US End-of-Day Verdict 31 Jul 2026, 16:00:00 GMT-4

Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict

NO ACTION -- 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE. Four names printed bullish and three cleared the 65 conviction floor, and every one fails the same test: the model's own 4-week estimate does not cover the distance to its own stop. DIA (adj 72, Buy_Rank 1) forecasts a LOSS at both 1wk and 4wk against a 0.97% stop placed 0.74 ATR away at the exact session low. XLV (adj 66) prints all three tenors below its entry and mislabels a de-facto market order as a 'Buy Limit'. XLF (adj 66, 4th consecutive decline) has the best geometry in the book -- a real 0.93%-below-close pullback limit with a 1.17 ATR stop -- and still only offers +0.43% at 4 weeks against a 1.45% stop, with an inverted 12-week. SKYY (conv 86, the book's highest) is anticipate-slot ineligible at 1-of-3 required prints and risks 7.58% against a negative 4-week forecast. The day's real event is the reconcile: yesterday's IBB acquire was STOPPED OUT on its execution session -- opened 189.14, low 184.78 through the 185.75 stop, closed 186.41 -- by precisely the risk its own card named, the 10-year yield jumping to 4.73% (highest since Jan 2025) on Brent, which sold every long-duration asset (XBI -2.94%, IBB -1.87%, GLD -1.49%) while XLE rose 1.00%. The stop was properly sized at 1.21 ATR and worked; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is now 6-of-10 stop-first here. The book is UNRECONCILED until that card is recorded TAKEN or SKIPPED (ADR-0019). Indices closed green on Amazon +15% while the semis gave back a 3.6-4.4% opening gap in full and printed NO TRADE cv0 throughout. undeployed, nothing queued into the 08-03 ISM / 08-05 LLY / 08-07 NFP ladder.

Latest & archive All books

Recommendations

0 to acquire · 0 to dispose

NO ACTION — nothing cleared the bar.

Outcome & track record

Accuracy at the time of this record.

28 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →

-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.

21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Earlier record 30 July 2026 1 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE, 1 QUEUE WITHDRAWN. IBB -- BUY AT MARKET @,, stop, execute at the 2026-07-31 open. The FOMC sell-off was erased in one session by the largest single-day market-cap gain ever recorded (Microsoft +15.5%, Azure past $100bn), Nasdaq +2.78% and SMH +6.88% -- and every name that led prints NO TRADE cv0 while all three actionable BUYs were the day's laggards. IBB is taken because it is the first candidate in five weeks to pass the arithmetic gate the book has declined everything on: its own 4-week estimate (+2.98%) exceeds its stop distance (2.22%), its stop is properly sized at 1.21 ATR rather than the sub-ATR stops that make this family's 0.667 stop-first rate self-fulfilling, it closed BELOW its anchored VWAP so the at-market entry is not a chase, and it built over four sessions off WATCH rather than spiking. It is still the -3 FailedBreakdown family and it still underperformed a +1.66% tape, which is why it takes the standing unit and works the 4-week objective, not the 12-week. SKYY carries the book's highest adjusted conviction (75) and is declined anyway -- a 0.58 ATR stop on a 0.667-stop-first family, a 4-week estimate (+0.61%) smaller than the distance to that stop, and decisively a cloud ETF that managed +1.06% on the day Azure crossed $100bn. XLF fails the floor at 63 with all three forward tenors below its own entry. The 07-29 XLE limit is withdrawn unfilled -- the price never came within 1.9% of it and conviction went. -> 24.7%, preserved. Later record Latest record This is the most recent record.