Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
RECONCILE (16th cycle): the standing REIT de-risk's stop-break basis LAPSED — WITHDRAW ME8U + J69U; SG-8 BLOCKING flag suspends 9CI/A17U/O39; ACQUIRE NO ACTION
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 28.69 | NO ACTION | 28.69 | 27.69 | 28.56 (-0.5%) | 28.01 (-2.4%) | 28.66 (-0.1%) | Banking half of our OCBC gain remains the right trade — the stock is up 10.6% for us, has reached its twelve-week objective, is trading at a 1.9x book value against a 1.2x history after a 28% first-half run, and the momentum that justified holding it has died. But this same sale has now been logged three cycles running without ever executing, so we are freezing the card rather than issuing it a fourth time until the holdings file is reconciled. SG-8 blocking suspension, not a withdrawal. Armed on real Avg_Cost 25.93 (Gain_ATR 5.53, T12_Prog 100.1%) + 2 ticks: (c) dead 12wk 28.66 < 1.02x28.69, (d) 4x NO TRADE. MoS -0.61 > -3, no tier bump. Trail raised 27..69 (chandelier 2xATR) on the full 1,000 while frozen. Highest-value unexecuted card in the book. · news |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.49 | NO ACTION | 2.49 | 2.41 | 2.50 (+0.4%) | 2.54 (+2.0%) | 2.55 (+2.4%) | CapitaLand Investment carries the book's strongest sell label today and is our top-ranked disposal candidate, but this cleanup has been sitting unexecuted for several cycles, so we freeze it rather than reissue it. The case is also less clean than it looks: the stock closed above the model's own risk line, and independent analysis argues the shares are worth roughly 29% more than the market price on the back of an India and Australia funds expansion. Valuation cannot block a sell on this book, but it does argue against forcing one. SG-8 blocking suspension. SG-2 partially unmet: close 2.49 > scan stop 2.41 (below only the older recorded 2.58), 12wk +2.4%. Stop re-anchored 2..41 (the model's live line). STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv35 SellRank #1, Portion 80.07. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.49 | NO ACTION | 2.49 | 2.57⚠ | 2.50 (+0.4%) | 2.52 (+1.2%) | 2.54 (+2.0%) | The 400-unit Ascendas REIT stub is housekeeping rather than a trade, and its sell case weakened today as the model downgraded it from a firm reduce to a simple avoid. It stays frozen alongside the rest of the unexecuted queue until the holdings file is reconciled. SG-8 blocking suspension. Faded STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv74 -> AVOID cv50; still below stop 2.57 but 12wk +2.0% so SG-2's neg-12wk leg is unmet; MoS -7.86 -> SG-3/G2 artifact, no amplify. ~Sgross. CLAR 1H 07-31. |
| C07 | Jardine Cycle & Carriage | 26.87 | HOLD | — | 25.99 | 27.05 | 27.69 | 29.09 | Jardine Cycle & Carriage is the only genuinely cheap holding in this book — trading well below our estimate of intrinsic worth with a three-month view some 8% above today's price — so we are not selling it on a weak, historically unreliable bearish label. We are, however, moving our risk line down to where the model actually places it, because the old level had drifted above the market price and was generating false alarms. Re-anchored stop 27..99; exit on a decisive close below 25.99. STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv35 SellRank #2, -3.86% under the stale stop; §9/G3 forbid cutting a cheap name with a strong forward view.. JC&C 1H results 07-30, band +-4.0%, hold-through. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 42.66 | HOLD | — | 42.94⚠ | 42.72 | 42.87 | 43.36 | UOB dipped a fraction below our alert level but the signal actually improved today, moving from no-trade to a constructive hold, and of the three Singapore banks it is the least stretched after the sector's record-high run — 1.4x book against a 1.2x five-year average. This is a core holding to sit on, not trim. Breach is -0.65%, noise; 12wk +1.6% positive; MoS -0.59 > -3 -> SG-2 unmet, SG-4 bank-core hold. Stop 42.94. FOMC prices 07-30 (tighten-trail), MAS MPS on/before 07-31. · news |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Commercial Trust | 1.35 | HOLD | — | 1.31 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.32 | MPACT is the one holding deteriorating meaningfully today — conviction has halved, momentum is diverging from price, and the model's three-month view has slipped below the current price. That would normally trigger a partial profit-take, but we hold no reliable for this position, so the profit signal cannot be trusted and the unit is still above our risk line. We tighten and watch rather than sell. cv (-28, past the 20-pt bar), RSI_DIV, negative 12wk 1.32 < close 1.35 = 3 would-be ticks, all blocked by SG-7 (spurious PROFIT_ARMED, no real Avg_Cost). Trail 1.31 (= chandelier 2xATR); a settled close < 1.31 arms a 50% trim. MPACT 1Q 07-30. |
| BUOU | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust | 0.96 | HOLD | — | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | Our largest REIT holding stays on watch without action for a fourth cycle. It is still trading above the level at which we would cut, and each time a sell signal has appeared intraday it has evaporated by the close — three separate false alarms now. We wait for a settled break. AVOID cv43, close 0.965 > trail 0.94; FAIR_VALUE MoS -6.03 -> SG-3/G2 artifact, no amplify., ~S. Re-arm on a settled close < 0.94 or a SELL-REDUCE that survives to a settled close. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 71.90 | HOLD | — | 69.86 | 71.42 | 71.96 | 75.66 | DBS closed at a fresh high but is technically overbought and the model offers no trade here, so we hold what we own and decline to add into the extension. The Singapore banks have run hard into record territory this half; chasing that is how gains get given back. NO TRADE cv0, RSI 75.2 -> SG-4 no-chase. Stop 69.86. FOMC prices 07-30, MAS MPS on/before 07-31. · news |
| — | SATS Ltd | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SATS is the most interesting name we are not buying. It offers our preferred kind of entry — a pullback toward its average trading price rather than a chase — with a three-month view about 6% above today's close. But the buy signal faded to a watch at the close and the shares already trade above our estimate of what they are worth, which together leave it short of the bar. Faded BUY cv58 -> WATCH cv53, so not in the buy pool; adj 43 anyway (val_adj -10 from FAIR_VALUE MoS -2.28) vs the 65 floor. Re-arm on a BUY reprint at a non-extended entry near the 4.52 limit. |
| — | CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | CICT flashed an early-entry signal three days ago but has since gone quiet, and on our quality screen it is the most expensive name in the entire book relative to what we think it is worth. No position. Collapsed BUY-ANTICIPATE cv78 -> NO TRADE cv0; fails the anticipate slot on 1-of-3 stability (needs >=) and on the hard quality gate (Quality_Pass=False, MoS -42.24). Three independent blocks. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
95 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.