Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
RECONCILE (15th cycle): O39 profit-take ESCALATES 30%->50% (2 ticks), A17U flips to SellRank #1, BUOU whipsaw de-arms again, ACQUIRE NO ACTION
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.94 | SELL 50% | 1.94 | 1.90 | 1.94 (+0.0%) | 1.97 (+1.5%) | 2.02 (+4.1%) | Singapore's largest industrial and data-centre REIT is breaking down rather than basing: it closed at 1.94, below the model's 1.98 stop, on a failed-breakout signal, while its latest quarter showed year-on-year declines in both revenue and net income and our intrinsic work puts fair value near 1.55 — well under the market price. We sell half and keep half, so the position still participates if the 07-21 quarterly update surprises upward. Ops: 15th consecutive unexecuted cycle — carry at 50%, no size re-escalation (conviction improving. G2 suppresses the valuation amplify (Est_12W 2.02 > DCF 1.55). Keep 59,179 on trail 1.90 through the MIT 1Q update. L3/L7 (sg is parent — execute once). · news |
| J69U | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.26 | SELL 50% | 2.26 | 2.19 | 2.26 (+0.0%) | 2.27 (+0.4%) | 2.30 (+1.8%) | This retail REIT closed at 2.26, below its 2.32 stop, on a failed-breakout signal that has now persisted for weeks, and the forward view is essentially flat — roughly 2% over twelve weeks, which does not pay for the downside risk. We halve the position and hold the rest, since the selling pressure has been easing rather than accelerating. Ops: conviction improved and the formal SELL-REDUCE label faded to AVOID — standing stop-break carry only, no re-escalation. NA valuation, no amplify. Trail 2.19 on the kept 14,000. SG June CPI 07-23 (~4 td) touches it. L7. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 28.56 | SELL 50% | 28.56 | 27.50 | 28.39 (-0.6%) | 28.05 (-1.8%) | 28.49 (-0.2%) | OCBC has run 18% in a month and 38% year-to-date, and the rally has now stalled: the buy signal that carried it collapsed outright this session, the stock has reached its twelve-week price objective, and it trades at 1.9x book against a 1.2x historical average. We bank half the gain (about +10% on cost) and ride the rest on a raised trailing stop, because the underlying franchise — record income and growing wealth-management earnings — is still doing well. Ops: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 5.07, T12_Prog 100.25%) + 2 ticks fired -> profit_take_2 = 50%: (b) conviction, (c) dead 12wk (Est_12W 28.49 < 1.02x close). G1 n/a (cv0 — tick (b) removed the momentum label G1 protects). MoS -0.54 > -3, no valuation bump. Never 100% from profit-take alone. Ride 500 on trail 27.50 (chandelier ~2xATR). Escalation from the 07-16 30% tier — the momentum label that justified the minimum tier is now gone. L7. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.51 | SELL ALL | 2.51 | 2.44 | 2.51 (+0.0%) | 2.53 (+0.8%) | 2.57 (+2.4%) | The model turned decisively negative on this industrial REIT today — its strongest sell reading in the book, held steadily through every snapshot of the session — with the price below its stop and intrinsic value far under the market. The holding is a 400-share leftover worth about S: too small to matter to returns but still carrying full downside, so we close it out entirely. Ops: STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv74 SellRank #1, stable 4/4 (71/71/74/74), scan Portion 80.07 'target full exit'; monitor stop-breach 2.51<=2.57. Odd-lot cleanup carry, bundled below the <=3 headline. CL Ascendas 2Q 07-24 (~5 td) — the stop-break exception overrides the hold-through stance. L7. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.49 | SELL ALL | 2.49 | 2.58⚠ | 2.52 (+1.2%) | 2.57 (+3.2%) | 2.56 (+2.8%) | CapitaLand Investment closed at 2.49, below its 2.58 stop, and spent the session flipping between weak sell and avoid readings without ever recovering — a broken chart with no constructive signal. At roughly Sthe stake is too small to justify holding damaged exposure, so we exit in full. Ops: AVOID cv50, chopped SSR27/AVOID43/SSR34/AVOID50 through the session; monitor stop-breach 2.49<=2.58. Odd-lot cleanup carry. 12wk 2.56 exceeds DCF 0.95 — projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. L7. |
| BUOU | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust | 0.97 | NO ACTION | — | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | The book's largest REIT position flashed a sell signal during the session but finished the day back at a neutral reading, and the price is still holding above the level where we would act. We hold all on a tight stop at 0.94 rather than reacting to an intraday signal that did not survive to the close — the third time this pattern has reversed on us. Ops: STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv70 at 16:30 -> AVOID cv58 at the settled close. L4 (settled close authoritative) + SG-2 (needs stop-break + neg-12wk; 0.97>0.94 and 12wk +1.0% artifact) -> NO trim. 3rd whipsaw de-arm (07-08 arm de-armed 07-09). Re-arm -50% on a confirmed settled close <0.94 OR a SELL-REDUCE that survives to a settled close. |
| C07 | Jardine Cycle & Carriage | 27.12 | HOLD | — | 27.95⚠ | 27.40 | 27.91 | 28.84 | Jardine C&C is the one clearly cheap name in the book — trading below our estimate of intrinsic value with a twelve-week view about 6% above today's price. The technical reading is weak but not decisive, and we do not sell a cheap business with a positive forward view on a soft signal alone. Holding. Ops: AVOID cv46 (faded from 63), below stop 27.12<27.95 (monitor breach) but UNDERVALUED +0.64 Q=T + 12wk +6.3% -> CLAUDE.md Sec9 WATCH, no trim. News: none found. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 42.47 | HOLD | — | 42.94⚠ | 42.58 | 42.64 | 42.97 | UOB slipped about 2.4% to 42.47 and is now marginally under our stop, but the model has no active sell signal on it and the forward view is still mildly positive. It is one of the three bank cores that anchor this book, so we hold and watch rather than sell into a small pullback. Ops: NEW monitor breach 42.47<=42.94 (43..47). SG-2 unmet (12wk +1.2% positive, not negative); SG-4 bank-core hold; MoS -0.65 > -3. Flag only, no trim. Stop 42.94. |
| — | SATS Ltd | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SATS printed the book's best buy signal today, but it is already stretched after a strong run and our valuation work says the price has moved beyond what the business is worth. We would rather wait for a pullback than pay up here, so no purchase. Ops: BUY cv58 BuyRank #1 MomentumContinuation_Up, adj 48 after val_adj -10 (FAIR_VALUE MoS -2.21) -> below the 65 floor. RSI 74.0 extended; Buy Stop 4.69 > close 4.63. Family cell report-only (n=2). Re-arm on a non-extended reprint with a better MoS. |
| — | CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | CICT flashed a strong early-entry signal in the closing snapshot, but it appeared only once and the REIT fails our quality screen while trading far above any defensible estimate of intrinsic value — the widest such gap in the book. A single strong print is not enough to buy on. No position. Ops: BUY-ANTICIPATE cv78, adj 68 clears the floor BUT fails the anticipate slot on stability (1 of last 3, needs >=) AND Quality_Pass=False -> hard quality gate blocks the new entry. Scan mapper no-ops the label (systemic finding #3). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
90 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.