Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
35th cycle: **a third consecutive zero-card EOD, but the first one that is genuinely *quiet on both sides*** — the buy pool is structurally empty for a 3rd session, and the dispose side produces **two** simultaneous `STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71` prints (A17U Sell_Rank #1, **C07 Sell_Rank #2 — brand new**) that SG-2 refuses on both limbs; **C07's sell label is contradicted outright by a S divestment announcement** on the book's only UNDERVALUED + Quality_Pass name; and the night's real work is **queue hygiene** — three zombie de-risk cards (U11, B61, HMN), 2–9 sessions past expiry at cv < 65 with their 12-week limbs flipped positive, are formally **WITHDRAWN** under ADR-0012, cutting the blocked-name count
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.98 | SELL 30% | 30.98 | 30.09 | 30.81 (-0.5%) | 30.73 (-0.8%) | 31.37 (+1.3%) | We are banking a third of our OCBC position, now up 19.5% on cost. The bank has just delivered a record first half - profit up 13% to S19bn, income up 11%, the interim dividend lifted 15% to 47 cents - and that is precisely the problem: the market has already paid for all of it. Our own twelve-week projection now sits at +1.3%, effectively flat, and our valuation work reads the shares as expensive against the bank's own earning power. Taking a third off the table locks in the gain while leaving 70% invested in a well-run bank. This is a reference-price refresh of an order first raised on 13 August. Ops: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED (Gain_ATR 7.64, T12_Progress 98.76%, real Avg_Cost 25.9325 per SG-7) + 1 tick fired - (c) dead 12wk: Target_12Week 31.37 < 1.02*Close 31.60. Ticks (a)/(b)/(d) did NOT fire (no 2nd warning code; cv ROSE; NO TRADE streak broke). profit_take_1 = 30%; MoS -0.74 above the -3 threshold so NO tier bump. DCF 32.21 > target 31.37 so no exceeds-DCF annotation. NOT re-published as a new card - SG-8 cycle 8, blocked on the unreconciled holdings file; entry repriced 31.50 -> 30.98 only. · news |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 27.58 | HOLD | — | 26.38 | 27.61 | 27.92 | 27.92 | Our model flagged Jardine Cycle & Carriage as a sell today, and we are overruling it. The company has just agreed to sell its Singapore and Malaysian car dealerships to Chandra Asri for S, explicitly to crystallise value and pay down debt while refocusing on Indonesia and Vietnam - and it declared a 28-cent dividend alongside. This is the one holding our valuation work rates as genuinely cheap and financially sound, the shares rose today, and they trade comfortably above our risk line. A sell signal on those facts is the model reading a chart, not a business. Holding all. Ops: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71 Sell_Rank #2 REFUSED on 4 grounds - SG-2 fails both limbs (close +4.55% above the 26.38 stop; Est_12W +1.23%), scorecard bias 0 (n=73, hit.507), UNDERVALUED+Quality_Pass argues the trim DOWN a tier per CLAUDE.md 9, news classified overrides. The 08-20 BUY re-arm at cv>=55 is VOID - the name printed the opposite pole. NEW RE-ARM: BUY-family print at cv>=55, or divestment completion while still UNDERVALUED + Quality_Pass. SCHEDULED: stop rebases 26.38 -> 26.10 on the 28c ex-div 2026-09-01 - a 1.02% mechanical drop, must not be read as a break. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.46 | HOLD | — | 2.42 | 2.46 | 2.48 | 2.47 | Ascendas REIT has flagged as a sell for the fourth session running and we are declining it for the fifteenth time. The signal keeps firing but the evidence does not follow: the units rose 1.2% today, trade above our risk line, and our twelve-week view is mildly positive. Singapore sell signals in this book have a documented habit of reversing, and this position is worth under Sin any case. Ops: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71 Sell_Rank #1; adj 71 clears the floor on arithmetic (cell actionable n=73 but hit_1w.507, bias 0); SG-2 fails BOTH limbs - close 2.46 is +1.65% ABOVE the 2.42 stop, Est_12W +0.41%. MoS deepened -7.69 -> -7.76 and would amplify one tier IF a sell were ever originated, but valuation never originates (CLAUDE.md 9). Position = Simmaterial. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.00 | HOLD | — | 74.47 | 75.80 | 75.82 | 79.19 | DBS remains the book's largest and steadiest holding at roughly 28% of the portfolio, and carries the strongest twelve-week outlook of any name we own at +4.2%. Nothing to do but hold. Ops: HOLD cv53 stable 3 settles; trail held at 74.47 (2xATR computes 73.74, below - never lower). val_adj -3 not applied to a hold. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.92 | HOLD | — | 1.89 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.90 | Mapletree Industrial is the one holding where our valuation work sees a really wide gap to fair value, and the twelve-week outlook is mildly negative - but the units are still above our risk line, so there is no sale to make yet. Watching. Ops: ONE LIMB SHORT of L2 - Est_12W -1.04% negative but close +1.59% above the 1.89 stop, no break. MoS -17.52, deepest discount-to-anchor in the book. Re-arm: a decisive close below 1.89. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.94 | HOLD | — | 0.96⚠ | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.96 | Frasers Logistics has slipped just under our risk line for a fourth session, but our twelve-week view is still positive and the units firmed today, so we hold. This is on the watchlist rather than the sell list. Ops: ONE LIMB SHORT of L2 - 4th consecutive break (-1.56%) but Est_12W +1.59% positive. RSI 32.4, oversold. Position SRe-arm: Est_12W turning negative while below 0.96. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.68 | HOLD | — | 10.55 | 10.77 | 10.70 | 10.49 | ST Engineering fell 1.6% today and our twelve-week view is mildly negative, but it trades above our risk line so there is nothing to act on. A 4-cent dividend goes ex on 25 August. Ops: ONE LIMB SHORT of L2 - Est_12W -1.78% but close +1.23% above the 10.55 stop. PENDING: stop rebases 10.55 -> 10.51 on the 4c ex-div 2026-08-25; never lower before the ex-date. |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 24.89 | HOLD | — | 24.44 | 24.87 | 24.74 | 25.09 | SGX was flat today with a mildly positive forward view and sits above our risk line. Hold. Ops: NO TRADE cv0, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Est_12W +0.80%. Trail held 24.44 (2xATR computes 24.09, below). |
| U13 | UOI LTD | 8.53 | HOLD | — | 8.03 | 8.54 | 8.57 | 8.51 | UOI did not trade at all today. It sits well clear of our risk line, so we hold and deliberately leave that line where it is - tightening a stop on a share this illiquid invites being sold out on a wide spread rather than a real move. Ops: Volume 0, close unchanged 8.53, +6.23% above the 8.03 stop - widest cushion in the book. Raise DECLINED for a 3rd cycle: 'Liquidity gate failed', ATR 0.0625 = 0.73% of price understates real risk. Stop HELD at 8.03. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.19 | HOLD | — | 2.18 | 2.19 | 2.20 | 2.22 | Frasers Centrepoint flashed a loud sell signal earlier this week which we declined; it has since faded to a mild avoid and the units are flat and above our risk line, with a positive forward view. Declining it was right. Holding SOps: SG-2 vindicated a 2nd session - STRONG SELL cv81 (08-18) -> cv38 -> HOLD 67 -> AVOID 60. Valuation NA (no comparable), val_adj 0. Hold on 2.18. |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | HOLD | — | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.28 | Mapletree Pan Asia rose today and has moved back above our risk line after sitting exactly on it for several sessions. Hold. Ops: cleared the 1.27 stop (+0.79%) after 3 sessions at/below. Est_12W flat 0.0%. 'Liquidity gate failed' - no ATR-derived raise. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.67 | HOLD | — | 2.62 | 2.67 | 2.68 | 2.78 | CapitaLand Investment carries the second-strongest twelve-week outlook in the book at +4.1% and trades above our risk line. Hold. Ops: NO TRADE cv0 x4 but Est_12W +4.12%, 2nd best held. Trail held 2.62 (2xATR computes 2.554). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
118 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.