Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
36th cycle: **a fourth consecutive zero-card EOD, and the night the book's headline risk statistic turns out to be half-manufactured** — B61 finally prints the cleanest sell the cycle has produced (`SELL - REDUCE cv70`, **Sell_Rank #1**, 13th straight stop breach, close under EMA200, RSI 22.5) and SG-2 still refuses it on the second limb; the acquire side declines **Buy_Rank #1 S68 by exactly four points for the third time in six sessions**; and a book-wide gap sweep establishes that B61's −5.84% breach is **~40% ex-dividend arithmetic** the 08-05 rebase under-corrected, while HMN's 14-session breach is **probably entirely** an unrebased distribution
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 40.73 | HOLD | — | 41.27⚠ | 40.62 | 40.70 | 40.75 | United Overseas Bank holds through a sixth consecutive session below its recorded stop, but the break is shallow at -1.31% and the twelve-week view is fractionally positive, so the book's stop-break-plus-negative-forward exit basis is not met. L2 second limb fails (Est_12W +0.05%, inside dividend noise). Queue withdrawn 08-21 stays withdrawn; no re-arm condition triggered. Trail held at 41.27 — the 2 ATR chandelier computes to 39.54, well below. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.56 | HOLD | — | 74.47 | 75.31 | 75.25 | 78.54 | DBS remains the book's strongest core holding — a bullish pullback setup trading above its trailing stop with the widest positive twelve-week band of any bank in the book. Signal HOLD cv53, no action warranted. Trail held at 74.47; 2 ATR chandelier computes 73.29, below the recorded stop. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.93 | HOLD | — | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.90 | Mapletree Industrial carries the book's most negative twelve-week view but is trading above its stop, so the exit basis is only half met. L2 disjoint-set case: negative forward view, no stop break. Note MoS -17.5 is below SG-3's -3 amplify threshold, but valuation never originates a sell and no signal-based reason exists tonight. Trail held 1.89. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.95 | HOLD | — | 0.96⚠ | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.96 | Frasers Logistics sits 1.04% below its stop for a fifth session on a NO TRADE print, but its twelve-week estimate remains positive at +1.05%, failing L2's second limb. The book's largest REIT position by share count; no signal-based sell reason. Trail held 0.96. |
| B61 | BT SEMBAWANG EST | 4.35 | HOLD | — | 4.62⚠ | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.44 | Bukit Sembawang printed the cleanest sell case of the cycle — a genuine SELL-REDUCE at conviction 70, the board's number one sell rank, a thirteenth consecutive close below its stop, price under the 200-day average and a deeply oversold RSI of 22.5. The sell is nonetheless refused because the model's own twelve-week estimate is 2.07% ABOVE the current price and the valuation layer reads the name UNDERVALUED, which under the book's rules argues for the smallest possible trim rather than a larger one. SG-2 second limb fails for a 13th time. Gap sweep this run shows the -5.84% breach overstates the damage: the 08-05 rebase moved the stop 4.78 to 4.62, under-correcting the 22c ex-dividend by 6c, so the correctly-adjusted breach is -4.6%. Under-correction runs conservative (too-tight stop) so 4.62 STANDS — never lower a stop. Decline is genuine regardless: -6.4% over four weeks ex-dividend. Est_12W decaying monotonically 4.48>4.47>4.46>4.44 — closest the book has come to a clean sell. 08-21 re-arm carried forward unchanged: RE-ARM on the first negative Est_12W settle below 4.62. |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 25.16 | HOLD | — | 24.44 | 25.11 | 25.07 | 25.38 | Singapore Exchange was the board's only bullish actionable row and its top-ranked buy, on the pullback setup the book most trusts and backed by a record half-year result. The add is declined because the shares have already run 1.3 ATR past the model's entry level and the valuation layer marks the price well above intrinsic worth, leaving the case four points short of the book's action threshold. Adjusted conviction 70 - 9 (val_adj, MoS -1.81) + 0 (bias) = 61 vs the 65 floor. Three independent secondary blocks: extended eD -1.31 (SG-4 no-chase on cores); own Est_1W 25.11 and Est_4W 25.07 both BELOW the 25.16 close — signal contradicts its own forecast; SG-6 immediate-tranche carve-out needs cv>=95, this is 70. PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0/4 on 1wk targets (n=4, report-only, no bias applied) — flagged for review. Third Buy_Rank #1 declined within ~4 points in six sessions. RE-ARM: a non-extended BUY-ADD reprint at or below the 24.66 model entry, or any print at cv>=79 (which would clear the floor after the -9 haircut). Trail held 24.44. |
| U13 | UOI LTD | 8.40 | HOLD | — | 8.03 | 8.42 | 8.44 | 8.41 | UOI holds unchanged on a NO TRADE print with the liquidity gate failed — just traded. Stop raise declined for a fourth time: the 2 ATR chandelier computes 8.26 versus the recorded 8.03, but setting a stop 1.7% away off a 3,000-share print invites a phantom trigger on a name that has repeatedly round-tripped 8.75 to 8.45 and back on no volume. Held at 8.03. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.20 | HOLD | — | 2.18 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.22 | Frasers Centrepoint holds above its stop on an AVOID label that is not part of the sell pool, with a positive twelve-week view. The sell that this name printed thirteen times through mid-August has now stayed reversed for a third session. Valuation layer blind on this name (NA). Trail held 2.18. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.64 | HOLD | — | 10.51 | 10.71 | 10.67 | 10.45 | ST Engineering goes ex-dividend tomorrow, so its trailing stop is mechanically rebased down by the 4 cent distribution to keep the risk line consistent with the adjusted price. No change to the position. Stop 10.55 > 10.51 effective 08-25 (quarterly interim ~0.37% of close, pay 04 Sep). L2 disjoint-set case: Est_12W -1.79% negative but no stop break (10.64 vs 10.55). |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.92 | HOLD | — | 30.09 | 30.76 | 30.75 | 31.68 | OCBC sits on a 19.2% open gain and remains the one holding with a genuine, so its profit-take machinery is live. No trim tonight: the deteriorating-forward-view trigger that fired on 08-21 has reversed, and none of the other deterioration tests are close. ADR-0012 ticks all clear — (a) no non-PROFIT_ARMED code; (b) conviction 60>54 = -6, not >=20; (c) dead-12wk CLEARED, Est_12W 31.68 vs 1.02*Close 31.54; (d) no NO TRADE streak. Armed-but-not-fired mandates a trail-raise, but the 2.0 ATR chandelier computes 29.77, BELOW the recorded 30.09 — no raise, stop holds 6th cycle. Separately the 08-21 SELL card remains OUTSTANDING and blocked on the unreconciled holdings file; per SG-8 it is not re-published. |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 27.66 | HOLD | — | 26.56 | 27.64 | 27.89 | 27.78 | Jardine Cycle & Carriage is the book's only holding that is both undervalued on intrinsic worth and passing the quality screen, and its stop is raised for the first time in six cycles as the price firms. AVOID label is not in the sell pool. 2.0 ATR chandelier = 27.66 - 2*0.5503 = 26.56, first stop in six cycles to compute above its recorded level. Scheduled 09-01 ex-div rebase consequently becomes 26.56 > 26.28 (28c interim, record 02 Sep, pay 05 Oct). |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.29 | HOLD | — | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | Mapletree PanAsia holds above its stop with a flat twelve-week view and an AVOID label that does not qualify for the sell pool. No action. Trail held 1.27. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.66 | HOLD | — | 2.62 | 2.66 | 2.68 | 2.75 | CapitaLand Investment carries the best twelve-week upside in the book at roughly 3.4% and trades above its stop, so it is held without action despite a NO TRADE label. NoTrade_Reason: consensus conflict + low conviction. Trail held 2.62. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.87 | HOLD | — | 0.88⚠ | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.89 | CapitaLand Ascott holds on a 14th nominal session below its stop, but the twelve-week view is positive and the position is worth barely Sso no exit is warranted. L2 second limb fails (Est_12W +2.30%). IMPORTANT hygiene flag from this run's gap sweep: HMN gapped -2.5c (-2.2 ATR) on 08-04 with its 0.88 stop set on 08-03 and never rebased — if that gap is the CLAS distribution as the magnitude suggests, the correct stop is ~0.855 and the entire 14-session breach record is mechanical. Not acted on: position is immaterial (S) and the verdict does not turn on it. Flagged in systemic finding #2 for an auto-rebase fix. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.45 | HOLD | — | 2.42 | 2.46 | 2.47 | 2.46 | CapitaLand Ascendas holds above its stop after last week's sell signal decayed to AVOID, with a flat twelve-week view. The STRONG SELL cv71 that led the board on 08-21 has now faded two sessions running — the exact SG-2 fade pattern. Position is STrail held 2.42. |
| BN4 | Keppel | 11.35 | WATCH | 11.35 | 11.25 | 11.32 (-0.3%) | 11.32 (-0.3%) | 11.33 (-0.2%) | Keppel briefly signalled a buy an hour into the session and faded back to a watch-only reading by the close, so no entry is taken. Intraday BUY cv66 at 10:00 decayed to WATCH cv56 at the settle — exactly the whipsaw L4 exists to catch; the settled close is authoritative. Adjusted conviction 56 - 10 (val_adj, MoS -2.90) + 0 = 41, far below the 65 floor. Two further blocks: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is the family L1 explicitly discounts (weak hit rate, high stop-first), and Quality_Pass is False, which hard-blocks a NEW entry under the fusion quality gate regardless of conviction. RE-ARM: a settled-close BUY print from a non-FailedBreakdown family with Quality_Pass restored. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
119 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.