Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 QUEUED ACQUIRE (repriced), 0 at-market ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 0 withdrawals. Sixteen of twenty-two funds print no actionable signal and eleven print conviction zero - the board did not sell off, it went blank. Four names carrying 85+ conviction yesterday (AIQ, QQQ, XLK, and XLV's 60) are at zero today. XLF's live order survives on merit but with a two-point margin instead of twenty-three.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 58.16 | BUY — QUEUED @57.20 | 57.20 | 56.64 | 58.28 (+1.9%) | 58.62 (+2.5%) | 57.71 (+0.9%) | Financials sit right on their own average price after a soft-consumer session, and this remains the only genuinely trending name on a board where sixteen of twenty-two funds now print no signal at all - so the existing order is repriced to buy the dip rather than withdrawn. The limit of is 1.65% below the close, sitting on the fund's volume-weighted average price and just under its 20-day average, with a stop 1.0% lower and a two-to-one payoff to the objective. The news is a mild headwind rather than a veto: July retail sales fell 0.6% and the 10-year yield dropped 5bp to 4.69%, which trims both the consumer-credit and the net-interest-margin stories banks have been riding - reason enough to hold the size rather than reach for it. OPERATIONAL: REPRICE of the live 08-13 order ( ->) under the Step 7 provenance rule - same family, live Entry_Price, neither auto-withdraw condition met (conviction 67 >= 65; expires_on 08-18 not passed). EXPIRY DELIBERATELY NOT RE-BASED to 08-19: a reprice is not a new order and re-basing the clock each session is how a zombie limit is born; two sessions remain (08-17, 08-18), then WITHDRAW, do not re-extend. CONVICTION FELL (Trend, Momentum and Buy_Rank, so adj 67 clears the 65 floor by only two points - ADDED HARD TRIGGER: if the next print puts adj below 65, withdraw immediately without waiting for the expiry. Entry range - (+/-0.25 ATR); Entry_Distance_ATR -2.01; stop is a real 1.17 ATR, not the anticipate family's 3.00-ATR pin. SE-2 FIRES: Est_12W < Est_4W < the close - work as a <=4-week TACTICAL SWING with a planned exit, never a position hold. 1wk estimate carries a LOW-RELIABILITY flag (calib_1w -0.068, ninth straight degenerate session, SE-3/L5). THE GATE NOTHING ELSE PASSES: Est_4W +2.48% vs a 0.98% stop = 2.53x (anticipate cards 0.28x / negative / 0.37x; XLP 0.63x; DXYZ 0.06x). SIZING IS BRANCH-DEPENDENT: model wants (49.24% x x buy_pct 20% = / 57.20) - note the model HALVED the size itself, 85.49% -> 49.24% on the STRONG BUY -> BUY downgrade, so yesterday's upsize figure is SUPERSEDED. HELD AT = because IF the 08-07 XBI card filled it consumed of the, leaving - a 99.86% draw leaving. STANDING UPSIZE INSTRUCTION: if XBI is recorded SKIPPED, raise to, NOT 598. FILL RISK: seventh consecutive below-market limit in nine sessions, the prior six ALL expired unfilled, and no_chase_queue reads as a COST (n=21, median withheld +2.23% 1wk / +5.49% 4wk). Counter: the 2.53x ratio only exists because the entry is below the market - buying at turns +2.48% into +0.79% and the card would not clear the floor. Work as written or not at all. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 157.41 | WATCH | 157.41 | 154.96 | 158.05 (+0.4%) | 157.09 (-0.2%) | 161.09 (+2.3%) | Biotech was the day's quiet reversal: the fund traded down through its protective level to in the morning and was bought back hard, closing at - within a whisker of the session high - while the model's read came back from no-signal to a buy. It stays a hold, not a sale and not a re-buy: the written exit test asks for a decisive CLOSE below the risk line and the close finished above it. OPERATIONAL - READ THIS FIRST: THE STOP WAS TOUCHED INTRADAY FOR THE FIRST TIME. Low went through the stop by / 0.51%. A resting GTC stop-market order WOULD HAVE FILLED at roughly, closing the position at about - / -0.65%; on the written close-based rule ('a decisive close below ', 08-13 card) it is STILL HELD and marked ( x) = + / +0.92%. The book cannot resolve which state it is in from its own files - see systemic finding 1 (recorded stops carry no stated intraday-vs-close basis; of swing on one position). DOCTRINAL ANSWER IS HOLD. Neither dispose leg fired: no decisive close below stop, and today printed BUY 69 not a second consecutive NO TRADE. L2's stop-break + negative-12wk combo does not fire (Est_12W above the close). NOT profit-armed (gain = 0.39 ATR vs the 3.0-ATR arm, no Exit_Warning code) so no ADR-0012 tick can fire. KEEP STOP ON A CLOSING BASIS - never widen, and the model's own is lower so there is nothing to adopt; note that as a resting intraday order now sits ABOVE the session low, i.e. inside the noise it just survived. TIGHTENED NEXT-SESSION DISPOSE TRIGGER: a decisive close below disposes; ADDITIONALLY a close below on any print that is not a clean BUY now disposes, because the low has established that the level trades. NOT AN ADD despite adj 67: Est_4W sits BELOW the entry, the family is the -2 SE-1 cell, and a fresh card would double a position the book cannot confirm it owns while drawing on already 99.86% committed to XLF. UNRECONCILED 08-07 fill, ADR-0019, FOURTEEN sessions - run `trade buy sectoretf XBI` or `trade skip sectoretf XBI`. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
30 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.