SG Off-the-Radar — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE queued (J36 GTC limit @US, repriced from 64.21, exp 08-07); DISPOSE NO ACTION; G07 armed-not-fired, trail 20.37 -> 20.48; 9CI STRONG BUY cv85 blocked by the quality gate
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 64.98 | BUY — QUEUED @64.30 | 64.30 | 61.76 | 66.34 (+3.2%) | 71.09 (+10.6%) | 62.19 (-3.3%) | Jardine Matheson remains the one genuinely cheap quality name the book can act on: both intrinsic methods put it far above the market price - an earnings-power value of USand a discounted-cash-flow value of USagainst a USshare price - and it passes the quality screen where most of the book fails it. The buy trigger is a pullback-to-average-price setup, the most reliable entry pattern in this playbook, and it has now printed for a second straight session. The honest caveat is that this is a value entry, not a momentum one: revenue is shrinking about 4%, returns on are thin, and the model's own twelve-week view is slightly negative and has drifted lower this week - which is why the order is a patient limit below the market rather than a market buy, and why it is sized at the standard weight instead of the larger one the cheapness alone would allow. OPERATIONAL: repriced from the 08-03 GTC @US, which did not fill (today's low US) - per SGO-5/provenance the limit moves to the live model Entry_Price 64.30, never a deeper self-invented level; reprice-suppression tests both pass (RSI 52.6 < 75; entry 64.30 < close 64.98). Auto-withdraw not triggered (adj 68 >= 65 floor, prior expiry 08-06 not passed); expiry re-based to 08-07 (08-10 National Day excluded). CURRENCY: USD-quoted on SGX - entry US = Sat USD/SGD 1.28354; = SRisk US = S = 0.55% of book. L1 favoured cell; L5 f=0.30 (calib_1w 0.141, <10 graded buys); L8 executes at the 08-05 open. Withdraw triggers: adj conviction <65, expiry 08-07 passed, RSI>75, or printed entry rising to/above the close. · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 21.98 | HOLD | 21.98 | 20.48 | n/a | n/a | 31.32 (+42.5%) | The 30% profit-take decided on Monday was executed this morning at S, banking about Son a 22% gain, and the remaining are being held rather than cut further. The warning that triggered that trim - momentum diverging from price - has cleared from today's reading, the stock is cooling off from a very overbought level without breaking down, the twelve-week view is still more than 40% above the current price, and a Sdividend goes ex on 19 August, worth roughly Son this holding. Trimming the same winner twice in two sessions on a one-day wobble is how a book gives back a 35% run, so the protective stop is raised instead, to S - about 7% below the market - which banks more of the gain automatically if the pullback turns into something real. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 4.07, +20.31%, T12_Progress 70.18) but NOT fired - tick (a) RSI_DIV cleared from today's row, leaving PROFIT_ARMED standalone; tick (b) not establishable (Conviction_Score 0 both sessions - 08-03 liquidity-gate blanked, 08-04 genuine consensus conflict - though the momentum pillar did collapse and consensus flipped Bullish->Conflicted, logged as a watch item not a fire); tick (c) not fired (T12 31.32 vs 1.02x close 22.42); tick (d) NOT fired - 07-31 and 08-03 NO TRADEs were both 'Liquidity gate failed', mechanical and suppressed by SGO-4, so today is only the FIRST genuine print. Standalone armed => mandatory trail-raise. Trail = 2.0xATR chandelier off the peak close 22.30: 22.30 - 2 x 0.9115 = 20.48 (ratchet - the same formula off today's 21.98 close gives 20.16 and a trail never falls). ADR-0020 Peak Stop 20.48 = live, 0% erosion. Valuation MoS -0.671 does not amplify (not <=-3) and SGO-3 makes the ResInc band non-informative. L3 - the de-risk is done, do not re-recommend it. RE-ARM: a second consecutive GENUINE NO TRADE, or the return of any Exit_Warning code, fires profit_take_2 = 50%. Ex-div 08-19 is a mechanical drop and must never originate a trim. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 74.50 | HOLD | 74.50 | 70.95 | n/a | 76.62 (+2.8%) | 93.05 (+24.9%) | DBS is held unchanged into second-quarter results on 6 August. The shares closed at a fresh high today, the position is about 3% ahead, the twelve-week view is still some 25% higher, and there is no warning flag on the position. The protective stop is deliberately left wide at Srather than tightened: an ordinary in-band reaction to the results would take out a closer stop for no reason, and the mid-August dividend payment mechanically knocks the price down without saying anything about the business. OPERATIONAL: conviction recovered. Not armed (Gain_ATR 1.97 < 3.0, T12_Progress 80.06 < 90), no Exit_Warning. Model Stop_Price prints 73.36 = today's low, -1.5%; NOT adopted because the +-4% hold-through earnings band floor is 74.50 x 0.96 = 71.52, below which 70.95 correctly sits. Resume tracking the model stop after the 08-06 print. ADR-0020 Peak Stop 70.95 = live, 0% erosion. SGO-3: Quality_Pass False and the SDCF anchor are structurally non-binding on an SG bank (FV=ResInc); no valuation adjustment. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 28.72 | HOLD | 28.57 | 27.73 | n/a | 30.32 (+6.1%) | 37.10 (+29.9%) | OCBC is held unchanged into second-quarter results on 7 August. The buy setup is still there - a pullback-to-average-price pattern for the fourth session running, with a twelve-week view roughly 29% higher - but the conviction behind it, at 60, is below the bar for committing fresh money, so no shares are added. The position is essentially flat on cost and shows no warning flags. The stop is left at Srather than tightened to the model's S, for the same reason as DBS: an in-band earnings reaction should not be allowed to knock the position out. OPERATIONAL: cv60 < 65 floor, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.28 (entry 28.57 below the 28.72 close). Not armed (Gain_ATR 0.17). The 07-31 ADD queue stays withdrawn; re-arm requires BUY - ADD at cv >= 65 with the entry printed below the close. Earnings band floor 28.72 x 0.96 = 27.57; resume tracking the model stop after the 08-07 print. ADR-0020 Peak Stop 27.73 = live, 0% erosion. SGO-3: Quality_Pass False / DCF 25.10 non-binding on an SG bank. |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.73 | NO ACTION | 2.69 | 2.52 | 2.80 (+4.1%) | 3.04 (+13.0%) | 2.75 (+2.2%) | CapitaLand Investment produced the strongest technical signal in the book today - a decisive breakout to a new high on very heavy volume, the top-ranked buy - and it is not being bought. The business behind the chart does not support it: revenue is shrinking about 24%, the return on is barely above 1%, it ranks last of seventeen names on quality, and a discounted-cash-flow valuation puts it near Sagainst a Sshare price. On top of that the shares have already run well past the level the model wanted to buy at, are overbought, and the model's own twelve-week view is essentially flat - a breakout it expects to go nowhere. The company reports half-year results on 13 August; a cheaper, calmer entry after those numbers would be a far better risk than chasing this one. OPERATIONAL: adj conviction 76 clears the 65 floor but the QUALITY GATE is a hard block on new entries (Quality_Pass False, F_Score 5, ROE 1.15%, Rev_Growth -24.2%, Quality_Rank 14/17). SGO-3 does NOT apply - IsFinancial=False, Sector Real Estate, FV_method DCF not ResInc - so this is a genuine quality failure, not the structural artifact SGO-3 neutralises; no exemption invented mid-run. Independently blocked by: chase (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.72 through the 2.69 buy-stop, closed on the high, RSI 77.31 > 75 = SGO-5 reprice-suppression), dead forward view (T12 2.75 vs close 2.73 = +0.7%), and valuation floor (MoS_FV -1.810, priced at 2.9x the DCF anchor). L1 discounts breakout chases. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices what declining the book's highest-conviction print cost or saved. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.141 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.