Recommendations
3 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 70.43 | BUY — QUEUED @69.82 | 69.82 | 66.21 | 70.78 (+1.4%) | 71.56 (+2.5%) | 78.44 (+12.3%) | Mega-cap tech broke to a 52-week high on the day Fed Governor Waller signalled he would hold rates steady, collapsing September hike odds from 63% to 50% and pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.76% from its highest level since 2023. MAGS closed +2.43% with the highest conviction reading anywhere in the book (90) and the strongest forward view on the board -- a 12-week estimate 12.4% above the entry -- while still trading 4% below where it started the year, so this is a laggard breaking out rather than a leader extending. Queued below market at 69.82 rather than bought at the 70.43 close: no-chase (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.53, closed 0.5% off the session high). Stability is the weak point -- one STRONG BUY print after a NO TRADE two sessions back, and this name was withdrawn from the queue on 09-01 and declined on 09-02 -- so it leads on conviction, not on trail. BreakoutUp_52W cell is n=3, report-only, no bias applied. Widest stop of the three at 3.11 ATR; risk 646 USD = 1.29% of book. Executes into the 09-04 08:30 ET payrolls print -- reprice or stand down if the open gaps beyond ~1.5%. Expires after 3 sessions (09-07 is Labor Day). · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 163.92 | BUY — QUEUED @162.51 | 162.51 | 158.15 | 164.91 (+1.5%) | 164.49 (+1.2%) | 169.51 (+4.3%) | Cloud software was the single best performer in the book at +2.89%, and for two independent and nameable reasons at once. Falling interest rates lift long-duration software valuations more than anything else on the tape, and the 10-year fell to 4.76% after Fed Governor Waller signalled a rate hold; separately Snowflake surged 20.6% on 35% revenue growth, a large earnings beat and raised full-year guidance, describing enterprise-AI consumption as an accelerating flywheel -- which re-rated enterprise software broadly. This is the most stable signal in the book: four consecutive escalating bullish prints (62, 73, 73, 85) with no whipsaw, in a Trending regime, and it sits in the book's best-supported buy family (PullbackBuy_VWAP, n=11, actionable bias +1). Critically, the exact objection that caused this book to decline SKYY on both 09-01 and 09-02 -- rate-duration risk with the 10-year at a two-year high -- is the thing that reversed today. Queued 0.87% below the close (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.37) -- the shallowest and most fillable of the three limits. Note the 4-week estimate (164.49) sits below the 1-week (164.91) and barely above the close: per SE-2 run this as a tactical swing to the 171.24 target with a planned exit, not a position hold. Risk 331 USD = 0.66% of book. Executes into the 09-04 payrolls print; re-validate at the open. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 213.81 | BUY — QUEUED @208.85 | 208.85 | 204.23 | 213.81 (+2.4%) | 216.50 (+3.7%) | 225.33 (+7.9%) | Biotech holds a second consecutive STRONG BUY at identical conviction (79), the steadiest trail of today's three acquires, and carries the cleanest forward structure on the board -- 1-week, 4-week and 12-week estimates rising in order to 7.9% above the entry. The underlying case is real: a stronger drug-development cycle, a friendlier FDA, heavy M&A and AI-accelerated research pipelines have carried the group up more than 20% since semiconductors peaked in June. But the news no longer supports this the way it did yesterday, and that is said plainly: IBB closed exactly flat (+0.00%) and XBI fell 0.60% on a day the Dow rose 1.2%. Part of last week's healthcare bid was defensive, and defensives do not lead a relief rally -- fund flows into the group have been unimpressive all year despite the price. It is ranked third and sized accordingly rather than defended out of yesterday's conviction. REPRICE, not a rollover: the 09-02 queue at 207.06 never filled (session low 211.49) and is cancelled and replaced at the live 208.85 entry per the action-price provenance rule. The limit sits 2.38% below the close (Entry_Distance_ATR -1.24), a deeper pullback than any of the last three sessions produced -- treat a non-fill as the base case. Smallest risk of the three at 273 USD = 0.55% of book. Named risk: a hot 09-04 payrolls print sends the long end back up and long-duration biotech is sold first, filling this limit on the wrong kind of weakness -- re-validate at the open before letting the GTC stand through the print. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 58.56 | WATCH | 58.53 | 56.91 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financials rose 1.56% as the rate-hold signal steepened the path for bank margins without a recession scare, and XLF still prints BUY at conviction 70 on a fresh 52-week breakout. But this book cannot tell whether it owns it. The 09-02 card was a MARKET order with execute_on 09-03; XLF opened at 58.00 and closed at 58.56, so it should have filled at roughly 58.00 for -- yet input/sectoretfportfolio.json still shows. If taken, the book is long up about 81 USD with a stop at 57.14; if skipped, it missed the move. The system must not guess. Per the provenance rule it is neither re-recommended at the stale 57.93 nor abandoned: it needs a human disposition -- trade buy sectoretf XLF 144 58.00, or trade skip sectoretf XLF. This is the 28th consecutive run flagging ADR-0019 UNRECONCILED on this managed_by:human book; outstanding names are XLF, XBI, IBB, XLY, MAGS, XLE and now XLV. Live entry if re-armed is 58.53 buy-stop, stop 56.91. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv77, Buy_Rank 4, adj 76 -- the top near-miss. Closed +1.19% at 536.93, entry at market with Entry_Distance_ATR 0.0, and a respectable 2.34x reward-to-risk to the 546.24 target against a 532.94 stop. Ruled out on two counts: it is a one-print flip out of three consecutive WATCH readings (39, 35, 64, then BUY 77), and it sits in FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, the book's actionable-negative buy family (n=14, bias -1, hit_1w 0.429) that universal L1 and book lesson SE-1 both tell us to discount. Buying index beta at market 0.13% off the session high of a +1.2% day, 90 minutes before payrolls, is the chase this book is built to refuse. |
| — | Global X AI & Tech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv75, adj 74. Closed +1.93%, the third-best name on the board, riding the same falling-discount-rate lever that lifted SKYY. Clears the floor but loses the slot: whipsaw trail (BUY 67, NO TRADE 0, BUY 67, BUY 75), the discounted FailedBreakdown family, and an at-market entry 0.24% off the session high. SKYY expresses the same software-over-silicon theme with four stable prints and a holding-level catalyst instead. |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv75, adj 74. Closed +1.29% after being one of only two red names on 09-02 -- the rate-duration veto lifting in real time. Declined on structure, not direction: a single BUY print off a decaying WATCH trail (62, 63, 57), the FailedBreakdown family haircut, and an at-market entry at the high. The theme is bought via MAGS and SKYY with better stability and better forward views. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv75, adj 74. Closed +1.05% at 773.17, 0.11% off the session high. Broad index beta with no edge over the thematic acquires: 12-week estimate +2.2%, against MAGS at +12.4%. One-print flip from WATCH, FailedBreakdown family, at-market entry into a payrolls print. No action. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv66, adj 67 -- clears the floor by 2 points and is still declined. The trail is decaying (74, 69, 66) and it was one of only four red names today at -0.60% on a +1.2% Dow day, the clearest evidence that the defensive healthcare bid unwound with the rate scare. IBB carries the same theme with a stable double STRONG BUY and a materially better forward view; there is no case for owning both, and less for owning the weaker one. |
| — | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv65, adj 64 -- below the 65 floor by a single point after the FailedBreakdown haircut. Closed +1.19% with a 12-week estimate of 788.97 (+9.9%), genuinely attractive, but the trail is a mess (BUY 69, WATCH 52, NO TRADE 0, BUY 65) and MAGS expresses concentrated mega-cap tech with conviction 90 instead of 65. No action; would re-arm on a second consecutive BUY print. |
| — | Energy Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0, NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Closed -0.74%, one of four red names, completing a four-session collapse from STRONG BUY 85 to STRONG BUY 78 to BUY 63 to zero. This fully vindicates the 09-01 withdrawal of the 64.72 buy-stop. RSI still elevated at 67.6 with price 3.3% above EMA20 -- an extended name with no signal. No action. |
| — | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv68 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D, the strongest bearish read in the book for a second session (76 then 68). Closed +0.90% but RSI is 38.1 with price below EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 and a Consolidation_Bearish consensus. Long-only book: no action, and firmly off the buy list. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH cv44, well below the floor, and the only defensive on the board to close red at -0.32%. Perfectly consistent with the day's rotation: staples are sold when the rate scare that bid them up disappears. Conviction decayed in one session. No action. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', after two sessions of AVOID. Closed +1.39%, a strong move, but price sits within 0.2% of EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 simultaneously -- a genuinely undecided chart and an Indeterminate consensus. No action. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session. Closed +1.03% but RSI is 36.5 with price 2.4% below EMA20 and 2.8% below EMA50 -- a bounce inside a downtrend, not a turn. No action. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session, and the more diagnostic of the two semiconductor reads. Closed just +0.15% on a +1.3% Nasdaq day, with Broadcom falling 4% despite an earnings beat on soft Q4 guidance. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI 41.8. The AI trade has split into a bid software layer and an unbid silicon layer -- the most useful sector read this gauge produced today, and one that should propagate to ussemicon and ustech as context. No action. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session. Closed +0.39% against a +1.3% Nasdaq, below EMA20 and EMA50, RSI 45.7, Indeterminate consensus. Same silicon-layer non-participation as SOXX. No action. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0, back from an AVOID 69 print two sessions ago. Closed +0.97% but sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI 44.8 and an Indeterminate consensus. No action. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session. Closed +0.40%, badly lagging the +1.2% Dow -- small caps did not participate in the rate-relief rally, which is itself a caution on its breadth. Below EMA20, RSI 46.7. No action. |
| — | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session despite closing +1.85%, the fourth-best move on the board. Gold rallying alongside equities on a falling real yield is coherent, but consensus is Indeterminate and conviction is zero. Worth watching as a rate-cut proxy into the 09-15/16 FOMC. No action. |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY cv57, and the only non-ETF row in the book with an actual valuation read: OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS_FV -0.78, val_adj -4, Quality_Pass FALSE. Adjusted to 54, well below the 65 floor, and the quality gate would block a new entry regardless. Closed -1.38%, the worst name on the board, on a day everything rate-sensitive rallied -- its net-asset-value premium to private marks makes it a sentiment gauge rather than a tradeable. No action. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
39 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.