Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
26th cycle: DBS posts a RECORD Q2 and breaks out to STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 at BuyRank #1, taking the book's whole remaining; HMN's 12-cycle deferral finally ends as the 3rd close below stop lands with the signal at its strongest-ever STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv78; and BOTH 08-05 pending cards are UNRECONCILED — the S58 buy-stop was triggered intraday (high 4.96) and the O39 trim was never executed
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.08 | ADD | 75.07 | 72.50 | 75.06 (-0.0%) | 74.84 (-0.3%) | 79.04 (+5.3%) | DBS reported a record Q2 this morning - net profit up 9% to S08bn and total income through S$6bn for the first time, with full-year income guidance lifted above 2025 - and the shares broke out to a 20-day high on more than double-normal volume, closing at S. We are adding at S, exactly the model's entry level rather than chasing the move, with a stop at S. The stock screens modestly rich on our valuation work, so we size the add to the cash we have rather than to the signal's appetite; most of the expected return sits in the 12-week horizon, not the next month. OPS: cv90 BuyRank#1, eD -0.01 (at entry, no-chase not triggered). val_adj -3 (MoS -0.60); Quality_Pass=False blocks new entries only - D05 is held, ADD permitted. No graded BreakoutUp_20D|buy cell -> bias 0; L1 breakout discount noted, no numeric haircut. Size bound by S / 75.07 = 320 -> at the 100-lot = Sleaving S. L6 checked: gap was only +0.4%, model entry re-based post-print - not a gap chase. 12wk 79.04 exceeds DCF anchor 52.03. GAP RISK: SGX closed 08-10 National Day; the 08-11 reopen absorbs US payrolls + two US sessions in one gap. D05 trail also raised 71.03 -> 72.50; PROFIT_ARMED+RSI_DIV void under SG-7 (no real Avg_Cost) and G1 would downgrade RSI_DIV to a trail-raise anyway on a fresh BreakoutUp cv90. · news |
| HMN | CapitaLand Ascott Trust | 0.87 | SELL 80.07% | 0.87 | 0.88⚠ | 0.87 (+0.0%) | 0.87 (+0.0%) | 0.88 (+1.1%) | Ascott Trust has now closed below our stop for a third straight session and has slipped under its 200-day average, with the sell signal at its strongest reading yet and lower highs on every one of the last four days. The forward view is flat - our 12-week estimate of Sis barely above the Sclose - so there is no growth case left to wait for. We are cutting 80% of a position that has been drifting lower for weeks, at around S. OPS: cv78 SellRank#1, 3rd close below the 0.88 stop (~0.94 ATR), below EMA200 0.8729, highs 0.90->0.88->0.88->0.87. SG-2's negative-12wk leg is marginal (+1.15% over 12wk = functionally flat, band 0.83-0.92); G3 satisfied on its alternate limb (signal bearish: SELL-REDUCE AND below-EMA200). _state.json's own deferred trigger read 'close below 0.88 with a flat/negative 12wk' - met on the 12th cycle. Valuation MoS -0.81 does NOT reach the <=-3 amplify threshold -> no tier bump (SG-3: read magnitude). Scorecard FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell actionable at bias 0 (n=72, hit.500) - a coin-flip family, which is exactly why this card rests on the stop-break, not the label. 80.07% x 1300 = 1041 -> at the 100-lot; residual (S). DE-MINIMIS: gross Sis below a typical SGX minimum ticket (~S = 2.9%); the case is discipline after 12 deferrals, not dollars. Sweep the 300-sh stub with the next disposal. · news |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 24.32 | NO ACTION | 24.00 | 23.56 | 24.35 (+1.5%) | 24.42 (+1.8%) | 24.47 (+2.0%) | SGX releases full-year results after today's close, so tomorrow opens on news we cannot yet see. The buy signal is genuine and would otherwise qualify, but we are not adding leverage into an unpriced earnings print - we will revisit once the result is on the tape. OPS: STRONG BUY - ADD cv81 PullbackBuy_VWAP BuyRank#3, adj 71 - clears the 65 floor, declined on the catalyst rule alone. Entry 24.00 is 1.3% below an unpriced print; eD -0.76 (extended). val_adj a full -10 (MoS -1.94, worst in tonight's buy pool); size modulator would be 0.75x. RE-ARM: 08-07 post-print close reprinting a non-extended PullbackBuy_VWAP. Note the book is effectively fully after the D05 buy (Sleft) - this would require a sale or the B61 exit firing. Scorecard warning: PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0/4 on 1wk targets (n=4) - sample too small to bias. |
| B61 | BT Sembawang Estates | 4.55 | NO ACTION | 4.55 | 4.62⚠ | 4.56 (+0.2%) | 4.57 (+0.4%) | 4.61 (+1.3%) | Sembawang has closed below our stop for the first time since the dividend adjustment, but our 12-week estimate is still slightly above the current price, so the book's discipline holds us from selling into what may be ordinary weakness. We hold and re-arm: a second close below Swith a flat or negative forward view triggers the exit. OPS: close 4.55 vs rebased stop 4.62 (-1.52%, ~1.4 ATR); post-ex-div the name has fallen 4.64 -> 4.55 (-1.94%) - this is the FIRST genuine breach (yesterday's 4.13% was the Sex-dividend). SG-2's negative-12wk leg fails: Est_12W 4.61 = +1.3% over the close. Label is HOLD cv41 (from cv60, a 19-pt drop - just under the 20-pt tick), not a sell. Tick (c) fires but is VOID under SG-7 (no real Avg_Cost -> synthesized PROFIT_ARMED). Sdividend receivable outstanding. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 43.58 | NO ACTION | 43.58 | 42.15 | 43.64 (+0.1%) | 43.45 (-0.3%) | 44.14 (+1.3%) | UOB reports Q2 tomorrow. We hold the position through the result on an unchanged stop and take no action into the print; the signal firmed today. OPS: HOLD cv71 (up from 44), close 43.58, trail 42.15 unchanged. Catalyst-aware hold - UOB Q2 08-07 is inside 5 sessions and neither a confirmed lower high nor a stop break is present. Tick (c) fires (Est_12W 44.14 < 1.02 x 43.58 = 44.45) but is VOID under SG-7 - no real Avg_Cost. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
101 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.