Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 61.72 | SELL ALL | 61.72 | 61.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 53.21 (-13.8%) | Full exit. The 14 Aug full-exit clause fired: Jardine Matheson settled at S, below its Strailing stop, and the signal engine escalated from four sessions of AVOID to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (Sell_Rank 1, position status CLOSING). The 12-week model view has fallen every session for twelve sessions and now sits 13.8% BELOW the current price, with the shares 5.1% under their 200-day trend line - a deteriorating name where the risk line has already been broken. The shares screen cheap on asset value (MoS +0.38), but a cheap price is not a reason to hold a broken trend: valuation can amplify a sell, never veto one. Exit reason: fired full-exit clause + stop breach + negative 12wk (L2). The UNDERVALUED tier-down (§9 amplify-down) is OVERRIDDEN - amplify-only rules scale discretionary trims, not a signal-originated exit with a pre-armed clause and a breached stop. PROFIT_ARMED on this row is a false positive for an 8th session (Gain_ATR -1.25; degenerate T12_Progress 115.99 vs a target below cost). Ladder ends -> -> 0. Realised -Son (cost 63.55); proceeds S1wk/4wk n/a - FailedBreakout_Down_20D prints no long leg. Forfeits the USex-div of 08-20 (~S) against ~Sof projected 12-week downside. Trail 61.76 and its scheduled 08-20 step to 61.11 are retired. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.95 | SELL 30% | 30.95 | 30.09 | n/a | n/a | 42.56 (+37.5%) | Taking a third off a big winner. OCBC is up 8.1% for the book and trades 36.5% above its 200-day trend with RSI at 70, and the signal engine has just gone silent on it - conviction collapsed from 78 to zero in a single session on 'consensus conflict + low conviction'. That combination - a stretched price plus a signal that has stopped speaking - is when a profit is worth banking, and the FOMC minutes land on 08-19 with a two-sided reaction. We keep because the 12-week view (S, +37.5%) is still very much alive; the bank is richly priced on book value (MoS -0.77) but that alone would never trigger a sale. Exit reason: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed (Gain_ATR 3.31) + tick (b) conviction collapse. Verified genuine, NOT an SGO-4 mechanical blank: no liquidity-gate reason string, full position columns intact. G1 is irrelevant (it softens tick (a) only). Ticks (c)/(d) did not fire. 30% x 1,500 = 450 -> floor to 100-lot =, S; MoS -0.77 not <= -3 so no tier bump. Ladder -> ->. Realised +S (cost 28.63). 1wk/4wk n/a - NoTrade row prints no entry/stop/target. DCF annotation suppressed per SGO-3 (ResInc financial). Trail HOLDS at 30.09 (a trail never steps down). Captured the 47c ex-div on 08-17 (Son). · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 22.55 | SELL 30% | 22.55 | 21.89 | n/a | n/a | 31.53 (+39.8%) | Banking a slice of the book's best trade. Great Eastern is up 23.4% on cost - a +34.9% month - and RSI 77 puts it well into overbought territory, 30% above its 200-day trend. Yesterday's BUY signal collapsed to no signal at all overnight (conviction 71 to zero), and the insurer goes ex-dividend on 35c tomorrow, so the easy part of this run is behind it. We take off and keep 700, because the 12-week view (S, +39.8%) is the strongest forward number in the book - this is profit-taking on extension, not an exit. Exit reason: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed (Gain_ATR 7.95, most armed in book) + tick (b) conviction collapse. Genuine engine verdict, not an SGO-4 mechanical blank (position columns intact). EXECUTION NOTE: 08-19 IS the ex-dividend open (35c) - holding through today's cum-date close earns Son, and the open marks down ~35c so expect a fill near S (~S). That mark-down is NOT a gap and must NOT trigger an L8 reprice. 30% x 900 = 270 -> floor =; MoS -0.68 not <= -3, no tier bump. Ladder -> -> 700. Realised +Sat the expected ex-div fill (cost 18.27). 1wk/4wk n/a - NoTrade row. DCF blank -> annotation suppressed per SGO-3. Trail holds 21.89 today, steps to 21.54 on 08-19 (ex-div adjustment, NOT a lowering). · news |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 11.15 | BUY-STOP — QUEUED @11.16 | 11.16 | 10.25 | 11.41 (+2.2%) | 12.99 (+16.4%) | 10.98 (-1.6%) | A quarter-sized starter in ST Engineering, and only if the stock breaks higher. The defence-and-aerospace group is coiling just under a pivot at Safter booking S9bn of new contracts in Q2 and closing June with a S7bn order book - the model has flagged it as an anticipation setup two sessions running. The order is a buy-stop, so it only executes on strength; if the breakout never comes, nothing is bought. The catch is price: the shares already discount a lot of that growth (margin of safety -8.9, the worst in the book) and the 12-week model view is slightly NEGATIVE at S, which is why this is deliberately quarter-sized with a hard stop rather than a full position. It is a four-week momentum trade, not a twelve-week thesis. ANTICIPATE slot (4th slot, not one of the 3 ACQUIRE): BUY - ANTICIPATE in 2 of last 3 snapshots (08-17 cv74, 08-18 cv70), clearing the >=2-of-3 test that failed by one print yesterday. Adj 60 = 70 raw -10 val_adj (cap) vs the slot's own 55 floor; does NOT clear the 65 ACQUIRE floor, correctly takes no ACQUIRE slot. Sizing: 69.8% x book Sx buy_pct 20% = S -> x0.5 size modulator (MoS <= -3) -> x0.5 anticipate = S -> 6,351 -> floor to 100-lot =, S = 3.5% of book. Stop 10.25 = -8.2%, risk S = 0.28% of book. Entry_Distance_ATR +0.03 (buy-stop 1c over the close, self-limiting). DCF annotation STANDS (industrial, SGO-3 does not apply): 12wk 10.98 > DCF 6.92 - exceeds DCF anchor, projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. f = 0.138 on the 1wk. Ex-div 4c on 08-25 inside the queue window, immaterial. Queued at the model entry per SGO-5, no self-invented deeper limit. Expires 2026-08-21; withdraw on expiry or if conviction falls below the slot's 55 floor. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.72 | HOLD | — | 75.31 | n/a | 78.45 | 93.61 | Hold DBS and raise the stop. The book's largest holding (28.7%) is up modestly and its 12-week view is still strongly positive (S, +23.6%), but the signal has been fading for four straight sessions - conviction - so we tighten the risk line to Srather than add or trim. The FOMC minutes hit SG banks on 08-20 with a two-sided reaction; the discipline is to hold and trail through the event, not pre-trim into it. NOT armed for a profit-take (Gain_ATR 0.75 < 3.0, T12_Progress 80.9% < 90), so the four-session conviction decay is a watch item, not an ADR-0012 fire. Trail RAISED 74.59 -> 75.31 (printed stop above prior trail). ADR-0020 clean. WATCH TRIGGER: if it arms (Gain_ATR >= 3.0) while conviction stays sub-50, it becomes a fire next session. |
| S58 | SATS | 4.76 | HOLD | — | 4.67 | n/a | 4.97 | 5.68 | Hold SATS and raise the stop to S. The ground-handling and food-solutions group is the only improving name in the book - conviction has climbed over four sessions, its 12-week view (S, +19.3%) is intact and progress toward it is rising, with no exit warnings on the row. The position is still 1.9% under cost, so there is nothing to bank and nothing to cut; the right action is a tighter risk line under a strengthening trend. Nothing originates a sell (no Exit_Warning, not armed, conviction rising). Trail RAISED 4.61 -> 4.67 (printed stop). 14.1% of book. ADR-0020 clean. |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 25.01 | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | 28.13 | Still watching SGX, still not buying. The exchange operator's signal has now collapsed two sessions running - from a top-conviction buy last week to no signal at all - and the shares remain richly priced (margin of safety -1.8). Yesterday's decision to cancel the standing Sorder rather than leave it sitting looks right within one session. We re-engage only on a fresh pullback entry with genuine conviction behind it. Withdrawn GTC (08-14 @24.27) confirmed dead; conviction -> 0 across three sessions. Re-arm unchanged: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP print with raw conviction >= 74 (>= 65 after the standing -9 val_adj), sized off the live model entry per SGO-5. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
28 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.