Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 65.14 | BUY — QUEUED @63.98 | 63.98 | 62.56 | 65.77 (+2.8%) | 66.22 (+3.5%) | 65.98 (+3.1%) | Energy is the strongest-built chart on the board and the only one offering a real pullback entry: XLE prints STRONG BUY at the top of the ranking, trades above every major moving average, and the model wants it 1.8% below Friday's close rather than at market. That combination -- best signal family, genuine discount to the current price, and a stop set a full ATR away rather than a fraction of one -- is why it is the single new position this week while four higher-profile tech names were passed over. Crude itself is deliberately not part of the case: oil fell 1.5% on Friday and XLE rose, one day after oil rose 5% and XLE fell, so the sector is not currently trading the commodity and no oil narrative is being borrowed to support the trade. OPERATIONAL: queued as GTC limit at the printed Entry_Price per Step 7 no-chase (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.94); expires 2026-09-16 (3 sessions). Sizing 85.49% x x 20% = / =, size_mod 1.0 (NA_ETF, valuation blind). Stop = 1.15 ATR / -2.22%, risk, R:R 2.01:1. SE-2 FIRES: Est_12W < Est_4W (inverted) -- size and time as a <=4-week tactical swing, never a position hold. SE-3/L5: calib_1w -0.098 (51 graded), 1wk directional only. ADV-1 noted, not acted on -- this is the 6th XLE queue and 5 prior expired unfilled; rule governs over counterfactual. Horizon: FOMC + dot plot 09-16, triple witching 09-18 both inside the 1wk window. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 69.89 | ADD | 69.89 | 69.43 | 70.34 (+0.6%) | 70.94 (+1.5%) | 77.70 (+11.2%) | MAGS is the only holding that never broke. While four other positions hit their stops and were sold during this week's four-day decline, the megacap-tech basket held its stop line and finished the week at breakeven, then turned back to a buy signal on Friday with the strongest twelve-week outlook on the board -- roughly +11% versus low-single-digit or inverted forecasts everywhere else. Adding to the one thing that demonstrated relative strength through the drawdown, in modest size and behind a defined stop, is a better use of capital than buying back the names that just failed. The clear risk is stated rather than worked around: Friday's inflation data pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next Wednesday to roughly 91%, and megacap tech is the most rate-sensitive part of this book -- hence a small increment with a tight stop, not a full position. OPERATIONAL: ADD to held ->, blended cost, = 35.1% of a book (max_position 60% x =, no bind). Sized on the NEW-BUY formula (49.24% x x 20% = / =) rather than x because the engine printed plain BUY not BUY-ADD (scan reads, ADR-0019) -- the conservative of the two. STOP RAISED -> (engine level, never-lower-a-stop); 0.49 ATR / -0.66%, risk on the increment, on the full line. STABILITY CAVEAT: trail alternates NT 0 / BUY 74 / NT 0 / BUY 78 -- admitted as FRESH, not stable, and not upsized on that account. SE-2 does NOT fire (12wk >> 4wk >> 1wk, the only correctly ordered term structure on the board). SE-3/L5 1wk reliability flag applies. PRE-COMMITMENT for next EOD: close below or 2 consecutive NO TRADE = exit; NO-TRADE counter reset to 0 on Friday's BUY print. Horizon: FOMC + dot plot 09-16, triple witching 09-18, Nasdaq-100 rebalance effective 09-21 -- all three touch this ETF. · news |
| — | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH cv57 -> adj 58, below the 65 floor. Full exit executed at the 09-11 open at (- / -2.84% vs cost, 70% of the week's realized loss, entirely execution lag -- L3). Now flat. |
| — | iShares Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH cv49 -> adj 51, below floor. Buy Limit is +3.69% / +2.05 ATR ABOVE the close -- a limit priced above market is a market order (Systemic 5, same name, unchanged from 09-10). |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | WATCH cv47, val_adj -4 (MoS_FV -0.78 x 5), bias +1 -> adj 44. Below floor and separately blocked by the hard quality gate (Quality_Pass=False). Only priced row in the book; valuation 93 days stale. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv64 -- bearish signal, long-only book, no action. Prints Consolidation_Bullish consensus against an AVOID action (Systemic 1). |
| — | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv65 -- bearish, long-only, no action. Closed +0.61%. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv64 -- bearish, long-only, no action. Closed +0.67%. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv75 -- bearish, long-only, no action. Closed GREEN +0.89% (Systemic 1 whipsaw). |
| — | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv68 -- bearish, long-only, no action. Closed GREEN +1.15% (Systemic 1 whipsaw). |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID cv57 -- bearish, long-only, no action. Closed GREEN +1.47%, 2nd-best on the board, one session after being 2nd-worst at -2.44% under the same AVOID print (Systemic 1). |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Best name on the board at +1.86%, one session after being the worst at -2.74% (Systemic 1). |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. One of only two red closes (-0.40%). |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. The other red close (-0.18%). |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. +0.97%, ties out vs Dow +0.9%. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. +0.41%, the weakest index proxy; RSI 38.68. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. +1.07%. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. +0.35%. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE cv0 -- 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. +1.24%. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
51 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.098 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.