Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE (queued), 0 DISPOSE. XLF -- GTC buy limit @,, stop, expires 2026-07-30. The eight-session NO-ACTION streak ends on the one name that met the re-arm condition this book wrote down on 07-24: the signal reverted from the discounted FailedBreakdown family (0-for-9 at 4wk) back to PullbackBuy_VWAP, the entry reverted from an at-market chase to a live limit 1.56 ATR below the close, and the model's 1wk/4wk forwards came back above the entry -- while conviction rose. Four other names cleared the 65 floor (XLP 82, XLI 72, XBI 72, XLV 67) and all four are held out on entry geometry or forward-view expectancy, not on conviction. Est_12W remains -0.79% below entry, so it is sized and timed as a <=4-week tactical swing (SE-2), not a hold. -> 24.9% if filled, preserved.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 57.60 | BUY — QUEUED @55.84 | 55.84 | 55.06 | 56.81 (+1.7%) | 56.41 (+1.0%) | 55.40 (-0.8%) | Financials are the one sector still trending while the broad tape stalls, and XLF just printed its first bullish golden cross since December 2023 into heavy sector fund inflows, with a steeper yield curve supporting bank net interest margins. Rather than chase an overbought rally, this is a GTC limit at -- 1.8% below the close -- so it only fills on a pullback, with a tight stop giving roughly 2:1 reward against the objective. Ops: satisfies the 07-24 re-arm condition verbatim (signal reverted from the -3 FailedBreakdown family to PullbackBuy_VWAP bias +0; live below-close limit; Est_1W +1.74% and Est_4W +1.02% back above entry), reversing the 07-24 SE-4 setup-degradation flag. SE-2 applies -- Est_12W is -0.79% below entry, so run as a <=4-week tactical swing with a planned exit at the 4wk mark, NOT a position hold. Sized to the book convention of 25% of the declared ( -> =), not the raw 85.49% portion formula ( = 68% of). L5/SE-3: calib_1w -0.08 degenerate, 1wk tenor low-reliability. Event risk: FOMC 07-29 sits inside the 3-session queue window -- the +/-3% band exceeds the 1.40% stop; skew favours financials (hike debate steepens the curve) but honour the stop, and if unfilled at the 07-29 close re-validate post-FOMC rather than riding blind into the 07-30 expiry. L8: place at the 07-28 open, reprice if it gaps >1.5%. · news |
| _PORTFOLIO | Sector ETFs | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1 ACQUIRE (XLF, queued gtc_limit @55.84,), 0 DISPOSE. Eight-session NO-ACTION streak ends on the one name meeting the 07-24 re-arm condition. Four other floor-clearers (XLP 82, XLI 72, XBI 72, XLV 67) held out on entry geometry or forward-view expectancy. Flat gauge book, nothing held, monitor clean, valuation blind (all-ETF). -> 24.9% if the limit fills, preserved. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
27 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.