Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9988 | ALIBABA-W | 113.60 | NO ACTION | 106.37 | 99.28 | 108.32 (+1.8%) | 112.86 (+6.1%) | 99.66 (-6.3%) | Clears the conviction-65 floor exactly but REJECTED on the HT-4 forward-view screen: both T4 112.86 (-0.65%) and T12 99.66 (-12.3%) sit below today's close 113.60 - a note-B falling knife in disguise. R:R 0.92 (HT-3 config artifact); Entry_Distance_ATR -1.27 (close +6.8% above the 106.37 pullback entry) -> extended, only a QUEUED GTC at 106.37 (~6.4% below close) that fills solely on a selloff toward VWAP. Not queued, not bought. Estimates f=0.30 off model entry. |
| 0992 | LENOVO | 24.10 | NO ACTION | 23.18 | 21.08 | 23.76 (+2.5%) | 25.10 (+8.3%) | 33.89 (+46.2%) | The one buy-pool name with a positive forward view (T4 25.10 +4.1%, T12 33.89 +40.6% vs close 24.10) - structural opposite of the falling knives - but 6 pts sub-floor (cv59 < 65), HT-3 sub-1 R:R (0.91), and already stopped out twice in this book's scorecard (07-09/07-10 ADD QUEUED, both stop_hit ~-8%). On the watch; not actionable. Re-arm: fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP cv>=65 with definable stop and positive forward view intact. |
| 1810 | XIAOMI-W | 26.68 | NO ACTION | 25.01 | 23.42 | 25.44 (+1.7%) | 26.46 (+5.8%) | 23.05 (-7.8%) | Sub-floor (cv58 < 65); both forward horizons below close (T4 26.46 -0.8%, T12 23.05 -13.6% vs close 26.68) and Entry_Distance_ATR -1.31 (extended). Fails floor and HT-4 together. |
| — | hktech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Eighth consecutive 100%-cash session. Sell pool empty by construction (zero holdings). Buy pool = three PullbackBuy_VWAP floor-scrapers: 9988 (cv65) fails HT-4 on both forward horizons + R:R 0.92; 0992 (cv59) positive forward view but sub-floor + sub-1 R:R + twice stopped-out; 1810 (cv58) sub-floor + negative forward view. 07-21 pending 9618 acquire reconciled EXPIRED/unfilled (breakout failed, NO TRADE cv0). HKfully retained. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-1.015 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.