Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE: XLP 200@84.10, SPY 20@751.28 (tactical), SKYY 85@137.56 QUEUED. WITHDRAW XLF. DISPOSE none.
Recommendations
3 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 84.10 | BUY | 84.10 | 83.32 | 84.74 (+0.8%) | 85.53 (+1.7%) | 86.94 (+3.4%) | Defensive-staples buy that fits the event-gated de-risk posture into the 07-08 FOMC minutes and 07-14 CPI. FailedBreakdown_Up recovery, cleanest forward Est of the board (+3.4% 12wk). Repriced from the 07-03 QUEUED @84.99 to live entry 84.10 (provenance). NA_ETF book: technical-only, val_adj 0. Execute at 07-07 open, reprice if gap >1.5%. |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 751.28 | BUY | 751.28 | 746.31 | 753.49 (+0.3%) | 741.77 (-1.3%) | 742.94 (-1.1%) | Broad-market FailedBreakdown recovery, top conviction rank1 (cv66->85 on the settled close), entered at the trigger, not extended. TACTICAL/short-term only: the estimation model's 4wk (-1.3%) and 12wk (-1.1%) forward view is flat-to-down, so this is a bounce trade with a tight stop, not a position trade. NA_ETF: technical-only. Execute 07-07 open, reprice if gap >1.5%. |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 137.56 | BUY — QUEUED @137.56 | 137.56 | 134.32 | 138.94 (+1.0%) | 141.30 (+2.7%) | 145.41 (+5.7%) | Cloud-computing basket flipping fresh from NO TRADE x3 to BUY cv76 with the best 12wk Est upside (+5.7%). Because it is a fresh single print and a risk-on tech name heading into the 07-08 FOMC minutes, queue as a GTC limit at the printed entry for confirmation rather than market-buying. NA_ETF: technical-only. Expires 07-09; withdraw if cv<65 or expiry passes. |
| _PORTFOLIO | sectoretf | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Gauge read (Jul-6 close): risk-on tape led by broad market (SPY cv85), industrials (XLI cv88 VCP) and cloud (SKYY cv76); semis STILL cooled (SOXX/SMH WATCH cv49); megacaps weak (MAGS AVOID) and financials/biotech extended (XLF/XBI/IBB RSI>75). Informs us book: broad+industrial+cloud tailwind, semi headwind persists, avoid chasing the overbought financials/biotech. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
17 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.