Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 33.60 | HOLD | 33.60 | 28.41 | 35.15 (+4.6%) | 38.77 (+15.4%) | 47.88 (+42.5%) | Hold the full. Lenovo's Q1 FY2026/27 was the strongest quarter in its history - US9bn revenue (+43% YoY), adjusted net income +176% to US1bn, AI revenue +60% to US3bn (35% of group), infrastructure +98% - and management guided to roughly US$100bn of revenue this year; the read-through was strong enough to lift Dell, HP and HPE. Today's -3.7% is post-gap profit-taking, not a change in the case: the stock made a new 52-week high at 36.16 before closing at 33.60, and the position still sits 18% above its stop with a +42.5% twelve-week view. The DCF marks the shares as richly priced, but that anchor materially under-prices a business that just guided to US$100bn, and valuation never originates a sell here. TRAIL RAISED 27.85 -> 28.41 (chandelier 3.0x ATR 2.5846 off the new 52W high 36.16); peak_stop re-bases to 28.41, now 3.3% above the 27.498 cost, protecting HKof banked gain. The scan's printed Stop_Price 32.82 is NOT adopted - it is a fresh-entry stop 0.30 ATR below the close and would be a 2.3% stop on a 7.7%-ATR name (systemic #3); a trail is never lowered. NOT profit-armed: Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.36 < 3.0 (fell from 2.92 as ATR expanded), T12_Progress_Pct 70.18 < 90 and frozen for a third session (systemic #1). The -31pt conviction collapse (cv90 -> cv59) WOULD be ADR-0012 fire tick (b), but arming is a precondition and it is absent - so this is a trail-raise, not a trim. G1/G3 would block the trim regardless (Trend 77, Consolidation_Bullish, 12wk +42.5%). ADR-0020 not triggered (stop = peak, 0% erosion). Valuation val_adj -4 marked to the 33.60 close (MoS -0.890 vs FV 17.775), non-originating per CLAUDE.md section 9. 12wk 47.88 exceeds the DCF anchor 43.49. Estimates on f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.346). BREACH RULE: a decisive close below 28.41 is the exit trigger; re-arm to ADD only on a pullback into 29.61-31.00 with RSI < 70 - do NOT resurrect the 29.61 limit. · news |
| 9618 | JD-SW | 110.20 | WATCH | 110.20 | — | n/a | n/a | 116.69 (+5.9%) | No buy - the signal is gone and the earnings print settled it. JD reported Q2 after the 08-13 close: net revenue RMB346.4bn was DOWN 2.9% year on year, and although EPS of RMB6.29 beat the RMB5.63 consensus and revenue beat RMB342.7bn, the market traded the revenue decline - cautious consumer spending and intensifying competition - and the HK line fell 10.41% from 123.00 to 110.20. The engine went with it: BUY cv55 -> NO TRADE cv0 on 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. The 08-13 card withheld this name explicitly on L6 (do not chase into an earnings print landing after the close), and that one decision avoided a -10.4% session on a would-be new entry - L6 validated on tape. RSI 34.9; no re-entry consideration until a base forms and the engine prints an actionable buy again. · news |
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 119.90 | WATCH | 119.90 | — | n/a | n/a | 129.80 (+8.3%) | No buy - Alibaba's two-session BUY cv64 collapsed to NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') and the close slipped again to 119.90, still below its 200-day average of 127.19. The quality screen that blocked this name for the last three sessions (Piotroski F-Score 3, valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN with the shares priced 69% beyond the intrinsic anchor) is now moot because there is no signal left to gate. Q2 results land 2026-08-20, four sessions away and inside the catalyst window, so L6 governs: no entry into the print regardless of what the signal does between now and then. Re-assess after the results are known. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 176.00 | WATCH | 176.00 | 172.94 | 178.12 (+1.2%) | 196.41 (+11.6%) | 158.53 (-9.9%) | No buy despite ASMPT being the only name in the book making steadily higher closes (167.50 -> 176.00 over five sessions) - it fails three independent screens at once. The label is WATCH, not an actionable buy, and conviction 63 sits below the 65 floor before any adjustment; the valuation layer prices the shares more than five times beyond their intrinsic anchor (GROWTH_PRICED_IN, margin of safety -4.44), which takes the adjusted conviction to 53, twelve points short; and the quality screen fails outright (F-Score/FCF), a hard block on a new position. Most decisive is the forward view: the twelve-week projection of 158.53 sits 9.9% BELOW the 176.00 close, so the model is pricing the recent strength as something to fade, not extend (HT-4 - screen the forward view before the conviction floor). Watch only; a buy needs an actionable label with a positive twelve-week view. |
| — | hktech book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION both sides. The acquire book is empty by construction, not by rejection: not one of the 21 names printed an actionable buy label in the 08-14 snapshot (13 AVOID, 4 NO TRADE, 3 WATCH, 1 HOLD), and no name printed BUY - ANTICIPATE, so the anticipate slot is empty too. Both of the prior session's buy candidates collapsed to NO TRADE cv0 and both fell on the day - JD -10.4% on its Q2 revenue decline, Alibaba -1.6% - vindicating the withholds. On the sell side the single holding, Lenovo, prints HOLD with a blank exit warning, no profit-take arming, price 18% above its stop and a +42.5% twelve-week view; there is no signal-based, risk-discipline or amplified-valuation basis for a trim. The only change is book-keeping: Lenovo's trailing stop ratchets 27.85 -> 28.41, which requires no order. unchanged at HK (83.7% of the book), twelfth straight session intact. Nothing pending for the 2026-08-17 open. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.346 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.