Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 9618 | JD-SW | 121.10 | BUY | 120.96 | 108.79 | 128.26 (+6.0%) | 145.30 (+20.1%) | 127.10 (+5.1%) | JD has broken out of its 20-day range and is now trading above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages for the first time in months, with the model projecting HKover four weeks against a clearly defined HKstop - roughly two units of reward for each unit of risk. It is the only name in this book with a positive outlook on both the four-week and twelve-week views, which is why it ends a six-session run of holding entirely cash. The size is deliberately kept to about half a normal position: the June-festival advertising probe into JD remains open, and breakout entries have no track record in this book yet. Ops: BreakoutUp_20D cv69, Buy_Rank #1, 2nd consecutive BUY print (cv73 -> cv69). Entry 120.96 = anchor Entry_Price (provenance-compliant), ED -0.04 -> not a chase -> ACT-NOW at open, not a GTC. Range [119.97-121.95]; close 121.10 inside. Reverses the 07-20 reject: all five mechanical objections resolved (ED -3.02 -> -0.04; entry now ABOVE Est_Low 118.68; R:R 0..00 via chandelier_trail, not the HT-3-silenced pullback geometry; T4 now +20.0% vs below-close; 2nd print). NOTE - the 07-20 re-arm trigger was met in substance (entry >= Est_Low, within 0.5 ATR of close, probe not escalated) but NOT in form (it required a PullbackBuy_VWAP pullback to 111-114 and said do not buy strength above 120); this is a deliberate, logged override of my own trigger. HT-4 screen PASS (first in this book's standalone life): T4 145.30 and T12 127.10 both > close; stop definable; R:R 2.00. L1 breakout discount + BreakoutUp_20D|buy scorecard n=0 + open regulatory overhang -> 0.5x haircut -> @ lot 50 = HK2.7% of book). Risk 450 x 12.17 = HK = 0.27% of book. News NOT re-applied as an override: same 2-day-old 618 summons + Pomerantz investigation, no escalation, non-dilutive and unquantified - categorically lighter than the HT-6 archetype (2513's ~US dilutive placement); tape absorbed it over two sessions. Escalation to a fine, formal SAMR case or filed class action = stand-down/exit trigger. CAVEAT: T4 145.30 is 14% ABOVE T12 127.10 - the engine implies a round-trip, so treat as a 4-week trade to be taken off at the objective, not a 12-week hold; 145.30 is also a 52W-high (143.80) retest. f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -1.015); val_adj 0 (NA_CCY valuation-blind, quality gate off). L8: execute at the 2026-07-22 open; reprice or stand down if the open gaps >~1.5% (above ~122.8). Not a 52W-high chase - close is -15.8% below the 143.80 high. · news |
| 6869 | YOFC | 142.00 | NO ACTION | 142.00 | 65.50 | 151.98 (+7.0%) | 175.25 (+23.4%) | 80.94 (-43.0%) | An oversold bounce in a stock that is still in a clear downtrend - it trades well below its medium-term averages and the model projects it more than 40% lower over twelve weeks. Bouncing off the lows is not the same as turning, and there is no sensible place to put a stop here, so we pass. Ops: Action=WATCH, never enters the buy pool. HT-4 screen FAIL: T12 80.94 vs close 142.00 = -43%; below EMA50 197.47 and EMA100 184.93; stop 65.50 = -54% (un-sizable, no risk-definable entry per CLAUDE.md section 9). Note-B falling knife. f=0.30 (L5); val_adj 0 (NA_CCY). |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.24 | NO ACTION | 23.24 | 21.64 | 24.26 (+4.4%) | 26.65 (+14.7%) | 31.96 (+37.5%) | Lenovo has the most attractive twelve-week outlook in the book - roughly 37% upside - and it trades above all its major moving averages, but the signal is not strong enough to act on and the setup type behind it has repeatedly failed in this book. Worth watching for a stronger trigger rather than buying at a middling reading. Ops: cv55, 10 pts sub-floor (65). Structurally sound - above EMA50 20.53 / EMA100 17.40 / EMA200 14.51, T4 26.65 (+14.7%), T12 31.96 (+37.5%), R:R 2.13 - but FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is the retired-D1 cell with zero standalone support (HT-2) and the L1-discounted chase family. Trail: WATCH48 -> BUY55 -> NO TRADE cv0 -> WATCH55 (unstable). Not re-added to the watch; 9618 is the acted name. f=0.30 (L5); val_adj 0 (NA_CCY). |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech book | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | After six sessions holding entirely cash, the book makes its first investment: a small position in JD.com, the only holding candidate that offers upside on both the one-month and three-month views alongside a stop we can actually place. Everything else the scanner surfaced is still falling, and we continue to leave it alone. Ninety-seven percent of the cash stays on the sidelines. Ops: 1 ACQUIRE (9618 BUY 450 @120.96, stop 108.79, pending_next_open 2026-07-22), 0 DISPOSE (sell pool empty by construction - zero holdings). ANTICIPATE slot empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in the last 3 snapshots). No open GTC queues to reprice/withdraw/expire. : buys need HKsells free HK -> funded from the HKseed; HK (97.3%) retained. Sizing basis (assumption): taken as this book's own HKseed per HT-1, NOT the hk.ini default_equity 600000; buy_pct 20%, max_position_pct 60% (not binding). 9618 is the first HT-4 screen PASS in the standalone book. Eight names print FailedBreakout_Down_20D (bearish family, long-only -> rejected by construction); 6869 cv68 fails HT-4 on a -43% T12; 0992 cv55 is the best forward view but sub-floor. 0522/0981/1347/2318/3750/9988 NO TRADE cv0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction) and report into the 07--24 earnings cluster. Valuation technical-only (NA_CCY, val_adj 0, quality gate off). Scorecard entries 32, graded 3, calib_1w -1.015 -> f=0.30 (L5); PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=3 report-only, BreakoutUp_20D|buy n=0 -> bias 0 everywhere (HT-2). Overlay 16d stale; horizon has nothing 9618-specific inside 10 sessions (FOMC 07-29 is the only macro item). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-1.015 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.