Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 64.77 | BUY — QUEUED @63.32 | 63.32 | 61.99 | 65.17 (+2.9%) | 65.74 (+3.8%) | 67.34 (+6.3%) | Energy is the year's leading sector and the oil bid got stronger today: Brent pushed to about and WTI above as Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect, and XLE closed +1.11% on a day the Dow fell 628 points. The signal is a genuine pullback entry rather than a chase -- the limit sits 2.24% below the close and within of the anchored VWAP -- and it offers roughly 3.8% of four-week upside against a 2.1% stop, the only candidate on the board today clearing 1.5x reward-to-risk. Valuation is blind on this all-ETF book, so the case rests on trend and geometry. OPERATIONAL: PullbackBuy_VWAP is the book's best live scorecard cell (bias +3, n=12, hit_1w 0.636), which agrees with ACTIVE learnings L1/SE-1 for the first time in weeks. Stop 61.99 = 1.16 ATR, properly sized (contrast the 0.50 ATR stops on the FailedBreakdown family). Sized / against a / full model -- capped by on the CONSERVATIVE branch that assumes all five prior unreconciled cards filled (committed, cash). Per SE-2 work this as a <=4-week tactical swing on the stop, not a position hold: the 12wk view is only +6.35%. Per SE-3/L5 the 1wk estimate is low-reliability (calib_1w -0.068 over 44 graded entries). Withdrawn three times before (08-28 @61.12, 09-01 @64.72, 09-02) and it went up each time. Event gate: August CPI 2026-09-11 lands inside the 1-week window and cuts both ways via energy pass-through; close is 1.14% under the 52wk high and the sector bull case is Hormuz-dependent, hence queued below market rather than taken at market. Auto-withdraw if conviction < 65 or expires_on passes. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 69.07 | NO ACTION | — | 66.21 | 69.51 | 70.02 | 77.11 | The Magnificent Seven basket has now printed NO TRADE with a Conflicted pillar consensus for a second consecutive session, with the weakest momentum score on the board (24) -- the exact test this book pre-committed to on 09-04 as an exit trigger. Against that, the close is clear of the stop and the twelve-week view is still +11.6%, so this is a half-position de-risk on signal degradation, not an exit. Two of its constituents had idiosyncratic bad weeks. OPERATIONAL: CONDITIONAL ON RECONCILIATION -- the 09-03 GTC limit at traded through on 09-04 (low, 0.87% through,) but input/sectoretfportfolio.json still shows, so the book cannot see the position. L2's stop-break-plus-negative-12wk basis is NOT met, hence 50% not 100%. Ledgered direction=none/optional=true so the counterfactual grader prices what not acting costs. Disposition required: 'trade buy sectoretf MAGS 179 69.82' or 'trade skip sectoretf MAGS'. Confirm the fill and this becomes a mandatory DISPOSE card at the next EOD. |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 64.32 | HOLD | 64.32 | 63.90 | 64.66 (+0.5%) | 64.90 (+0.9%) | 68.64 (+6.7%) | Held (if filled) rather than added to. The AI-and-tech barbell did exactly what it was bought to do -- it closed dead flat on a session where silicon rose and software fell -- but the engine has since downgraded it from STRONG BUY to WATCH in a single print, so it is no longer offered as an entry. Hold against the raised stop; do not add. OPERATIONAL: 09-04 card ( @, market, execute_on 2026-09-08) has ELAPSED and is undispositioned. 09-08 open was +0.30% vs the card price -- inside the L8 1.5% gap band, so it should have filled for. Conviction, adj 61, four points below the floor. Stop raised -> (live). NOT re-issued as a fresh acquire: that would double- the same cash. Disposition: 'trade buy sectoretf AIQ 136 64.51' or 'trade skip sectoretf AIQ'. NOTE: AIQ is listed TWICE in input/sectoretfportfolio.json -- de-dupe before recording the fill. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 187.87 | HOLD | 187.28 | 186.48 | 188.99 (+0.9%) | 190.22 (+1.6%) | 196.34 (+4.8%) | Technology is the strongest name on the board and the 09-04 call has improved rather than decayed: it escalated from BUY to STRONG BUY, carries the only momentum score above 60, and trades above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages with a +4.5% twelve-week view. Chips led the session on Intel +9%, Qualcomm +8% and Oracle +5%. Hold if filled. OPERATIONAL: 09-04 card ( @, market, execute_on 2026-09-08) has ELAPSED and is undispositioned. 09-08 open was +0.73% vs card -- inside the L8 band, should have filled for. Adj 84 would rank #1 among available acquires today but is deliberately NOT re-issued to avoid double-. Stop raised -> (live), though note that stop is only 0.50 ATR / 0.74% away -- inside daily noise (systemic finding 4). Disposition: 'trade buy sectoretf XLK 26 188.64' or 'trade skip sectoretf XLK'. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 718.36 | HOLD | 718.96 | 715.15 | 718.44 (-0.1%) | 729.97 (+1.5%) | 781.32 (+8.7%) | The Nasdaq-100 tracker held up best of the broad indices, closing essentially flat (-0.08%) on a day the Dow fell 1.18%, and it still carries the strongest forward view in the book at +8.8% over twelve weeks. The signal has been steady above the action floor for three prints. Hold if filled. OPERATIONAL: 09-04 card ( @, market, execute_on 2026-09-08) has ELAPSED and is undispositioned. 09-08 open was +0.28% vs card -- inside the L8 band, should have filled for. Conviction, adj 68, still above the floor. NOT re-issued (double-). Keep the higher stop rather than the live; both are only 0.50 ATR away. Disposition: 'trade buy sectoretf QQQ 7 720.97' or 'trade skip sectoretf QQQ'. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 159.62 | WATCH | 163.33 | 159.20 | 160.79 (-1.6%) | 160.43 (-1.8%) | 166.24 (+1.8%) | Cloud computing fell another 1.20% and is the one name in this book genuinely at risk: if the 09-03 limit filled, the position is 1.8% underwater and the close sits 42 cents above its stop, with the signal decaying across three consecutive prints. The model's own four-week estimate is now below the fill price. Hold on the stop and honour it without discretion. Declined as a NEW entry outright. OPERATIONAL: the printed 'Buy Limit @ ' sits +2.32% / +1.04 ATR ABOVE the close -- chase geometry mislabelled as a pullback (systemic finding 2), and Est_4W < entry means the model's own forward loses money from the fill. adj 65 is exactly at the floor and does not survive the geometry. Unconfirmed 09-03 fill: @ =, portfolio JSON still. A close below is the exit. Disposition: 'trade buy sectoretf SKYY 76 162.51' or 'trade skip sectoretf SKYY'. · news |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Top-ranked on the board after a +4.71% session, and declined anyway. It is the only name in this all-ETF book the valuation model can actually price, and it reads overvalued with a failed quality screen, which blocks new entries outright. The fundamental case agrees with the gate: this is a closed-end fund trading at a premium to net asset value whose largest holding, SpaceX at 16.2% of assets, faces a Day-90 underwriter lock-up expiry on 09-09 releasing up to 319 million shares, while Destiny itself runs a live billion at-the-market share offering. Buying a +4.7% day into that supply is not a setup worth taking. OPERATIONAL: cv86 + val_adj -4 + bias +3 = adj 85, Buy_Rank 1 -- BLOCKED by the hard quality gate (Quality_Pass = False). Applied with a staleness caveat: FetchedAt 2026-06-11, 90 days old, marked at vs today's. Consistent with the 09-02 precedent. |
| — | iShares Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Biotech fell 2.17% on a single clinical result -- Novartis's Lp(a) cholesterol trial failed, dragging the drug class down and taking Amgen -10% -- and the entry the model offers is above where the market closed. From that entry the four-week estimate is +0.35% against a stop 2.4% away, roughly 0.15x reward-to-risk. Declining a name into a fresh clinical shock at a limit above market is arithmetic, not caution. OPERATIONAL: 'Buy Limit @ ' vs a close = +1.30% ABOVE market, a de-facto market order wearing a pullback label (systemic finding 2). adj 65 is exactly at the floor and fails on geometry and R/R. The 09-04 withdrawal at is fully vindicated -- it has since fallen to. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Healthcare was the worst sector on the board at -2.52%, driven by the same Novartis Lp(a) trial failure hitting Amgen -10% and Eli Lilly, both major fund weights. Conviction has collapsed from STRONG BUY to WATCH across four prints and the model's twelve-week estimate of now sits BELOW the close. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: adj 37, far below the floor. Entry is +1.68 ATR above market. SE-2 forward inversion again (Est_12W < close). Trail ->. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financials fell 1.38% and the signal has now decayed for four straight sessions, from a BUY at 74 conviction down to a WATCH at 44. The model's twelve-week estimate of sits below today's close -- a dead forward view. No case here. OPERATIONAL: adj 43, 22 points below the floor. Trail ->. The long-running XLF unreconciled card from 09-02 is now stale beyond any price relevance and is treated as abandoned rather than re-priced. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Small-cap biotech fell 1.15% in the same clinical-failure downdraft that hit the large-cap healthcare names, and conviction has slipped for a third consecutive session to a WATCH. Below the action threshold. OPERATIONAL: adj 51. Trail ->. Est_4W is constructive but the signal does not clear the floor. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The broad market fell 0.55% as Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect and oil approached and the signal dropped back to a WATCH. Nothing actionable on the index itself. OPERATIONAL: adj 55, ten points below the floor. Close vs EMA20 -- just under. Ties out against S&P -0.58%. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The Dow was the worst major index, down 628 points or 1.18%, and the model flipped it to a bearish AVOID. This is a long-only book, so there is nothing to do but stay out. OPERATIONAL: AVOID cv35, RallySell_BearTrend. Trail ->. Stop sits ABOVE the close (short-side geometry), confirming the label direction. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Consumer discretionary fell 0.80% with a bearish AVOID label and a Consolidation_Bearish consensus -- tariffs on consumer goods including dairy and wood products took effect today. Long-only, so no action. OPERATIONAL: AVOID cv51 for a third print in four sessions. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Semiconductors rose 1.64% -- the second-best session on the board -- on Intel +9%, Qualcomm +8% on an Amazon data-center chip partnership and Oracle +5%. The model called it a bearish AVOID at 69 conviction. Long-only, so nothing was actionable either way, but the label is flatly contradicted by the tape and the news. OPERATIONAL: SYSTEMIC FINDING 1 -- FailedBreakout_Down_20D fired high-conviction bearish on one of the board's best performers for a SECOND consecutive session (09-04: cv76 on +3.52%). Blank Target_Price, stop == close. Engine defect candidate in the 20-day-window logic. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The other semiconductor tracker rose 1.19% on the same Intel/Qualcomm/Oracle strength and also printed a bearish AVOID. Long-only, no action. OPERATIONAL: SYSTEMIC FINDING 1, and worse here -- the row carries Pillar_Consensus 'Consolidation_Bullish' while the Action is AVOID: the label and the consensus disagree on the same row. 09-04 fired cv86 on a +2.61% session. Blank Target_Price, stop == close. |
| — | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Space technology rose 1.46%, the third-best session on the board, and printed a bearish AVOID at 75 conviction. Long-only, no action. OPERATIONAL: SYSTEMIC FINDING 1 -- third of four AVOID-on-strength instances this session. Blank Target_Price, stop == close. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Quantum computing rose 0.69% and printed a bearish AVOID at 75 conviction. Long-only, no action. OPERATIONAL: SYSTEMIC FINDING 1 -- fourth AVOID-on-a-green-session instance. Row carries Pillar_Consensus 'Consolidation_Bullish' against an AVOID action, same contradiction as SMH. Blank Target_Price, stop == close. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Small caps fell 0.45%, in line with the Russell's -0.52%, and the model printed NO TRADE for a fourth consecutive session on an indeterminate consensus. Nothing to act on. OPERATIONAL: NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', Transitional regime. |
| — | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Gold fell 1.73% on a day a trade war escalated and oil approached -- the most diagnostic print on the board, saying the real-rate move dominated the geopolitical shock. NO TRADE for a fourth straight session. OPERATIONAL: cv0, Indeterminate consensus, Transitional regime. Same signature as 09-01. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Industrials fell 0.48% with steel tariffs doubling from 25% to 50% today; the model has printed NO TRADE for four consecutive sessions. RSI 37 is the weakest on the board. OPERATIONAL: cv0, Indeterminate consensus despite a Trending regime. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Consumer staples fell 0.66% -- no defensive bid at all on a down day, which is itself the rate story -- and printed NO TRADE for a third consecutive session. OPERATIONAL: cv0, Indeterminate consensus. Canada's dairy tariffs hit this basket directly. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
44 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.