Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 58.26 | BUY — QUEUED @57.79 | 57.79 | 57.11 | 58.43 (+1.1%) | 59.27 (+2.6%) | 58.55 (+1.3%) | Financials remain the destination of the rotation out of chips and AI hyperscalers, and XLF is again the single best-constructed order on this board: rank 1, STRONG BUY, and the only buy on the one family this book's own record actually favours. The fund set a record close on 28 Jul after its best month since Jan 2025 and touched a fresh all-time high this week, and the entry is a genuine pullback to the VWAP rather than a chase of that strength. REPRICE, NOT A NEW IDEA: yesterday's GTC limit went UNFILLED - the 08-26 low was, 30c above the limit, and the fund never traded down to it. Per the action-price provenance rule the stale is withdrawn and the order is republished at the LIVE Entry_Price with a fresh 3-session clock (expires 2026-08-31). Conviction eased on a -0.09% session but the signal, family, rank and structure are unchanged. Economics: risk /sh = 1.16 ATR; payoff 2.18x on Est_4W and 2.00x on Target_Price - the two conventions AGREE again, which is the tiebreak that carried this name yesterday and still does. Limit sits 0.81% below the close, on the VWAP between EMA10 and EMA20, EMA ladder stacked 5-through-200, RSI 61.4, Trend pillar 92. No-chase applies because the close is within 0.26% of the 52-week high. SE-2 FIRES on the flat-horizon leg (Est_12W BELOW Est_4W) - this is explicitly a <=4-WEEK TACTICAL SWING with a planned exit near the four-week horizon, NOT a position hold. CAVEAT: PullbackBuy_VWAP is actionable at n=8 with bias +0 but hit_4w is only 0.167, and this trade is built on the four-week leg. RISK: NVIDIA reported after the 08-26 close, so the 08-27 tape carries the full reaction; XLF is the least NVDA-exposed name in the pool and a weak print plausibly accelerates the rotation driving it. VOID CONDITION: if the 08-27 or 08-28 open gaps BELOW the stop, do not fill - cancel and re-evaluate. Jackson Hole (Warsh keynote 08-28, 10:00 ET) is the live two-sided event for a rates-sensitive sector; sticky July core PCE at 3.7% y/y is the hawkish tail. L8: action price is the 08-26 settled-close reference; horizons and the scorecard grade from the EXECUTION date and price. · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 117.16 | SELL ALL | 117.50 | 117.50 | 117.74 (+0.2%) | 118.84 (+1.1%) | 125.76 (+7.0%) | The stop did its job: consumer discretionary broke down and this position is out at for a small, contained loss rather than an open-ended one. XLY traded through the stop intraday on 08-26 (low) AND closed below it at - a stop break confirmed twice, on both the intraday tape and the settled close. Exit reason: DECISIVE STOP-LOSS BREAK, which is a valid sell basis on its own and is explicitly unaffected by the G1-G3 trim-discipline gates (those govern divergence/valuation trims on uptrends, not stop breaks). Conviction has collapsed 30 points in three sessions - -> - and the label degraded BUY -> WATCH while the fund fell on both a flat and a rising tape. News CONFIRMS the technical: XLY's bullish trend since 2009 is in jeopardy with lower highs since Jan 2026 and a 5.9% drawdown from the peak, on record-low consumer confidence, inflation eroding discretionary spend and capital rotating to AI infrastructure; July core PCE printing 3.7% y/y on 08-26 is another squeeze on the same consumer. HONEST QUALIFIER - L2 does NOT fire: Est_12W is still +7.34% above the close, so the twelve-week view is positive and this exit is taken on the stop alone, not on a dead forward view. That is the correct reading of a stop: it is a risk line, not a forecast. BRANCH CONTINGENCY (ADR-0019): input/sectoretfportfolio.json shows, so on the literal-JSON branch there is nothing to sell and this card is a no-op. On the INSTRUCTED branch - the 08-24 card that told the book to buy at the 08-25 open, filled at, never recorded - the GTC stop executed on 08-26 at for against a cost = - (-0.77%), and returns to. Required to close this out: 'trade buy sectoretf XLY 166 118.41' followed by 'trade sell sectoretf XLY 166 117.50', or 'trade skip sectoretf XLY' if the original buy was never taken. RE-ARM: no re-entry until XLY prints conviction >=65 on a pullback family with Est_4W above the close. · news |
| — | Energy Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | DECLINED on economics, not on the story - and the story here is genuinely good, which is why this is the closest call on the board. XLE clears the conviction floor at adj 67 (raw 69, bias -2) and the macro CONFIRMS: energy is the No.1 sector of 2026, up ~33% YTD past tech and the AI boom, on high oil prices, refining margins and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to shipping since late February. It fails the payoff bar. Under the Est_4W convention this book has used since 08-21, reward is (63.07 - 62.43) = against of risk (stop, 0.93 ATR) = 0.57x - well under the bar. The Target_Price convention says 2.16x, so systemic finding 1 recurs for a third straight session: the two payoff methods disagree by nearly 4x on the same name, and the bar is still not written down. Three further marks against acting today: the order is AT-MARKET with Entry_Distance_ATR 0.0 - no pullback, no discount, and the fund closed +0.60% after a 2.7% intraday range; the signal is a SINGLE print, having gone NO TRADE -> 0 -> BUY 69 in one session with no stability behind it; and L1 explicitly discounts FailedBreakdown_Up_20D chases, a family running hit_4w 0.30 at n=13. WHAT ARGUES THE OTHER WAY, recorded so the counterfactual can price it: Est_12W is +5.46% above the close, the strongest twelve-week forward view of any floor-clearing name on this board, and unlike XLF it does NOT trip SE-2. RE-ARM: a PullbackBuy_VWAP or MomentumContinuation_Up print with an entry below the close, a stop inside 1.5 ATR, and Est_4W far enough above the entry to pay >=1.5x. Energy is also the sector most exposed to a Hormuz de-escalation headline, which is a gap risk in the direction this order would be long. |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 168.39 | WATCH | — | 160.10 | n/a | 172.30 | 176.99 | HOLD, stop unchanged at, on the unresolved 08-07 branch. The signal collapsed BUY 63 -> NO TRADE 0 in a single session on Conflicted consensus with the Momentum pillar at just 14 against Trend 83, and the fund gave back -0.42% to after yesterday's +3.00% leadership. That is one NO TRADE print, not two consecutive, so the sustained-NoTrade exit case does NOT fire. PROFIT-TAKE ARM CHECK (ADR-0012): NOT ARMED - gain from the branch cost is = 2.72 ATR against the 3.0 threshold, T12 progress is 59.1% against 90%, and Exit_Warning is blank. No trim and no fired tick. TRAIL CHECK: chandelier = close - 2.0 x ATR =, which is BELOW the recorded, so no raise is available; the stop is HELD and never widened. On the taken branch ( @ =) the position is worth = + (+7.96%), down today. ADR-0019: EIGHTH straight session carried as hold-pending; 'trade buy sectoretf XBI 217 155.98' or 'trade skip sectoretf XBI' still required, and the ledger-vs-memory cost-basis divergence (vs) is still unreconciled. |
| — | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | DECLINED - and the two-session 'nearest miss' case has now BROKEN rather than matured. SKYY was 58 for two straight sessions on a well-built pullback limit; today it rose +0.80% to and conviction FELL to 54 while the label degraded BUY -> WATCH and the order type reverted from a limit to AT-MARKET. The book gets the useful half of both outcomes: the fund went up, but the setup the book was waiting for dissolved instead of triggering, so the discipline cost nothing it can be blamed for. 11 points below the floor. Payoff on Est_4W is 1.44x against a / 1.00-ATR stop - acceptable, but conviction is the binding constraint. RE-ARM UNCHANGED: conviction >=65 with a PullbackBuy_VWAP limit intact below the close. |
| — | Global X AI & Tech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | DECLINED - and yesterday's decline is VINDICATED twice over. AIQ was declined on 08-25 at BUY 76 purely on economics (Est_1W below the close, 0.40x four-week payoff, a 0.50-ATR sub-ATR stop); one session later the fund is FLAT (-0.02%) and the signal has fallen below the conviction floor on its own, BUY 76 -> WATCH 63. The economics are no better: Est_4W is only +0.55% above the close and the stop is again a sub-ATR artefact at = 0.50 ATR. NVIDIA reported after today's close and AIQ is among the most exposed funds on this board to that reaction - a further reason not to hold a marginal setup into it. Est_12W (+8.39%) remains the constructive long-horizon read if a real pullback entry ever prints. |
| — | iShares Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 - yesterday's ANTICIPATE-slot rejection is VINDICATED in one session. IBB printed BUY - ANTICIPATE at conviction 73 on 08-25 and was declined for failing the 2-of-3-snapshot count (and on a 0.16x payoff against 3.00 ATR of risk anyway); today it collapsed to NO TRADE at conviction 0 on Conflicted consensus, Momentum 24, and fell -0.54%. RSI still elevated at 69.7 and the close is 0.87% under the 52-week high. ADR-0019: the 08-06 gap-guard card and the 07-30 card both remain open - 'trade skip sectoretf IBB' still required, now 23 sessions. |
| — | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, second straight session - Conflicted (Trend 72 / Momentum 24), RSI 66.0, no order to evaluate. DECLINE-STREAK LEDGER: first declined 08-08 at; gold closed today after falling -1.58%, the worst print on the board, so the running forgone cost NARROWED from +7.43% to +5.73% - the first material improvement in this book's largest open decline cost. Had an order printed it would have failed again on leg 1: Est_4W is -3.27% BELOW the close, an even wider inversion than yesterday. Re-arm unchanged. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 - the 08-24 queue withdrawal is now VINDICATED outright, not merely at zero cost. XLV was withdrawn at a limit; the fund never came near it, fell -1.00% to today, and the signal has now walked the full ladder down STRONG BUY 85 -> BUY 72 -> WATCH 61 -> NO TRADE 0 in four sessions. SE-2 still fires hard: Est_12W is -3.12% BELOW the close. The written re-arm is NOT satisfied. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, second straight session - the 08-24 decline of a STRONG BUY at conviction 85 on a 0.92x payoff is now vindicated across two sessions and -1.35% cumulative (-1.06% then -0.29% to). Ranging regime, Conflicted consensus, Momentum 24, RSI 53.8. This remains the cleanest evidence the book has that the payoff bar screens out real weakness rather than merely being timid. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 despite being the BEST fund on the board today at +1.09% to - a clean example of price and signal diverging. Indeterminate consensus, Trend 56 / Momentum 43 / Volatility 27, RSI 45.2, and the close is still below EMA10/EMA20/EMA50. Est_4W is BELOW the close (SE-2). No order, nothing to act on. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, fourth straight session. Bounced +0.26% to but remains 21.4% below its 52-week high with the close under EMA5/10/20/50, RSI 44.6, Indeterminate consensus. Est_12W is -4.57% BELOW the close (SE-2). NVIDIA reported after today's close - the 08-27 tape decides this fund's next leg and there is deliberately no position in front of it. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, fourth straight session - flat at -0.01% to, 17.3% below the 52-week high, close under EMA5/10/20/50, RSI 45.1, Indeterminate. Est_12W is -1.32% BELOW the close (SE-2). Same NVIDIA read-through as SOXX; no position into the print. |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 - fell back from yesterday's +6.94% spike with a -0.29% print to, and the signal gave up WATCH 48 for NO TRADE on Conflicted consensus (Trend 78 / Momentum 24). The only non-ETF row in the book: OVERVALUED_VS_RI at MoS -0.78 on a 76-day-stale fairvalue snapshot, so the reading is carried for the record and given no weight. Still 52.6% below its 52-week high. |
| — | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID, fourth straight session - the only structurally bearish signal in the book. Consolidation_Bearish at Trend 36 / Momentum 29, RSI 38.6, price below EVERY EMA from, and -34.7% from its 52-week high. Long-only mandate: AVOID means no action, never a short. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 61, 4 below the floor. Ties out to the tape to the basis point: DIA -0.19% against the Dow's reported -0.2%. Consolidation_Bullish, Trend 78, RSI 54.3, but Est_1W is BELOW the close and the Est_4W payoff is only 0.78x against a stop. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 49, 16 below the floor. SPY +0.02%, essentially flat, matching a session in which the S&P slipped just below the flat line on sticky July core PCE (3.7% y/y) with everything waiting on NVIDIA after the close. Est_4W pays 2.29x on a stop, but conviction is nowhere near. |
| — | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 51, 14 below the floor. +0.09% into the NVIDIA print, RSI 49.3, Ranging. Est_12W (+6.39%) is constructive but there is no order worth taking in front of the single largest event risk in this book's universe. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 39, 26 below the floor and conviction FELL 10 points today on a -0.10% session. Small caps remain the weakest breadth read on the board. |
| — | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 51, 14 below the floor. Flat at -0.06% into the NVIDIA print - the most directly exposed fund in the book to tomorrow's reaction, and deliberately unowned into it. |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 57, 8 below the floor but conviction ROSE 6 points on a +0.61% session - the strongest improving trend among the sub-floor names. Est_12W is +10.07% above the close, the best twelve-week read in the book. Blocked by the floor and by the NVIDIA print landing tonight; worth watching for a floor-clearing pullback entry once that reaction has settled. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 47, 18 below the floor, and conviction FELL 9 points on a flat session. Trend pillar only 50, close under EMA5/10/20/50, RSI 47.7. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
34 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.