Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 64.77 | BUY | 64.72 | 61.07 | 64.77 (+0.1%) | 65.83 (+1.7%) | 68.18 (+5.3%) | Energy is the one sector with a live bid and a hard catalyst behind it: US Central Command struck Iranian targets and two tankers were hit leaving the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent above and XLE closed +1.27% at a fresh 52-week high on a day the S&P fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. That is relative strength earned against the tape, not with it, and the fund carries the board's only Trending regime with a fully stacked EMA ladder. We are buying the supply shock with a genuinely wide stop rather than a cosmetic one. OPS: STRONG BUY cv78 (adj 78), Buy_Rank 1, second consecutive STRONG BUY print. Buy-stop sits BELOW the close so it is immediately marketable at the open; entry range - (Entry +/- 0.25 ATR). Sizing: 85.49% x x 20% =, capped by 60% max_position_pct applied to DECLARED capital = (cap BINDING) -> =; reserve retained into 09-04 payrolls. Stop is a real 3.11 ATR / -5.64%; risk 463 x = = 3.38% of book -- the largest single-position risk this book has proposed, stated deliberately. WEAKNESSES, NOT SMOOTHED OVER: (a) Est_4W payoff is only 0.30x on the (Est_4W-Entry)/(Entry-Stop) convention -- the model sees just +1.7% of four-week upside against a 5.6% stop; (b) RSI 70.5 and 0.28% off the 52-week high; (c) this is the same name whose GTC was withdrawn unfilled on 08-28 at -- we are re-entering 3.3% higher, and that withdrawal cost 5.97% measured to today; (d) GAP RISK IS ASYMMETRIC -- a Hormuz de-escalation headline can gap through a 5.6% stop overnight, which no stop protects against. Taken because the driver is current and physical rather than narrative, because BreakoutUp_20D is report-only in this book (n=2, no bias applied) rather than the discounted FailedBreakdown family, and because the no_chase_queue counterfactual reads [cost] at median +2.23%/1wk -- withholding has been this book's more expensive error. SE-2 does NOT fire: Est_12W > Est_4W > close, non-inverted. SE-3 flag: calib_1w = -0.08, the 1wk print (, +0.08%) is low-reliability; the f=0.30 fallback gives (+3.39%) instead -- a wide divergence, so do not lean on either. L6 does not fire (no earnings gap). L8: executes at the 2026-09-02 open; reprice if it gaps >1.5%. · news |
| — | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined on a news override, and it was the closest call of the day. The pre-registered 08-28 re-arm fired on all three legs -- close inside the -162 band, conviction 73 >= 69, stop widened to 1.16 ATR > 1.0 -- and PullbackBuy_VWAP is the L1-favoured family and this book's only non-negative actionable cell (bias +0). What kills it is that the pullback has a named, live, ongoing cause rather than being noise: the 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-year high of 4.8% and SKYY fell 2% against QQQ's 1%, precisely because debt-heavy cloud and AI-infrastructure names absorb rate shocks hardest (Oracle -4%, Nebius -3% the same session). A mean-reversion entry into an active repricing is buying the mechanism, not against it -- and there are two more scheduled amplifiers inside seven sessions (09-04 payrolls, 09-11 CPI, both high confidence). It also carries the weakest forward expectancy of the four floor-clearing candidates: +0.50 ATR at 4wk, +1.53 ATR at 12wk, and the cell's hit_4w is 0.167 (n=10) -- it reaches 1wk targets half the time but rarely holds. RE-ARM: take it once the 10-year stops making new highs or after the 09-04 payrolls print resolves, with conviction still >=69 and price holding above EMA20 -- or on any session where SKYY outperforms QQQ on a red tape. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined on stop geometry despite the board's best forward expectancy. XBI closed +0.55% green on a rate-shocked red tape, prints the best four-week read on the board (+1.42 ATR, Est_4W = +3.9%) and a non-inverted +7.3% twelve-week leg, and biotech's 2026 driver -- decade-high M&A volume, clinical data, clearer policy risk -- is the least yield-sensitive story in the growth complex. The disqualifier is the stop: is exactly 0.50 ATR, the hardcoded FailedBreakdown family constant, i.e. a 1.37% stop on a fund whose daily ATR is 2.74%. Its headline 2.83x Est_4W payoff is manufactured entirely by that undersized denominator, and this book's own record confirms the cost: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy is n=14, hit_1w 0.385, hit_4w 0.30, historic stop_first ~0.667 (SE-1, live bias -2). It is also a single-print flip out of three consecutive NO TRADE cv0 prints -- no stability behind it. Paying to be stopped out on noise is not a trade at any size. RE-ARM: take it on a print where the stop widens past 1.0 ATR, or on a SECOND consecutive BUY print with conviction >= above EMA20. |
| — | iShares Biotechnology ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined on a dead four-week leg -- the same biotech tailwind as XBI but none of the payoff. Est_4W is +0.48% over the entry (+0.23 ATR), which is SE-2 territory: a flat forward horizon on an otherwise-bullish ETF print, to be treated as a <=4-week tactical swing at best and not worth the slot. Same 0.53-ATR family stop and same -2 FailedBreakdown haircut as XBI, and the same single-print flip out of three NO TRADE cv0 prints. Between the two biotech vehicles XBI is the better expression and it was itself declined. RE-ARM: only if Est_4W lifts meaningfully above the close with the stop widening past 1.0 ATR. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Below the floor at 64 adjusted, and the forward view is dead anyway. Raw 66 minus the -2 FailedBreakdown haircut lands one point short of 65, and Est_12W sits 2.0% BELOW the close while Est_4W is +0.09% -- SE-2 fires on both legs. Healthcare was genuinely bid (+0.66% on a red tape) and the trail is stable (BUY -> 66), but the stop is 0.50 ATR and the payoff 0.13x. RE-ARM: needs Est_12W positive versus the close AND conviction at 65+. |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Blocked by the hard quality gate -- Quality_Pass = False (F-Score/FCF screen failed), which blocks new entries outright. It is the only non-ETF row with a valuation read: OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS_FV -0.78 -> val_adj -4, taking. That valuation is 83 days stale (FetchedAt 2026-06-11, price marked vs today's), so the gate is applied with a staleness caveat -- but a PullbackBuy on a -1.65% session in a closed-end vehicle trading 57% below its 52-week high, with a /sh (8.6%) stop, is not a slot contest we need to enter. Also the entry sits ABOVE the close. |
| — | Technology Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 63, not in the buy pool. Fell -1.53% on the yield shock; close is now BELOW EMA20 for the first time in the window. Ranging regime, RSI 49.8, Portion 0. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 54 after a four-session slide BUY -> 67 -> WATCH 54, and it closed -0.88% despite rising yields. Entry is 1.24 ATR ABOVE the close, so the print is not actionable. The 08-28 re-arm (Est_12W back above Est_4W with conviction >=70) is not met: Est_12W < Est_4W. |
| — | Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 54, +0.32% -- defensive bid intact but Est_4W is BELOW the close. Nothing to act on. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 35 -- a 40-point conviction collapse over four sessions (BUY -> WATCH as the index fell -0.69% through EMA20. The book-wide read: this is a risk-off tape, not a dip. |
| — | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 52, -1.27%, closed below EMA20 and EMA50. Est_12W is still +8.2% but the near-term tape is the rate shock. The 08-28 re-arm (a green close holding above EMA20) is not met. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH 35, -0.72%, below EMA20 and EMA50. The Dow fell 374 points. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Flipped to AVOID 52 on a RallySell_BearTrend print after -1.72%; RSI 42.5 and price below EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 simultaneously. Long-only, so no action, but the 08-28 'watch whether the cyclical rotation has legs' question is answered: it did not. |
| — | Procure Space ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID 28 -- the board's weakest name for a fifth session, -1.99%, RSI 32.3, below EMA20/50/200. Long-only, no action. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -2.05%. The semiconductor read is now blind for a SIXTH consecutive session (see systemic finding 3) and AVGO reports after the close on 09-02. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -2.10%, eighth consecutive cv0 print. Same blindness as SMH. |
| — | Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -1.93%; collapsed STRONG BUY 85 -> WATCH 62 -> BUY 67 -> NO TRADE 0 over four sessions. The 08-27 no-chase decline is now vindicated twice over. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -2.28% -- long-duration speculative growth taking the yield shock hardest. |
| — | SPDR Gold Shares | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 and -2.86%, a second heavy down session. Notable: gold FELL on a day of US airstrikes on Iran, which says the bond sell-off and the real-rate move dominated the geopolitical bid. The 08-08 decline streak now stands at roughly -0.4% versus the entry reference -- the cost of that decline has fully closed. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -1.14%, RSI 38.4 and below EMA20/50. Small caps take the yield shock directly. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0, -1.37%, RSI 30.4 -- the most oversold name on the board and 4.2% below EMA20. Watch for a washout print, but the engine sees nothing. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
37 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.