SG Off-the-Radar — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE queued (J36 GTC limit @US, exp 08-06); 1 DISPOSE (G07 30% profit-take); O39 07-31 queue withdrawn
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 65.18 | BUY — QUEUED @64.21 | 64.21 | 61.51 | 66.38 (+3.4%) | 71.43 (+11.2%) | 62.84 (-2.1%) | Jardine Matheson is the cheapest quality name the book can actually act on: both intrinsic methods agree it trades well under fair value - earnings-power value USand DCF USagainst a USshare price - and it has just printed its first buy signal in weeks, a pullback-to-VWAP entry rather than a chase. This is a value entry, not a momentum one: revenue is still shrinking and the model's own 12-week drift is slightly negative, so it is bought for the asset backing and the discount, with a stop 4% below and a 4-week objective 11% higher. Sized at a full standard weight but no more, funded entirely from cash. || OPERATIONAL: SGO-5 queue style - GTC limit placed at the anchor's printed model Entry_Price (64.21), limit-style because Entry_Distance_ATR -0.44 < 0; never a deeper self-invented level. L1 favored cell (PullbackBuy_VWAP). Fresh single print admitted under 'stable or fresh'. CURRENCY: J36 is USD-quoted on SGX (Price_Currency=USD) while the scan renders 'S$' - sizing hand-converted at USD/SGD 1.28239, entry = S, = SSize modulator held at 1.0x (not the 1.25x UNDERVALUED+Quality_Pass permits) because Target_12Week 62.84 < entry 64.21. f=0.30 for the 1wk per L5/SGO-2 (calib_1w 0.141 on <10 graded buys). Auto-withdraw if conviction < 65 or expires_on passes; reprice to the live model entry each session. · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 22.30 | SELL 30% | 22.30 | 20.37 | n/a | n/a | 31.78 (+42.5%) | Great Eastern has run 35% in a month and 42% year to date, and after its half-year results on 30 July the shares now sit almost exactly on an independent fair-value estimate of S - the easy money has been made. The position is up 22% and the move has become stretched: the RSI is near 90 and diverging from price, the classic sign of a rally running on fumes. Banking 30% locks in the gain while leaving 70% invested behind a raised trailing stop, because the twelve-week outlook is still constructive - this is a de-risk, not an exit. || OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed + fired. Armed = PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 4.18 (>=3.0), +22.06%, T12_Progress 70.17. Fire tick (a) RSI_DIV on the same row = 1 tick -> profit_take_1 30%. Tick (d) SUPPRESSED per SGO-4 (the NO TRADE prints are 'Liquidity gate failed' = mechanical non-evaluation, not deterioration). Tick (c) not fired - T12 31.78 > 1.02x close 22.75, so 30% and not a full exit. G1 does not protect (requires fresh BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* at cv>=80; this is NoTrade cv0). G2/G3 govern the valuation-elevate path only. Catalyst-aware hold cleared - no G07 event in the fresh 08-03 horizon. Valuation amplify NOT applied: MoS -0.671 is not <=-3, and SGO-3 makes the insurer ResInc band non-informative. Action price = anchor close 22.30 (row blanked by the liquidity gate, derived by hand per SGO-4). 1wk/4wk n/a - no Target_Price to interpolate f against. Proceeds Srealized +SRemaining, trail raised 20.20 -> 20.37 (2.0xATR chandelier). L3 - proposed 07-28, re-issued 07-29, declined 07-31 as advisory; execute it now. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 74.45 | HOLD | 74.45 | 70.95 | n/a | 76.53 (+2.8%) | 93.50 (+25.6%) | DBS is held unchanged into second-quarter results on 6 August. The position is modestly ahead, the twelve-week view is still 26% higher, and there is no warning on the row - the signal has gone quiet rather than turned. Results are to be held through rather than pre-positioned around, and the mid-August dividend will knock about 1% off the price mechanically, which is a payment to shareholders and not a reason to sell. || OPERATIONAL: Not armed - Gain_ATR 1.96 < 3.0 and T12_Progress 79.63 < 90, so the ADR-0012 path does not open. No Exit_Warning. Conviction but no label change and no stop break. Trail left at 70.95 (NOT tightened): horizon stance for the 08-06 print is hold-through, and the 13-17 Aug ex-date is a corporate action that must not originate or amplify a trim. |
| S58 | SATS | 4.81 | NO ACTION | 4.81 | 4.46 | 5.01 (+4.2%) | 5.49 (+14.1%) | 6.24 (+29.7%) | SATS is the strongest technical setup in the book - a fresh 20-day breakout, the highest conviction and the top buy rank - but it is not being bought, because the valuation model marks it well above its estimated worth and that haircut pulls it just below the bar for new money. The disagreement is worth stating plainly: the model's cash-flow estimate says the shares are cheap while its earnings-power estimate says they are expensive, and the framework uses the more conservative one. Logged so the cost of standing aside can be measured. || OPERATIONAL: adj 73 - 10 + 0 = 63, two points under the 65 floor. val_adj = clamp(round(-2.4386 x 5), -10, 0) = -10, driven by FV_method=EPV (FV 1.399, a no-growth floor) on a name with Rev_Growth +9.0%, F_Score 8, ROE 10.4%, FCF yield 6.5% - while MoS_DCF is +0.42 and the engine's own Val_Signal reads FAIR_VALUE. Rule applied as written; no exemption invented mid-run. Ledgered direction=none/optional=true so the counterfactual grader prices what the haircut cost. Systemic finding #1; candidate learning for the next review. Re-arm: raw cv >=75 while the EPV anchor stands, or a corrected FV method. 1wk uses f=0.30. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
7 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.141 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.