Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
37th cycle: **the buy side finally clears the bar** — after four consecutive zero-card EODs and three Buy_Rank #1 names declined by roughly four points each, **S68 ramps to `STRONG BUY - ADD cv84`** on the L1-favoured `PullbackBuy_VWAP` family and survives the fusion arithmetic at **adj 75**, taking the book's first acquire card in eleven sessions (queued, -capped at); **J69U prints its loudest sell of the week (`STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71`, Sell_Rank #1, Portion 80%) and SG-2 refuses it a 14th time on both limbs**; and **O39 stays armed-but-not-fired by four Singapore cents** — its dead-12wk tick misses by S
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 25.40 | ADD — QUEUED @24.72 | 24.72 | 23.99 | 25.30 (+2.3%) | 25.21 (+2.0%) | 25.52 (+3.2%) | Singapore Exchange is the strongest setup on the board and the first to clear the fusion bar in eleven sessions: conviction ramps across four snapshots on a VWAP pullback - the most reliable buy pattern in the playbook - while the business behind it just delivered its best half-year ever, with net revenue up 7.6%, the equities-cash division up 16.2%, and an IPO pipeline that went from five listings raising S to fifteen raising S$3bn. The catch is price: the stock closed 1.86 ATR above the model's entry, so this is a limit order 2.7% below the close, not a chase. Quality screens pass (F-Score 7, top-ranked on the book), but the shares are dear against an intrinsic anchor, which halves the position size. Operational: L1-favoured family; SG-4 forbids chasing an extended exchange/bank core, SG-6 tranche carve-out needs cv>=95 so no immediate fill; 08-14 queue @24.27 was withdrawn 08-17, this is a fresh limit at the live Entry_Price (provenance clean). Size 114.38% x 3000 = 3431 -> x0.75 mod = 2573 -> position cap 1771 -> cap @ S = STranche stop 23.99; held-position trail STAYS 24.44 (never lower a trail). Scorecard warning: PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0/4 on 1wk targets, report-only at n=4. 12wk 25.52 far exceeds DCF anchor 17.97 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.20 | HOLD | 2.20 | 2.18 | 2.21 (+0.5%) | 2.21 (+0.5%) | 2.22 (+0.9%) | Frasers Centrepoint Trust flashed the loudest sell signal on the book tonight, but the evidence behind it does not hold up: the price is still above its stop, the twelve-week outlook is positive, and the trust's own fundamentals are improving - net margin up to 51.2% from 49.3%, with earnings forecast to grow 8.4% a year against a Singapore market average of 6.6%. The valuation is a premium to peers, but expensive-and-improving is not a reason to sell a Sposition. Holding all. Operational: SG-2 refusal #14 - both legs fail (close 2.20 > trail 2.18 and > live stop 2.15; Est_12W 2.22 vs 2.20 close = +0.9%). FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell actionable at n=73, hit_1w.507 / hit_4w.375 - worse than chance at 4wk. PROFIT_ARMED is spurious per SG-7 (no Avg_Cost). Re-opens only on a settled close below 2.18. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.49 | HOLD | 31.58 | 30.42 | 31.36 (-0.7%) | 31.29 (-0.9%) | 32.16 (+1.8%) | OCBC is the book's biggest winner at +21% and close enough to its twelve-week objective that a profit-take is on the table - but none of the four deterioration triggers fired tonight, and the bank just posted record first-half profit of S19bn, up 13%, with a 15% dividend increase and non-performing loans flat at 0.9%. When a winner is strong and undamaged, the discipline is to tighten the stop rather than sell into strength, so the trailing stop rises from Sto Sand the full position stays. Operational: ADR-0012 armed-but-not-fired -> MANDATORY trail-raise, not a trim. Ticks tested: (a) no other Exit_Warning code; (b) conv, drop of 1; (c) dead-12wk MISSES BY S (T12 32.16 vs 1.02x close 32.1198) - watch tomorrow, any drift fires profit_take_1 30%; (d) HOLD not NO TRADE. Only real-Avg_Cost name on the book (SG-7). NOTE: separate 08-21 SELL card still outstanding under ADR-0019 - not re-published per SG-8; clear with 'trade sell sg O39 300' or 'trade skip sg O39'. · news |
| BN4 | Keppel | 11.44 | WATCH | 11.44 | 11.33 | 11.40 (-0.3%) | 11.42 (-0.2%) | 11.38 (-0.5%) | Keppel printed a clean, non-extended buy signal - the only candidate tonight trading right at the model's entry rather than above it - but it fails on three counts and is declined for a second straight session. It screens poorly on financial quality, its own twelve-week estimate sits below today's close, and the valuation haircut leaves it two points short of the conviction floor. The reported numbers back that up: Keppel held its dividend flat while operating cash flow more than halved, and carries S3bn of borrowings against S2bn of cash. Operational: adj = 73 - 10 (MoS -2.90 saturates val_adj) + 0 = 63 vs 65 floor. Quality_Pass False + = hard quality-gate block on a NEW ENTRY (no ADD exemption). Est_12W 11.38 < close 11.44. L1 discounts FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; cell ungraded on this book. Ex-div SGD 0.15 passed 08-11. Re-arms only on quality-gate pass or a positive 12wk limb. · news |
| B61 | BT SEMBAWANG EST | 4.35 | HOLD | 4.35 | 4.62⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sembawang Estate's sell signal faded to a hold this session and its twelve-week outlook turned positive, so the position stays intact. The stop looks breached on paper, but roughly 40% of that gap is dividend arithmetic rather than a real decline. Operational: 14th consecutive breach (-5.84%), ~40% established as ex-div under-correction on 08-24. L2 leg 2 fails: Est_12W 4.45 vs 4.35 close = +2.3%. RSI 22.5 deeply oversold. Sell label faded cv70 -> cv57. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | HOLD | 0.86 | 0.88⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | CapitaLand Ascott's apparent stop breach is almost certainly an unadjusted distribution rather than a real decline, and its twelve-week outlook is positive. A Sposition does not justify a trade either way. Operational: 15th breach (-2.27%), established 08-24 as probably entirely an unrebased distribution. L2 leg 2 fails: Est_12W 0.89 vs 0.86 = +3.5%. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.95 | HOLD | 0.95 | 0.96⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Frasers Logistics is sitting a cent under its stop with no trade signal and a positive twelve-week view - not enough to act on a Sposition. Operational: 6th breach (-1.04%). NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. L2 leg 2 fails: Est_12W 0.96 vs 0.95 = +1.1%. MoS -5.89 would amplify a sell, but per CLAUDE.md sec.9 valuation never originates one. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 41.11 | HOLD | 41.11 | 41.27⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | UOB is fractionally below its stop with no signal either way and a flat-to-positive twelve-week view. The breach is too shallow to act on for the book's second-largest position. Operational: 7th breach, -0.39% - within noise. L2 leg 2 fails: Est_12W 41.23 vs 41.11 = +0.3%. SG-4 governs: bank core, hold through. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.40 | HOLD | 76.40 | 74.47 | n/a | n/a | n/a | DBS strengthened this session and carries the best twelve-week outlook among the banks, comfortably above its trailing stop. Holding the full position. Operational: conv. Est_12W 78.81 vs 76.40 close = +3.2%. RSI 64.9, extended - SG-4 says hold through, do not chase and do not trim on RSI alone (G3). Trail unchanged 74.47. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.93 | HOLD | 1.93 | 1.89 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Mapletree Industrial holds above its stop with a mildly negative twelve-week estimate that is well inside estimation noise for a REIT of this yield. No stop break means no exit case. Operational: Est_12W 1.91 vs 1.93 close = -1.0%, but L2 leg 1 (stop break) fails - close 1.93 > stop 1.89. MoS -17.52 is the book's deepest but per SG-3/CLAUDE.md sec.9 cannot originate a sell. |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | HOLD | 1.28 | 1.27 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Mapletree PanAsia is a cent above its stop with a flat twelve-week view - no actionable case on either side. Operational: Est_12W 1.28 = close 1.28, dead flat. No stop break. Conv faded. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.67 | HOLD | 2.67 | 2.62 | n/a | n/a | n/a | CapitaLand Investment shows no trade signal but retains the book's strongest twelve-week upside and sits above its stop. Holding. Operational: 4th consecutive NoTrade ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'). Est_12W 2.76 vs 2.67 = +3.4%. PROFIT_ARMED spurious per SG-7 (no Avg_Cost). |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.46 | HOLD | 2.46 | 2.42 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Ascendas REIT's sell label from last week has lapsed to a neutral stance and the position sits above its stop, so it drops out of the disposal pool entirely. A Sstake is immaterial regardless. Operational: STRONG SELL cv71 (08-20/21) -> AVOID cv53 -> AVOID cv63. Out of sell pool - no label, no stop break. Est_12W 2.47 vs 2.46 = +0.4%. |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 27.23 | HOLD | 27.23 | 26.56 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Jardine Cycle & Carriage remains the book's only genuinely cheap, quality-passing name, and its conviction has faded well below anything actionable. Holding above the raised trailing stop. Operational: conv collapsed. Only UNDERVALUED + Quality_Pass True name on the book (MoS +0.62, Quality_Rank #3). Ex-div ~1.02% due 09-01. Trail unchanged 26.56. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.71 | HOLD | 10.71 | 10.51 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ST Engineering firmed into a hold this session and trades above its rebased stop. The twelve-week estimate is marginally below the close, which on its own is not an exit case. Operational: NO TRADE -> HOLD cv53. Est_12W 10.61 vs 10.71 = -0.9%, but no stop break so L2 leg 1 fails. Ex-div 08-25 (~0.37%) - today. Trail unchanged 10.51. |
| U13 | UOI LTD | 8.70 | HOLD | 8.70 | 8.03 | n/a | n/a | n/a | UOI remains untradeable on signal - it fails the liquidity screen outright - but sits well above its stop with a positive twelve-week view. Holding by default. Operational: NoTrade_Reason 'Liquidity gate failed' - structural, recurring. Est_12W 8.75 vs 8.70 = +0.6%. PROFIT_ARMED spurious per SG-7. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
119 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.