Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
34th cycle: **the reject pays off spectacularly** — S58, declined last night by exactly four points, collapses **−13.63% in one session** on 8× volume and gaps straight through the stop the trade would have carried, saving ~Sor **13.7% of the book's entire **; **J69U's 13-times-refused sell reverses outright to HOLD cv67**, vindicating SG-2 on S; and a mild REIT bid flips **every remaining L2 12-week limb positive**, so a second consecutive **ZERO-card EOD** is for the first time a genuinely quiet book rather than a blocked one — though four names stay blocked for a **25th static cycle**
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S58 | SATS | 4.12 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Last night's four-point reject is vindicated in the hardest possible way: SATS fell 13.63% today (4.77 -> 4.12) on 33.9m shares against a 4.1m prior session, opening at 4.77's stop level and trading straight to 4.06 with no chance to exit at the 4.71 stop. The 08-19 EOD declined this BUY cv71 at adj 61 on a maximum -10 valuation haircut, L1's weak-chase discount on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, and the G07 archetype precedent - all three were right. Sizing the declined trade against the Sdry, the reject avoided roughly Sof loss, about 13.7% of the book's entire cash. Signal now NO TRADE cv0, RSI 27.25. No specific catalyst surfaced on the permitted domains; per L4 the tape is authoritative. RE-ARM: unchanged at a BUY-family reprint cv >= 75, or any PullbackBuy_VWAP cv >= 65. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 40.22 | HOLD | — | 41.27⚠ | n/a | n/a | 40.32 | Blocked for a 3rd cycle under SG-8 - not re-published and not re-escalated. The (30%) trim first published 08-17 remains neither executed nor recorded. Notably the L2 exit case WEAKENED tonight: the stop break persists (40.22 vs 41.27 = -2.54%, 7th consecutive session below) but Est_12W flipped POSITIVE to 40.32 (+0.25%) from -0.22%, so limb 2 no longer fires. Cost of the stall since the 08-17 reference: 41.13 -> 40.22 = -2.21%, ~Sforgone on the tranche. Reconcile with 'trade sell sg U11 3700' or 'trade skip sg U11'. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.78 | HOLD | — | 30.09 | n/a | n/a | 31.12 | Blocked for a 7th cycle under SG-8. The ADR-0012 profit-take still fires cleanly on 2 ticks on the book's ONE genuinely-armed real-cost position (Avg_Cost 25.9325, +18.69%, Gain_ATR 7.25, T12_Progress 98.91): tick (c) dead 12wk, Target_12Week 31.12 < 1.02 x 30.78 = 31.396; and tick (d) THREE consecutive NO TRADE prints. Mechanically profit_take_2 = 50% =; MoS -0.77 is above the -3 amplify threshold so no tier bump. Stall cost since 08-13: 31.50 -> 30.78 = -2.29%. Reconcile with 'trade sell sg O39 500' or 'trade skip sg O39'. |
| B61 | BT SEMBAWANG EST | 4.41 | HOLD | — | 4.62⚠ | n/a | n/a | 4.50 | Blocked for a 6th cycle under SG-8. B61 printed its first-ever STRONG SELL - REDUCE tonight at Sell_Rank #2, but the card fails on its own merits regardless of the block: conviction is 27, thirty-eight points under the 65 floor and COLLAPSING, -23 in one session), and SG-2's second limb fails with Est_12W 4.50 at +2.04% above the close. The stop break is real and the deepest in the book (4.41 vs 4.62 = -4.55%, 10th consecutive session) on Sbut a low-conviction sell label on an UNDERVALUED name with a positive forward view is exactly the fade SG-2 exists to refuse. BreakdownDown_20D|sell is n=2, report-only. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | HOLD | — | 0.88⚠ | n/a | n/a | 0.89 | Blocked for a 10th cycle under SG-8. 12th consecutive session below the 0.88 stop (0.855, -2.84%) but Est_12W 0.89 is +4.09% positive, so L2 limb 2 fails. Position is S - immaterial either way. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.19 | HOLD | — | 2.18 | n/a | n/a | 2.23 | The clearest SG-2 vindication yet. J69U printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE at cv81 on 08-18 and cv38 on 08-19 and the book refused it 13 consecutive times on the stop-break + negative-12wk test; tonight the label REVERSED outright to HOLD cv67 on ReversalUp_Oversold with the price +0.92% at 2.19, back above the 2.18 stop. Every one of those refusals was correct and Sof stock was not sold into the fade. Valuation is NA (F_Score 1) so no val_adj; external read flags a premium 24.9x P/E vs the 19.2x Singapore retail-REIT average against expanding margins - neutral, no action. Hold on the 2.18 stop. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.43 | HOLD | — | 2.42 | n/a | n/a | 2.45 | Refused for a 14th consecutive session. Conviction RECOVERED and it holds Sell_Rank #1 on a 4th straight STRONG SELL - REDUCE, so it now clears the 65 floor on arithmetic (71 + 0 bias, FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell is actionable at n=73 hit.507) - but SG-2 fails on BOTH limbs: the close 2.43 sits 0.41% ABOVE the 2.42 stop (no break at all) and Est_12W 2.45 is +0.82% positive. MoS -7.69 would amplify a tier if a sell were ever originated, but valuation never originates (CLAUDE.md 9). Position is S - immaterial. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.94 | HOLD | — | 0.96⚠ | n/a | n/a | 0.96 | 3rd consecutive decisive break (0.94 vs 0.96 = -2.08%) on Sbut Est_12W 0.96 remains +2.13% positive so L2 limb 2 still fails. RSI 26.88 - the book's most oversold name alongside B61. Remains the next name to reach the dispose side if the forward view rolls over. Hold on 0.96. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | HOLD | — | 1.89 | n/a | n/a | 1.89 | One limb short in the mirror direction: Est_12W 1.89 is -1.05% NEGATIVE, but the close 1.91 sits 1.06% ABOVE the 1.89 stop so there is no break. Sthe book's 3rd-largest position. MoS -17.43 is the book's most extreme, but per SG-3 the REIT band is miscalibrated and valuation cannot originate. Model prints a short-side 1.96 above the close - rejected again, stop stays 1.89. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.85 | HOLD | — | 10.55 | n/a | n/a | 10.62 | One limb short for a 2nd session: Est_12W 10.62 is -2.12% negative (deepening from -2.01%) but the close 10.85 is 2.84% above the 10.55 stop. Conviction remains collapsed at 0 after the post-earnings drift. PENDING: the stop rebases 10.55 -> 10.51 on the 4c ex-dividend 2026-08-25 - not applied tonight, never lower a stop before the ex-date. |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.27 | HOLD | — | 1.27⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1.27 | Sitting exactly ON the 1.27 stop for a 3rd session (0.00%, not a decisive break) with Est_12W flat at 1.27 (+0.00%) - neither L2 limb is decisive. Conviction rose. Simmaterial. Model prints a short-side 1.31 above the close - rejected, stop stays 1.27. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.84 | HOLD | 74.71 | 74.47 | 75.58 (+1.2%) | 75.68 (+1.3%) | 78.80 (+5.5%) | The book's largest position at S (28.3%) and the only held name printing an L1-preferred PullbackBuy_VWAP family signal, but cv53 is well under the floor and it is not an actionable buy label. Best forward view among the banks at Est_12W 78.80 (+3.90%). Took the FOMC-minutes reaction benignly (-0.21%). Trail cushion 1.84% - the tightest of the large holdings; chandelier computes 73.44, below the recorded 74.47, so the stop is NOT moved. |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 24.91 | HOLD | — | 24.44 | n/a | n/a | 24.97 | Biggest conviction move in the book tonight - collapsed (-53) on a -0.99% session, the largest held-name decline. Est_12W 24.97 is only +0.24%, effectively flat. No sell case: the close 24.91 is 1.92% above the 24.44 stop and there is no sell label. Chandelier 24.00 is below the recorded stop - not moved. The 08-14 queue at 24.27 that was withdrawn never filled and is not revived. |
| U13 | UOI LTD | 8.53 | HOLD | — | 8.03 | n/a | n/a | 8.59 | Flat at 8.53 and sitting 6.23% above its 8.03 stop, the widest cushion in the book - a candidate for a trail-raise on paper, but DELIBERATELY NOT RAISED. Two reasons: the name prints 'Liquidity gate failed' and its ATR of 0.078 (0.9% of price) badly understates real risk on a thin counter, and the price has drifted DOWN 8.81 -> 8.53 over six sessions rather than trending up, so a chandelier anchored to the recent high (8.576) would already sit above the live close. Tightening into a downward drift on an illiquid name invites a spread-driven stop-out. Stop held at 8.03. SG-7 note: its PROFIT_ARMED print is spurious - no Avg_Cost. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.67 | HOLD | — | 2.62 | n/a | n/a | 2.78 | Best held-name session tonight at +1.52% and the book's best forward view at Est_12W 2.78 (+4.12%). The cushion above the 2.62 stop widened 0.38% -> 1.91% on the move. No signal either way at cv0. Hold. |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 27.50 | HOLD | — | 26.38 | n/a | n/a | 27.84 | The book's only UNDERVALUED + Quality_Pass name (F_Score 6, EPV 73.39 vs a 27.50 close) and its conviction has now climbed four straight sessions ->, closing +1.18% tonight. With the full +10 valuation credit it reaches adj 66, ABOVE the 65 floor - but the label is AVOID on a bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D family, so there is no bullish actionable row to buy and arithmetic alone cannot manufacture one. This is a label reject, not a numbers reject, and it is the closest the acquire side has been to a candidate in three sessions. RE-ARM: any BUY-family print at cv >= 55 makes this an immediate ADD candidate on the held. Model prints a short-side 28.56 above the close - rejected; stop held at 26.38 (a 2xATR raise to 26.44 is +0.24%, immaterial). |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 21.62 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Round-tripped a second time - BUY cv71 (08-17) -> NO TRADE cv0 -> WATCH cv52 -> NO TRADE cv0 tonight on a -2.61% session, now printing 'Liquidity gate failed'. Quality gate FAILS (Quality_Pass False, F_Score 3/9). This is the archetype that justified the S58 reject and it has now demonstrated the same fade twice. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
118 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.