Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 34.90 | HOLD | 34.90 | 27.85 | 38.00 (+8.9%) | 45.23 (+29.6%) | 49.73 (+42.5%) | Lenovo reported Q1 FY2026/27 today and delivered a genuine beat - group revenue US9bn, +43% year-on-year, an all-time quarterly high with every business group at a record first-quarter - and the shares gapped and ran +20.2% to a new 52-week high of 35.46 on 3.9x normal volume. We hold the full position and are not adding: the stock now sits 2.09 ATR above the model's own entry with RSI at 79, which is a wait-for-the-pullback setup, not a buy. Instead we raise the protective stop to 27.85, above our 27.50 cost, so the worst case on this trade is now breakeven rather than a give-back. OPERATIONAL: ADD DECLINED - engine printed STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 Portion 134.02% at entry 29.61 (15.2% below the 34.90 close). Refused on (a) CLAUDE.md §9 no-chase (Entry_Distance_ATR -2.09 <= -1.0 AND RSI 78.97 > 75), (b) L6 post-earnings gap-chase ban, (c) action-price provenance forbids republishing the 29.61 limit. TRAIL-RAISE (mandatory, not optional): chandelier 3.0x ATR off the new 52W high 35.46 - 3 x 2.5357 = 27.85; peak_stop re-bases 24.84 -> 27.85 (+12.1%); scan's printed Stop_Price 21.80 explicitly NOT adopted (fresh-entry stop, and a trail is never lowered). Wide by design - ATR expanded 62% (1.565 -> 2.536) in one session. PROFIT-TAKE (ADR-0012): NOT ARMED - Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.92 < 3.0, T12_Progress_Pct 70.18 < 90 (and that field is stale, see systemic #1). Even if armed, G1 (fresh BreakoutUp_20D cv90 >= 80) and G3 (Target_12Week +42.5% vs action price, signal bullish) would block the trim - this is the NBIS cut-the-winner error. ADR-0020: not triggered (config default off for hktech; printed 21.80 is -12.2% vs peak 24.84, inside the 15% band; and the trail rises today regardless). VALUATION: fairvalue basis is 28.54 vs the 34.90 close; marked to market vs FV_per_share 17.775 the MoS is -0.963 -> val_adj -5, the deepest headwind this position has carried. Recorded only - valuation never originates a sell (CLAUDE.md §9). 12wk 49.73 exceeds the DCF anchor 43.49 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Estimates use f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.346, degenerate). RE-ARM TO ADD: pullback to the 29.61-31.00 zone with RSI < 70 and the breakout structure intact. · news |
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 121.90 | WATCH | 119.87 | 114.44 | n/a | 124.86 (+4.2%) | 134.68 (+12.4%) | Alibaba screens as the book's best-ranked buy on the technicals, but it fails our quality screen - the fundamental strength test (F-Score 3) comes back negative, and that is a hard block on any brand-new position regardless of how good the chart looks. The reward-to-risk on the trade is also poor at 0.92 (risking 5.43 to make 4.99), and the shares at 121.90 are still trading below their 200-day average of 127.19, which usually means a rally within a downtrend rather than a genuine turn. With June-quarter results due 2026-08-20 we would rather wait and see the print. OPERATIONAL: Quality_Pass False + -0 new entry = hard block (gate blocks new entries only). Adjusted conviction 61 vs 65 floor after val_adj -3 on MoS -0.687. R:R 0.92 = HT-3 config artifact (5th confirmation). HT-4 structural fail: close below EMA200. BABA results 2026-08-20 now 5 sessions out - inside the catalyst window, argues queue-below not buy. Verbatim repeat of the 08-12 rejection; close slipped 122.60 -> 121.90. RE-ARM: Quality_Pass True, or close reclaims EMA200 127.19 with conviction >= 68. |
| 9618 | JD-SW | 123.00 | WATCH | 125.07 | 120.57 | n/a | 129.19 (+3.3%) | 141.44 (+13.1%) | JD was the closest thing to a real buy this book has had, and it has just moved the wrong way - the model's confidence in the setup fell sharply in a single session, leaving it well short of our threshold. The structure is still sound (trading above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, with a 12-week view 15% above today's price and a tight, definable stop), but the reward-to-risk is under 1.0 and Q2 results land after tonight's close. We do not place orders into an unknown earnings print. OPERATIONAL: conviction, now 10 below the 65 floor and falling. R:R 0.92 (risk 4.50 vs reward 4.12) = HT-3 artifact (6th confirmation). L6 - JD Q2 lands after the 2026-08-13 HK close. HT-4 structural screen PASSES (close 123.00 > EMA200 118.28 / EMA100 116.76 / EMA50 118.72; Target_Price +5.0%, Target_12Week +15.0%; stop 120.57 = 2.0% below close; Quality_Pass True, val_adj 0) - it fails on conviction, R:R and event timing only. RE-ARM: post-print conviction >= 65 with the entry not extended, i.e. re-assess at the 2026-08-14 EOD. |
| — | hktech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. The book's single holding, Lenovo, reported strong results and jumped 20% to a new high - we are holding it in full and raising the protective stop to lock in a profit, but we are not buying more into that spike. The two other candidates both failed our screens. Cash stays at HK, ready for a better entry. OPERATIONAL: ACQUIRE 0/3, ANTICIPATE 0/1 (no BUY - ANTICIPATE labels in the last 4 snapshots), DISPOSE 0/3 (sole holding 0992; all three sell-origination classes checked and closed - no signal degradation, ADR-0020 not triggered, ADR-0012 not armed). Book value HK = +3.70% vs the 2,000,000 seed ( 16.83% / cash 83.17%); best mark since inception. Session +HKon 0992. HKunchanged, HKcommitted. Nothing pending for the 2026-08-14 open; no open queue to reprice, withdraw or expire. Step 8a not run (batch mode). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.346 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.