Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.96 | HOLD | — | 29.40 | 30.71 | 32.47 | 42.69 | Holding Lenovo in full - there is no case to sell it. The shares gave back about 2% over the last two sessions, but every measure that would justify trimming points the other way: the model's conviction actually recovered, the trend reading has now been at its strongest level for eight straight readings, and the twelve-week view still points about 42% higher. The stock trades roughly a third below our estimate of intrinsic value, it is one of the few names in this book that passes the accounting-quality screen, and its calendar is clear for the next ten sessions - the results are already out and behind us. The pullback itself is the healthy kind: the shares closed slightly below their average traded price on the day, which is what a pause inside an uptrend looks like, not distribution. We are keeping the protective stop where it has been for five sessions, at HK, which locks in about HKof the HKopen gain. The one honest caveat is that this stop is now uncomfortably close to the market - a single ordinary down-day could trigger it - but the alternative is loosening a risk line on a winner, which this book does not do. The only news in the window was Lenovo expanding regional manufacturing to manage the chip shortage and tariff risk; a mild margin negative, a mild resilience positive, and not enough to change anything. OPERATIONAL: HOLD IN FULL, NO TRIM, NO ADD. TRAIL HELD AT 29.40 FOR A FIFTH SESSION. Session open 30.38 / high 31.00 / low 29.76 / close 29.96 = -1.96% across the 08-26 to 08-28 gap on 78.6m vs 59.8m shares (+31%); closed below EMA10 30.237 for the first time this window but +2.6% over EMA20 29.21, +15.0% over EMA50 26.05, +35.7% over EMA100 22.08, +67.5% over EMA200 17.89. Unreal +11.14% to +8.95% (+HK). ALL SELL GATES NEGATIVE: 0.0, Sell_Rank blank, Exit_Warning blank, Consolidation_Bullish held 7th reading, Regime Trending held, Trend_Score 77 for an 8th consecutive reading. ADR-0012 NOT ARMED so nothing can fire: Gain_ATR 1.64 < 3.0 arm threshold; T12_Progress_Pct prints 70.18 but is FROZEN for a 12th consecutive snapshot - hand-computed (29.96-27.498)/(42.69-27.498) = 16.2%, nowhere near the 90 arm (Systemic #3, a broken gate on the profit-take path). L2 does not fire (close 29.96 above the 29.40 trail; 12wk +42.5%, not negative). ADR-0020 does not fire (live stop 29.40 == peak_stop 29.40, zero erosion; class default-off for this book). TRAIL ARITHMETIC: chandelier 36.16 - 3.0 x ATR 1.49766 = 31.667, HKABOVE the close = UNEXECUTABLE for a 5th consecutive session (Systemic #1); the row's own Stop_Price 28.89 is BELOW the trail and a trail is never lowered; a principled 1.5-ATR clamp gives 27.71. So 29.40 is the tightest defensible line. Headroom now only 1.87% / 0.374 ATR (was 3.80% two sessions ago) and today's low 29.76 came within HK - if an ordinary down-day takes it out, grade it as the sub-noise stop-distance artifact (Systemic #4), not as a thesis failure. Valuation is amplify-only and there is no signal-based sell to amplify: val_adj -3 is informational. Estimates use f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w +0.129 unchanged on a stale n=11 sample): 1wk 30.71 (+2.51%), 4wk 32.47 (+8.38%) = Target_Price, 12wk 42.69 (+42.5%). NOTE Systemic #2: this row prints Order_Type 'Buy Limit @ HK' with Entry_Price 30.76 ABOVE the 29.96 close (Entry_Distance_ATR +0.53) - a buy limit above the market is not a limit; and its R:R computes to (32.47-30.76)/(30.76-28.89) = 0.91, reproducing the HT-3 PullbackBuy_VWAP negative-EV signature on a 6th name. · news |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 66.20 | NO ACTION | 66.72 | 55.97 | 72.17 (+8.2%) | 88.21 (+32.2%) | 65.78 (-1.4%) | Not buying Sunny Optical, though it is the most interesting name on the board today and the first genuinely cheap, quality-passing candidate this book has seen. The shares broke out hard, closing up 5.75%, and now trade above both their 100-day and 200-day averages for the first time in this stretch, with our valuation work marking them modestly below intrinsic value. What stops us is the forward view: the model's twelve-week projection sits fractionally BELOW today's price, and this book's standing rule is that a buy must show a positive view on both the four-week and twelve-week horizons before conviction is even considered. On top of that, the shares are already stretched - nearly 10% above their average traded price and with momentum readings near overbought - so buying here means paying up on the day of the move, into the exact breakout pattern that has been this book's least reliable historically (nought for four on four-week targets). The risk line the model offers is also unusually wide, nearly 16% below the entry. So it goes on the watchlist with a concrete re-entry condition rather than into the portfolio. OPERATIONAL: adj 55 = raw cv53 + val_adj +2 (UNDERVALUED, MoS +0.1084, Quality_Pass TRUE F-7, clamp(round(+2.168),0,10)) + bias 0 (HT-2) = TEN POINTS SUB-FLOOR. Binding disqualifier is HT-4's twelve-week leg: Target_12Week 65.78 vs Close 66.20 = -0.63%, negative. Secondary: L1 - family BreakoutUp_20D is this book's worst cell (n=4, hit_1w 0.25, hit_4w 0.00, report-only). Extension: RSI 65.90, VWAP_Distance +9.50%, session 63.65-67.50 closing +5.75% at 66.20. Entry is a Buy Stop @ 66.72 (fills only on MORE strength) with Stop_Price 55.97 = 2.93 ATR = -15.5%; R:R (88.21-66.72)/(66.72-55.97) = 2.00, bought with a very wide risk line. CONSTRUCTIVE HALF, recorded: above EMA100 62.73 AND EMA200 65.08, Trend_Score, Pillar_Consensus flipped Indeterminate to Consolidation_Bullish, Regime Transitional. Ledgered direction=none / optional=true so the counterfactual grader prices this withhold - the book's open question is whether its no_chase_queue aggregate (n=7, median +9.01%/1wk cost) means it withholds too hard. RE-ARM TRIGGER: Target_12Week >= Close (the binding failure) AND a pullback into 62.50-64.50 that HOLDS above EMA200 65.08 / EMA100 62.73 on the retest AND RSI back below 60 - then buy at that day's live Entry_Price, NEVER at the 66.72 buy-stop and never at 66.20. 1wk estimate uses f=0.30 per L5. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.129 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.