SG Off-the-Radar — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACQUISITIONS + 3 DISPOSE + 1 QUEUE WITHDRAWAL. No name in the book clears the 65 conviction floor as a buy, so the ACQUIRE bucket is an affirmative NO ACTION and the ANTICIPATE slot stays empty. The 08-14 S68 GTC @Sis WITHDRAWN: it never filled while SGX ran to S (+5.1% above the limit) and conviction collapsed, tripping the ADR-0012 auto-withdraw two sessions early; adj 49 after val_adj -9 leaves it 16 points under the floor. SGX's business is fine (H1 net revenue +7.6%, dividend raised to 11c) - this is a price and signal-quality rejection, and it re-arms on a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP at raw cv >= 74. Closest miss is S63 ST Engineering at adj 64, one point short, and separately ineligible for the anticipate slot with only required ANTICIPATE prints - the missing 08-14 print was erased by the liquidity-gate misfire, but a print that does not exist cannot be inferred. THREE TRIMS, all held, all 30%: J36 JARDINE MATHESON - @Son §9 sustained non-buy now at N=6, with the 12-week view falling every session to -12.9% and the close 3% below its 200-day average; the full-exit clause did NOT fire (close 62.18 vs the 61.76 line) so it stays live on the remaining, and UNDERVALUED MoS +0.38 holds the tier at the 30% floor rather than escalating. O39 OCBC - @Son ADR-0012, armed at Gain_ATR 4.27 (+10.2%) with a THIRD consecutive momentum divergence at a rising RSI 78.9 and price 39.7% above EMA200; read the 24c dip correctly - the 47c dividend went ex TODAY, so like-for-like the shares ROSE and conviction rose : this is a trim on extension, not deterioration. G07 GREAT EASTERN - @Son ADR-0012, the most armed position in the book at Gain_ATR 8.34 (+24.5%) with a fresh divergence at RSI 81.9, selling into a dividend run ahead of the 08-19 ex-date; the same row simultaneously prints BUY - ADD at adj 68, and the add is suppressed by SGO-5 on both of its conditions at once (RSI > 75 and entry above the close) - the mandatory profit-take wins the collision. Net realised +Son Sof proceeds. HOLDS: D05 7,700 with the trail HELD at 74.59 because the printed stop came in lower and a trail never steps down - conviction has decayed -> 46 with divergence at RSI 72, which would be tick (b) but D05 is NOT armed, so it is a watch item; S58 60,200 with the trail raised to 4.61 as conviction recovered. Zero trail erosion book-wide. THE REAL FINDING IS NOT RISK, IT IS IDLENESS: the book sits at 50.3% cash and these trims take it to 51.5%, against a no_chase_queue counterfactual reading [cost] at a median withheld +5.24% 1wk / +11.04% 4wk across n=24 - two independent measurements of the same defect, entries priced too far below market and capital that never. Systemic: the liquidity gate is inverted or spike-bounded, not a low-volume floor - it blocked the two largest turnovers in the book on 08-14 and a 1.68m-share name today while passing a 111k-share name, and it cost the anticipate slot by erasing S63's second print.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 62.18 | SELL 30% | 62.18 | 61.76 | n/a | n/a | 54.16 (-12.9%) | Jardine Matheson has now printed a non-buy signal for six straight sessions and its 12-week outlook has fallen every single session to 12.9% below the current price, with the shares trading below every moving average including the 200-day. We are cutting a further 30% of the position while the valuation still looks cheap on paper - a cheap price is not a reason to hold a falling trend, but it is a reason to trim the minimum rather than exit outright. Origination: CLAUDE.md §9 sustained non-buy, N=6 (NO TRADE x2 then AVOID x4), Target_12Week monotonic 59.40->54.16 (-12.9%), close 62.18 is 3.0% below EMA200 65.05. The 08-14 full-exit clause did NOT fire - it required a decisive close below 61.76 and the settled close is 62.18 (L4), so the ladder continues at the 30% floor and the full-exit clause stays live on the remaining. PROFIT_ARMED is a false positive for the 7th session (loss, Gain_ATR -0.86; degenerate T12_Progress 114.81) - this is NOT an ADR-0012 fire. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.38 amplifies DOWN, holding the tier at 30%. 30% x 900 = 270 -> floor to 100-lot =. Realised -S (cost 63.55). 1wk/4wk n/a - the bearish signal prints no long Target_Price, stated not synthesized. MANDATORY: trail steps 61.76 -> 61.11 on 08-20 (65c ex-div adjustment, NOT a lowering); printed Stop_Price 65.35 is the short-side stop, not applicable to a long. Ladder ->. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.55 | SELL 30% | 31.55 | 30.09 | 32.10 (+1.7%) | 35.56 (+12.7%) | 41.66 (+32.0%) | OCBC is up 10.2% for us and has become genuinely stretched - the third straight session of momentum divergence at an RSI of 79, with the shares nearly 40% above their 200-day average. We are banking a third of the position into that strength and letting the rest run toward a still-healthy 12-week target. Note the 24-cent dip today is purely the 47-cent dividend going ex - on a like-for-like basis the shares actually rose, so this is a trim on extension, not on deterioration. Origination: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed Gain_ATR 4.27 (+10.2%, PROFIT_ARMED) + tick (a) third consecutive RSI_DIV at a RISING RSI 75.2->76.6->77.9->78.9, +39.7% over EMA200. G1 does not shield - AnticipationUp_VCP is not a BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* family, so the softening clause never engages regardless of cv 78. Ticks (b)/(c)/(d) did not fire (conviction ROSE; T12 41.66 alive). Ex-div 47c captured today = Son. MoS -0.77 is not <= -3 so no tier bump, size_mod 1.0. 30% x 2,100 = 630 -> floor =. Realised +S (cost 28.63). f=0.138 on the 1wk. DCF annotation SUPPRESSED per SGO-3 (ResInc financial). Trail RAISED 30.41 -> 30.09 (a genuine +15c on the 29.94 ex-div-adjusted basis). Horizon: FOMC minutes 08-20, two-sided +-2.0% high-confidence - de-risking into a two-sided macro event is the conservative side of the catalyst-aware-hold clause, not a pre-trim into a favourable catalyst. Ladder -> -> 1,500 (26% of original still riding). · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 22.74 | SELL 30% | 22.74 | 21.89 | 23.21 (+2.1%) | 26.17 (+15.1%) | 31.99 (+40.7%) | Great Eastern is our best position at +24.5% and also our most overheated - RSI 82, the highest in the book, with momentum now diverging from price, and today's 2.4% pop is a run into Wednesday's dividend that typically gives itself back on the ex-date. We are banking 30% into that run and keeping for what is still the strongest 12-week outlook we hold (+41%). Origination: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed Gain_ATR 8.34 (+24.5%, the most armed in the book) + tick (a) fresh RSI_DIV at RSI 81.9. G1 does NOT shield it - the signal IS MomentumContinuation_Up but conviction 71 is 9 points short of the 80 bar. IMPORTANT COLLISION: the same row prints BUY - ADD at adj 68 (Buy_Rank 1) - the add is SUPPRESSED by SGO-5 on both of its conditions at once (RSI 81.9 > 75, and the model entry 22.96 sits ABOVE the 22.74 close), and a name cannot be added to and trimmed in the same session; the mandatory ADR-0012 fire wins over the discretionary, gated-out add. Logged as systemic finding #2. MoS -0.68 not <= -3 so no tier bump. 30% x 1,200 = 360 -> floor =. Realised +S (cost 18.27), the book's best trim. Trimming at the 08-18 open forfeits 300 x 35c = Snear a wash against the mechanical ex-div mark-down. DCF blank -> annotation SUPPRESSED per SGO-3. Trail RAISED 21.41 -> 21.89, then steps to 21.54 on 08-19 (35c ex-div adjustment, NOT a lowering). Ladder ->. Never a full exit from profit-take alone. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.88 | HOLD | 77.22 | 74.59 | 78.12 (+1.2%) | 85.88 (+11.2%) | 95.75 (+24.0%) | Holding all 7,700 DBS shares - our largest position at 29% of the book and up 2.9% - with the stop unchanged at S. Signal quality has faded three sessions running, so this is a watch, not a concern: the position is not extended enough to justify banking profit, and we are not adding into a 52-week-high breakout that this book's history says overshoots. Trail HOLDS at 74.59: today's printed stop 74.47 is LOWER and a trail never steps down. Conviction decayed -> 46 across three sessions and the row now carries RSI_DIV at RSI 72.0 - that 25-point slide WOULD be ADR-0012 tick (b), but D05 is NOT armed (Gain_ATR 1.58 < 3.0, T12_Progress 80.3% < 90), so it is a watch item, not a fire. Signal rotated to BreakoutUp_52W, which per L1 overshoots its 4wk targets - do not read the 85.88 as an add trigger. Q-fail non-binding per SGO-3; DCF annotation suppressed. Horizon: FOMC minutes 08-20 two-sided +-2.0% high-confidence, stance hold-through. f=0.138 on the 1wk. |
| S58 | SATS | 4.75 | HOLD | 4.75 | 4.61 | 4.78 (+0.6%) | 4.97 (+4.6%) | 5.69 (+19.8%) | Holding all 60,200 SATS shares and nudging the stop up to S. The position is still slightly underwater at -2.1% but improving - price up 1.3% today, signal quality recovering, and the 12-week path intact - so nothing argues for cutting it. Trail RAISED 4.60 -> 4.61 (printed stop). Conviction recovered, T12_Progress 83.5% and rising, no Exit_Warning, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.92). Nothing originated a sell under any of the three §9 classes. f=0.138 on the 1wk. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 11.13 | BUY-STOP | 11.00 | 9.98 | n/a | 13.05 (+18.6%) | 10.62 (-3.5%) | ST Engineering is the closest thing to a buy in the book today and we are still standing aside. The signal is a promising early-stage setup, but the shares already trade far above what the fundamentals support, which knocks it just below our threshold - and our rules require the setup to appear twice before we will chase it, which it has not. On the watchlist for a second confirmation. Adj 64 = cv 74 + val_adj -10 (MoS -8.91), ONE point under the 65 floor. Separately INELIGIBLE for the ADR-0012 anticipate slot: BUY - ANTICIPATE printed in only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (needs >= 2), even though cv 74 clears the 55 slot floor. NOTE the 08-14 print is missing because the LIQUIDITY GATE MISFIRED on (systemic #1) - but a print that does not exist cannot be inferred, so the slot stays empty. Target_12Week 10.62 sits BELOW the 11.13 close, i.e. a dead forward view, which is an independent reason not to reach. Watch for a second ANTICIPATE print; size would be 0.5x normal new-BUY as a GTC buy-stop at the live model entry. |
Outcome & track record