Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.36 | SELL 30% | 32.36 | 30.09 | 33.31 (+2.9%) | 35.52 (+9.8%) | 46.11 (+42.5%) | Banking 30% of a +17.7% winner after its conviction halved in a single session. Lenovo has run from HKto HKon the back of its AI product cycle, and that gain has now reached the level at which our discipline arms a profit-take; at the same time Friday's strong buy reading collapsed from as the rally stalled on 39% of the prior day's volume and the push to HKfailed. Valuation is neutral - fair value, best quality rank in the book - so it neither argues for a deeper cut nor rescues the signal, and no fresh news has arrived since last week's AI announcements, which the market has now digested. We take the minimum tier, keep 70% of the position and hold the risk line, because the 12-week view is still strongly positive at HKOPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED (Exit_Warning PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 3.07 >= 3.0) + 1 fire tick (b) conviction -26pts = profit_take_1 30% =, proceeds HKrealized +HKG1 softening does NOT apply (tick (b) fires regardless; row is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv53, not a fresh breakout cv>=80); G2/G3 govern the valuation-elevate path only and are not load-bearing. No valuation tier bump (MoS -0.65 is not <= -3) and no argue-down (FAIR_VALUE, not UNDERVALUED). Stop HELD at the 30.09 ratchet watermark - the live model stop printed 29.20 (the scan's PROFIT_ARMED 2.0xATR tightening) but stops never walk down; 1.44 ATR / 7.0% below close, HKat risk on the remaining. ADR-0020 not applicable (off outside us; 29.20 is 3.0% below peak). f=0.30 (L5 mandatory, calib_1w -0.346 for a 3rd session). T12 46.11 sits +1.0% above the DCF anchor 45.64 - soft ceiling caveat, treat the 4wk 35.52 as the actionable objective. SUPERSEDES the 2026-09-04 ADD 6,000 GTC @31.75, now WITHDRAWN (conviction 53 < 65); it never filled - today's low 31.76 missed the 31.75 limit by one cent - so no shares changed hands and this is a single coherent net decision, not a flip-flop. Executes at the 2026-09-08 open (L8); the China August trade balance lands the same day - reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. Re-arm for an ADD: two consecutive prints of conviction >= 65 with a live buy trigger, not another one-session spike. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.346 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.