Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
25th cycle: the book's LONGEST-declined buy finally clears — S58 SATS prints STRONG BUY cv90 at BuyRank #1 and survives the same EPV -10 that killed it five times; O39's profit-take FIRES for real as three consecutive lower highs release the catalyst-aware hold; and B61's 4.1% "stop breach" turns out to be its Sex-dividend, which went ex TODAY
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S58 | SATS Ltd | 4.83 | BUY — QUEUED @4.85 | 4.85 | 4.50 | 4.81 (-0.8%) | 4.83 (-0.4%) | 5.14 (+6.0%) | SATS is the strongest trend on the Singapore board and it just made a new high on nearly double its normal volume - the shares closed at S, the top of the day's range, +2.8%, and sit 26% above their 200-day average. The business backs the tape: SATS just closed a record FY2026 with revenue up 9% to S3bn and profit up 17%, and it led Singapore's blue chips with a 14.7% total return. On our intrinsic work the shares screen around fair value rather than cheap, so we are buying momentum and quality rather than a bargain, and we size accordingly. We buy only if the advance continues - the order sits above the market and fills on strength, not on a dip. OPERATIONAL: conviction 90 (BuyRank #1, Trend 98) - 10 EPV val_adj + 0 bias = adj 80, the highest this book has produced. Quality_Pass True so the gate permits a new entry. Size 0.75x modulator (MoS -2.45), model Scapped by the Sdry -> @ 4.85 = S (11.8% of); risk to the 4.50 stop = SL1 does not bite (trend-continuation family, not a breakout/FailedBreakdown chase); L6 does not bite (no S58 event through 18-Aug). eD +0.17 and RSI 67.3 clear the no-chase bar on both legs. Est_1W/-0.8% and Est_4W/-0.4% are flat-to-negative vs the 4.85 entry and stated openly; the 12wk at +6.0% is the horizon underwriting this. Declined 4x prior (07-27, 07-29, 08-03, 08-04) at cv 60-73 on the identical val_adj -10. Scorecard cell MomentumContinuation_Up|buy is n=4 (hit_4w 1.00) - report-only, not applied. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 28.63 | SELL 30% | 28.63 | 27.78 | 28.55 (-0.3%) | 28.28 (-1.2%) | 28.74 (+0.4%) | We are banking part of a 10% gain in OCBC while the shares are quietly rolling over. The stock has made a lower high three sessions running and closed lower each time, and our own one-week and four-week projections now sit below today's price - the easy part of this move is behind it. OCBC reports second-quarter results on 7 August, so we are deliberately selling only 30% and letting the remaining 70% ride the print with a raised stop; the bank has beaten expectations in each of the last two quarters and we do not want to be out of it entirely. This is profit-taking on a winner, not a loss of faith. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed on a REAL Avg_Cost 25.93 (Gain_ATR 5.86, T12_Progress 99.62, +10.4%) - the only genuinely armed name on this book per SG-7. Fire tick (c) dead 12wk: Target_12Week 28.74 < 1.02 x 28.63 = 29.20. Ticks (a)/(b)/(d) do not fire. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30% = = SNo valuation tier-bump (MoS -0.61, needs <= -3). The catalyst-aware hold (OCBC Q2 on 08-07, 2 sessions out) is RELEASED by its own confirmed-lower-high exception: highs 29.20 -> 29.06 -> 28.72. Deferral has run 3 cycles; L3/SG-1 say execute rather than re-recommend. Residual stop RAISED 27.72 -> 27.78 (model live stop); chandelier 2.0xATR computes 27.71 which is lower, and trails never ratchet down. Action price 28.63 is the settled close, inside the +-0.25 ATR provenance band of the live Entry_Price 28.70. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
98 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.