Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 33.02 | HOLD | — | 28.77 | 34.75 | 38.77 | 47.05 | Hold the full of Lenovo and raise the trailing stop. The Q1 result on 13 Aug was a genuine step-change - US9bn revenue up 43% year-on-year, an all-time quarterly high, with AI revenue up 60% to US3bn (now 35% of the group) and infrastructure up 98%, and management now guides to roughly US$100bn of revenue this fiscal year; Morgan Stanley more than doubled its price target on that pipeline. Two sessions of profit-taking since the +20% gap have taken the shares back to 33.02 on falling volume, which cools the momentum but does not touch the trend or the fundamental case - the 12-week view is still 47.05, some 42% above today's close. The disciplined response to a cooling winner is to protect the gain, not to sell it. || Operational: signal flipped HOLD cv59 -> NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); Trend 77 unchanged, Momentum, consensus Consolidation_Bullish -> Conflicted. ADR-0012 NOT ARMED (Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.24 < 3.0, T12_Progress_Pct 70.18 < 90 and frozen a 4th session) so tick (b) (-59 pts, well past the 20-pt bar) cannot fire; tick (d) is required consecutive NO TRADE prints - a second NO TRADE on 08-18 completes it. TRAIL RAISED 28.41 -> 28.77 = chandelier 3.0x ATR 2.4637 off the unchanged 52W high 36.16; peak_stop re-bases to 28.77, 4.6% above the 27.498 cost, protecting HKRow publishes no Stop_Price on a NO TRADE label, so the carried trail is the only stop of record (systemic #4). ADR-0020 not triggered (0% erosion). G1/G3 block any valuation trim. Valuation non-originating per CLAUDE.md s9: FAIR_VALUE, MoS -0.6056 at the 08-11 mark, val_adj -4 marked to 33.02. Estimates on f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.346 degenerate); 4wk 38.77 is CARRIED from 08-14 as the NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price; 12wk 47.05 exceeds the DCF anchor 43.49. BREACH RULE: decisive close below 28.77 exits. Re-arm to ADD only on a pullback into 29.61-31.00 with RSI < 70 (today 70.53). · news |
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 122.20 | WATCH | 122.20 | 120.80 | n/a | 130.25 (+6.6%) | 131.98 (+8.0%) | No purchase. Alibaba is the only near-miss in the book with a positive forward view, but it fails three independent screens at once: the signal is a WATCH rather than an actionable buy, the valuation screen scores it GROWTH_PRICED_IN on weak accounting quality, and June-quarter results land on 20 August - three sessions away. Buying a marginal setup into an earnings print is exactly the mistake that cost this book nothing only because it was avoided on JD last week. Wait for the print. || Operational: WATCH cv53 (not actionable) -> adj cv 50 after val_adj -3 (MoS -0.687), 15 pts sub-floor. Quality_Pass FALSE (F-Score 3) = hard quality-gate block on a -0 new entry. L6 governs regardless of signal. Close 122.20 still below EMA200 127.19. T12 131.98 = +8.0%, the only positive forward view among the near-misses. |
| 0772 | CHINA LIT | 21.48 | WATCH | 21.48 | 21.09 | n/a | 24.05 (+12.0%) | 20.36 (-5.2%) | No purchase. China Literature's own 12-week model view sits below today's price, so the setup asks the book to buy something the model expects to be worth less in three months - and it does so on a day the stock fell nearly 4% while almost every other name in the book rose. The valuation screen is at the far end of expensive. Nothing here to own. || Operational: WATCH cv55 (not actionable) -> adj cv 45 after val_adj -10 (clamped; MoS -6.422), 20 pts sub-floor. HT-4 kill: T12 20.36 vs close 21.48 = -5.2% forward view. Quality_Pass FALSE. Closed -3.76%, one of only two red names in a 19-of-21 green session. |
| 3750 | CATL | 652.00 | WATCH | 652.00 | 638.00 | n/a | 697.99 (+7.1%) | 604.17 (-7.3%) | No purchase. CATL clears neither bar: conviction is 25 points below the book's floor and the 12-week model view is 7% below today's price. A watch-list flicker on a +1.6% day is not an entry. || Operational: WATCH cv46 (not actionable) -> adj cv 40 after val_adj -6 (MoS -1.162), 25 pts sub-floor. HT-4 kill: T12 604.17 vs close 652.00 = -7.3%. Interim results dated 29 Aug, first tradeable session 31 Aug (horizon). |
| — | hktech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. The Hong Kong tech tape rallied hard on China activity data - 19 of the book's 21 names closed green, several up 6-12% - but every one of those leaders is bouncing inside a downtrend with a 12-week model view 15-43% below where it now trades, so there was nothing worth buying. The one holding, Lenovo, gave back 1.7% on halved volume after its record quarter; its trend is intact and its 12-week view is still 42% above the price, so it is held in full with the stop ratcheted up to protect HKof profit. The book stays 84% in cash, which is a position, not an omission. || Operational: ACQUIRE = NO ACTION by construction - zero bullish actionable labels across 21 names for a 6th straight session; anticipate slot empty. DISPOSE = NO ACTION - sole holding prints NO TRADE, unarmed, 14.8% above trail, +42.5% 12wk. Only change: 0992 trail 28.41 -> 28.77 (no order). HKfully retained (13th session). Book HK, +2.76% vs seed. Nothing pending for the 2026-08-18 open. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.346 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.