.00 | NO ACTION | 107.64 | 102.52 | 109.04 (+1.3%) | 112.32 (+4.3%) | 122.10 (+13.4%) | JD is the first structurally sound long this book has surfaced since inception -- it trades above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages with a bullish trend and a modestly positive 12-week view, the opposite of the falling knives rejected all last week. But the shares have already run 11.5% past the price the model wants to pay, and a regulatory probe into 618-festival advertising (plus a related securities-fraud investigation) is an overhang the chart does not price. Chasing here is the mistake; we wait for the pullback. Ops: Entry_Distance_ATR -3.02, VWAP_Distance +12.56%, RSI 67.6, close 120.00 vs EMA50 111.71 / EMA100 113.11 / EMA200 116.53; Trend=Bullish 75, Consensus=Consolidation_Bullish, T12 122.10 = +1.75% vs close. Provenance limits any queue to 107.64 +/-0.25 ATR [106.62-108.66], but a fill there needs -10.3% in <=3 sessions and would break EMA50/EMA100 -- the GTC could only execute once the thesis is dead, so deliberately NOT queued. Corroborating: entry 107.64 < its own Est_Low 117.60 (engine defect); R:R 0.91 (HT-3 config artifact -- the HT-3 independent check itself PASSES on forward view + definable stop); T4 112.32 below the close; fresh single print (cv 33/33/46/73, no stability). L1/L6 no-chase; HT-6 news-override. RE-ARM: fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP cv>=65 with Entry_Price at/above Est_Low and within ~0.5 ATR of close -- in practice a pullback into the 111-114 EMA50/100 shelf holding above EMA200 116.53, probe not escalated. Do NOT buy strength above 120 into the 143.80 52W high. f=0.30 (L5); val_adj 0 (NA_CCY). · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 52.58 | NO ACTION | 52.58 | 5.01 | 63.99 (+21.7%) | 90.64 (+72.4%) | 29.97 (-43.0%) | A 2x leveraged Hynix tracker bouncing off deeply oversold levels, but it is still far below its medium-term averages and the model projects it 43% lower over twelve weeks -- an oversold bounce inside a downtrend, not a turn. The SK Hynix results on 22 July are the event that decides it; there is no reason to pre-position. Ops: Action=WATCH, so it never enters the buy pool regardless of cv65. Below EMA50 96.04 and EMA100 79.83; T12 29.97 = -43% vs close 52.58; stop 5.01 is un-sizable (no risk-definable entry per CLAUDE.md section 9). hklev leveraged-ETF doctrine; book note B. Horizon: SK Hynix Q2 07-22 -- wait for the print. f=0.30 (L5); val_adj 0 (NA_CCY). |
| — | hktech book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sixth straight session fully in cash. Only one name cleared the quality bar and it had already run too far past our buy price to be worth chasing, so the book stays 100% in cash with HK of intact. Every name we passed on last week has since fallen further, so the discipline is paying. Ops: 0 ACQUIRE / 0 DISPOSE. Sell pool empty by construction (zero holdings). Sole floor-clearer 9618 cv73 PullbackBuy_VWAP rejected as an un-queueable chase (ED -3.02; the only legal limit 107.64 can fill only by breaking EMA50/EMA100, i.e. only once the thesis is dead) with a JD 618-festival regulatory probe confirming the withhold. Friday's five-name pullback pool (0700/1211/1810/9988 all cv65) reverted to NO TRADE cv0 today -- the flips were VWAP-mechanical exactly as called on 07-17. 0100 -10.6% today, -25.9% since the 07-15 reject, and the engine itself flipped it to AVOID cv62. 0992 Lenovo decayed to NO TRADE cv0 and is dropped from the watch, replaced by 9618. ANTICIPATE slot empty. No open GTC queues to reprice, withdraw or expire. Valuation technical-only (NA_CCY, val_adj 0, quality gate off). f=0.30 (calib_1w -1.015). Overlay 15d stale; horizon fresh (SK Hynix 07-22, ASMPT ~07-23, CATL 07-24, FOMC 07-29 -- all those names sub-floor). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-1.015 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.