Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| G07 | Great Eastern | 20.99 | SELL 30% | 20.99 | 19.32 | 21.49 (+2.4%) | 22.66 (+8.0%) | 29.19 (+39.1%) | Great Eastern has run +14.9 pct since our mid-July entry and now trades at RSI 86.3 - a sixth straight session above 82 - while momentum diverges from a price still making new highs. We are banking roughly a third of the line to lock that gain in cash and letting the remaining 70 pct ride into the 4 August Q2 result on a tightened trailing stop. Nothing has changed in the insurance business and the 12-week view is still worth about +39 pct; this is profit discipline on a stretched price, not a change of thesis. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed on the anchor row (PROFIT_ARMED printed, Gain_ATR 3.25 >= the 3.0 floor) plus one fire tick - RSI_DIV on the same row - so profit_take_1 = 30 pct. G1 softening does not apply: the signal is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D at conviction 50, not a fresh BreakoutUp/MomentumContinuation at >=80. Valuation amplify neutral (MoS_FV -0.47, nowhere near the -3 bump; SGO-3 - the bank/insurer DCF anchor is structurally non-binding on this book). INTERPRETATION FLAGGED for the learnings review: the catalyst-aware-hold clause (earnings <=5 trading days; G07 Q2 lands 08-04, exactly 5 sessions out) argues to defer, and there is no confirmed lower-high - today was a new closing high. I fired anyway because ADR-0012's profit-take rule is the later and explicitly mandatory rule and enumerates only G1/G2/G3 as surviving constraints, the 08-04 event band is a narrow +/-1.5 pct at med confidence, and 70 pct still rides through the print. Capped at the minimum 30 pct tier - never escalated. Trail on the retained raised 19..32 (2.0x ATR chandelier, the model's printed Stop_Price). Book counterfactual argues the other way (optional_trim n=2, median saved 4.52 pct) but is advisory-only per ADR-0012 and was not blended. Executes at the next open per L8; reprice if the open gaps more than ~1.5 pct. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 73.91 | HOLD | — | 68.58 | n/a | n/a | 90.41 | DBS is held at 73.91, a 2.1 pct gain, with the 12-week view still pointing about 22 pct higher and the price far above its 200-day average (58.68). Today's scan printed no trade on a consensus conflict rather than on any weakness, and last session's overbought divergence has actually cleared as RSI cooled from 80..1 - an improvement, not a crack. We hold through Wednesday's Fed decision and the 6 August Q2 result on an unchanged stop. OPERATIONAL: SGO-4 - a mechanical NO TRADE on a held name is 'not evaluated', not degradation, so arm status was derived by hand: Gain_ATR 1.28 < 3.0 and T12 progress 81.8 pct < 90, therefore not armed and ADR-0012 cannot fire. Exit_Warning blank (RSI_DIV cleared). MoS -0.60 is nowhere near the -3 valuation-elevate threshold, and SGO-3 suppresses the broken bank DCF anchor (52.03 sits below the price) anyway. Stop 68.58 unchanged, 7.2 pct below. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 28.93 | HOLD | — | 26.96 | n/a | n/a | 38.97 | OCBC is held at 28.93, a 1.1 pct gain, and carries the strongest forward view in the book - a 12-week target of 38.97, roughly 35 pct above today's close, against a 200-day average of 21.93. Like DBS it printed no trade on a consensus conflict rather than deterioration, and its overbought divergence also cleared (RSI 80..2). Three events sit ahead and all are hold-through: the Fed on 29 July, Great Eastern's Q2 on 4 August which reads straight through to OCBC as majority owner, and OCBC's own Q2 on 7 August. OPERATIONAL: SGO-4 mechanical NO TRADE, arm status derived by hand - Gain_ATR 0.56 and T12 progress 74.2 pct, so not armed and the weakest profit-take case of the three holdings. No Exit_Warning. MoS -0.62, no elevate; SGO-3 suppresses the DCF anchor. Stop 26.96 unchanged, 6.8 pct below. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.141 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.