Recommendations
2 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 24.03 | BUY — QUEUED @23.98 | 23.98 | 23.49 | 24.37 (+1.6%) | 25.28 (+5.4%) | 25.80 (+7.6%) | Singapore Exchange is the strongest signal this book has produced since inception - a four-session climb from AVOID to STRONG BUY on a pullback entry, ranked first in the book, with the price a fifth above its 200-day average and momentum still temperate at RSI 56. The business news backs the tape: SGX added US depositary receipts for Grab, Sea and SpaceX on 22 July, taking the SDR suite to 38 counters across four markets, with average daily SDR turnover more than tripled year on year and assets crossing S, and the stock has returned 43 pct year-to-date. We are buying just below the close on a limit and risking about 2 pct to the stop. The one caution we are accepting knowingly: SGX reports FY2026 full-year results on 6 August with a plus-or-minus 5 pct expected swing, so this position will be carried into a real event. OPERATIONAL: raw conviction 81, val_adj -10 (MoS_FV -1.90 on a ResInc anchor of 8.16 vs the 24.03 price - a legitimate haircut here since S68 is IsFinancial with FV_method ResInc), scorecard bias 0 (no actionable cells), adjusted 71 >= the 65 floor. This EXACTLY meets the re-arm trigger set on 07-28 (raw conviction >=75, non-extended entry, RSI <75): 81 / EDATR -0.13 / RSI 56.1. L1-favoured family (PullbackBuy_VWAP). Quality_Pass=True so the gate is a genuine pass, not an SGO-3 carve-out. Size modifier 0.75x (-3 < MoS <= -1): 0.9651 x 2,026,646 x 20 pct x 0.75 = S -> at 23.98 = S (14.4 pct of book; max_position_pct 60 pct and both non-binding). SGO-5 queue style: EDATR -0.13 < 0 so a limit at the printed model entry 23.98, NOT a deeper self-invented level; expires after 3 sessions (2026-08-03). DCF anchor 13.26 suppressed per SGO-3 - meaningless on a ResInc financial. Executes at the next open per L8. · news |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 43.89 | BUY | 43.89 | 43.10 | 44.36 (+1.1%) | 45.45 (+3.6%) | 51.54 (+17.4%) | UOB completes the book's Singapore bank trio and carries the healthiest forward view of the three - a 12-week target near 51.54, some 17 pct above today's close, against a 200-day average of 37.57. The signal has climbed for five straight sessions (WATCH -> 63 -> BUY 60 -> BUY 71) and RSI is a temperate 65, so this is not a stretched entry the way DBS and OCBC now look. The news supports the fee-income leg of the story: UOB is expanding its wealth relationship team by 60 pct to 450 over five years and adding a Hong Kong booking centre to capture mainland wealth flows, and it joined Blackstone's roughly US$3bn AirTrunk data-centre financing on 24 July. We buy at the model entry and risk about 1.8 pct to the stop, holding through the 7 August Q2 result. OPERATIONAL: raw conviction 71, val_adj -3 (MoS_FV -0.60), bias 0, adjusted 68 >= the 65 floor. EXACTLY meets the re-arm trigger set on 07-28 (raw conviction >=68 at a non-extended entry): 71 / EDATR 0.00 / RSI 65.1. Quality_Pass=False is the standard IsFinancial ResInc false-fail and is NON-BINDING per SGO-3 - it does not block this add; the DCF anchor of 0.29 is structurally broken and suppressed for the same reason. L1 caveat stated honestly: the family is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, which L1 discounts as a chase - but EDATR is 0.00 (entry = close, no chase in practice), the conviction ladder is five sessions long, and the cell is report-only (no actionable bias), so the discount is a tiebreak note rather than a haircut. Size modifier 1.0x (MoS > -1): 0.6918 x 2,026,646 x 20 pct = S -> at 43.89 = S (13.9 pct of book). Executes at the next open per L8. · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 21.52 | SELL 30% | 21.52 | 19.83 | 21.86 (+1.6%) | 22.66 (+5.3%) | 30.42 (+41.4%) | Great Eastern is now up almost 18 pct since our mid-July entry and trades at RSI 88 - a seventh straight session above 82 - with momentum diverging from a price still making new highs. This is the same profit-take we called on 28 July, repriced: that order never executed, and the stock has since run another 2.5 pct in our favour, so we are banking roughly a third of the line at the better price and letting 70 pct ride into the 4 August Q2 result on a raised trailing stop. Nothing has changed in the insurance business - the 12-week view is still worth about +41 pct - this is profit discipline on a stretched price, not a change of thesis. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed + fired, and the arm is STRONGER than on 07-28 - Gain_ATR 3..84 (floor 3.0) with PROFIT_ARMED and RSI_DIV both printing on the anchor row. One genuine fire tick (a) RSI_DIV -> profit_take_1 = 30 pct. Tick (b) conviction collapse is DISCOUNTED per SGO-4: today's row is a mechanical NoTrade_Reason 'Liquidity gate failed', i.e. not evaluated, not deterioration; tick (c) does not fire (12wk 30.42 >> 1.02 x close); tick (d) needs 2 consecutive NO TRADE and 07-28 printed HOLD. So the tier stays at the MINIMUM 30 pct - not escalated. Valuation amplify neutral (MoS_FV -0.47, nowhere near the -3 bump); SGO-3 suppresses the blank/broken insurer DCF anchor. Catalyst-aware-hold conflict is UNCHANGED from 07-28 and resolved the same way: G07 Q2 lands 08-04, now 4 sessions out, inside the <=5 window with no confirmed lower-high - but ADR-0012's fire rule is the later, explicitly mandatory rule, the event band is a narrow +/-1.5 pct at med confidence, and 70 pct still rides through the print. The doctrinal gap remains queued for the learnings review. Counterfactual argues the other way (optional_trim n=2, median saved 4.52 pct at 1wk) and is advisory-only per ADR-0012 - it held the tier at the floor but did not veto. Trail on the retained raised 19..83 (2.0x ATR chandelier from the 21.52 close, derived by hand because the liquidity gate blanked Stop_Price - SGO-4), locking about +8.5 pct vs the 18.27 cost. 1wk/4wk carried from the 07-28 anchor's last valid Target_Price 22.66 since today's row is blanked. News: none found - a Yahoo page again echoed a stale G07 quote of 15.79 against the scan's 21.52; ignored per L4, the settled close is authoritative. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.00 | HOLD | — | 68.58 | n/a | n/a | 92.02 | DBS is held at 75.00 for a 3.6 pct gain and the signal actually IMPROVED today - back to a bullish momentum-continuation read after two soft sessions - with the 12-week view still pointing about 23 pct higher and the price far above its 200-day average of 58.85. RSI is hot at 79 and an overbought divergence is printing again, which is why we are not adding, but a hot RSI on a bank in a rate-supported tape is not an exit. We hold through the 6 August Q2 result on an unchanged stop. OPERATIONAL: NOT armed - Gain_ATR 2.20 < 3.0 and T12 progress 81.5 pct < 90 - so ADR-0012 cannot fire despite the RSI_DIV Exit_Warning. The valuation-elevate path needs MoS_FV < -3 and DBS is -0.60; SGO-3 suppresses the broken bank DCF anchor (52.03 sits below the price) and the Quality_Pass=False false-fail. G3 blocks any trim outright: the forward view is solidly positive and the signal is bullish - cutting this is cutting a winner. Stop deliberately held at 68.58 (8.6 pct below) and NOT tightened to the model's printed 72.21: that level sits below our 72.42 cost so it locks nothing, and a 3.7 pct stop into a plus-or-minus 4 pct earnings band would be a coin-flip stop-out. Not loosened either. Broader read is neutral: SG banks are at record highs with DBS on 2.8x book and 17.6x forward earnings, well above five-year averages - a valuation caution, not a sell signal (CLAUDE.md section 9). · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 29.78 | HOLD | — | 26.96 | n/a | n/a | 38.58 | OCBC is held at 29.78 for a 4.0 pct gain and carries the second-strongest forward view in the book - a 12-week target of 38.58, roughly 30 pct above today's close, against a 200-day average of 22.01. The scan printed no trade on a liquidity gate rather than on any weakness, and while an overbought divergence is showing at RSI 78 the position is nowhere near a profit-take. Three events sit ahead and all are hold-through: Great Eastern's Q2 on 4 August, which reads straight through since OCBC is the majority owner, OCBC's own Q2 on 7 August, and the post-FOMC rate path. OPERATIONAL: SGO-4 - the NoTrade_Reason is 'Liquidity gate failed', a mechanical not-evaluated print, not degradation, so arm status was derived by hand: Gain_ATR 1.89 < 3.0 and T12 progress 77.2 pct < 90, therefore NOT armed and ADR-0012 cannot fire on the RSI_DIV. MoS_FV -0.62 is far from the -3 valuation-elevate threshold; SGO-3 suppresses the DCF anchor (25.10, below price) and the Quality_Pass=False false-fail. Stop 26.96 unchanged, 9.5 pct below, live into FOMC and not loosened. Worth pairing with today's G07 trim: OCBC owns Great Eastern, so the 08-04 print touches both lines. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.141 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.