Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 61.55 | SELL 100% CARRIED | 61.07 | 61.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 52.86 (-13.4%) | Carrying yesterday's full exit - it simply did not execute. Jardine Matheson is still trading below the risk line that triggered the sale (Sagainst a Sstop), and the 12-week model view fell again to 14.4% BELOW today's price - the thirteenth consecutive downgrade - with the shares 5.0% under their 200-day trend. The half-year results were actually good (underlying profit +9%, dividend raised 8%, a US buyback), but that news is over two weeks old and the market has sold it in twelve of the sessions since; the shares screen cheap on assets (MoS +0.40), and cheap is still not a reason to hold a broken trend. One silver lining from the delay: holding through today's close means the book now COLLECTS the USdividend it was going to forfeit. OPERATIONAL: this is a CARRY of the 2026-08-18 sell card (already ledgered with direction 'sell'), written here as direction 'none' so the scorer does not double-count one trade. Exit basis unchanged: fired full-exit clause + stop breach + negative 12wk (L2); book-note B covers today's softer AVOID label (AVOID-degraded-from-SELL-REDUCE + below-stop + neg-12wk is a valid exit). UNDERVALUED tier-down again OVERRIDDEN - amplify-only scales discretionary trims, not a signal-originated exit. PROFIT_ARMED is a false positive for a 9th session (Gain_ATR -1.43; degenerate T12_Progress 116.76 vs a target below cost). Action price repriced 61.72 -> ~61.07 for the USex-adjustment on the 08-20 ex-date; the dividend (~S) and the mark-down cancel, so realised stays -Son (cost 63.55), proceeds ~S1wk/4wk n/a - FailedBreakout_Down_20D prints no long leg. Trail 61.76 retires on exit. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.78 | SELL 30% CARRIED | 30.94 | 30.09 | n/a | n/a | 42.19 (+36.4%) | Carrying yesterday's one-third trim of a big winner - it did not execute. OCBC is up 8.1% for the book, trades 36% above its 200-day trend at RSI 70, and the signal engine has now been silent on it for two straight sessions ('consensus conflict + low conviction'). A stretched price plus a signal that has stopped speaking is when a profit is worth banking, and the FOMC minutes hit the Singapore bank complex tomorrow with a two-sided reaction. We keep because the 12-week view (S, +36.4%) is still very much alive - and the bank itself is in good shape, with the lowest bad-loan ratio of the three at 0.9% and its interim dividend up 15%, already collected. Being richly priced on book value (MoS -0.74) is not on its own a reason to sell. OPERATIONAL: CARRY of the 2026-08-18 sell card (already ledgered direction 'sell'); written direction 'none' to keep the scorer from double-counting. Re-tested today: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 3.26) + tick (d) two consecutive NO TRADE. NO ESCALATION - tick (b) does not re-fire, no 20-pt drop), (a) no second code, (c) 12wk wide open; exactly one tick -> profit_take_1 30%, still. MoS -0.74 not <= -3, no tier bump. Both NoTrade rows are GENUINE, not SGO-4 mechanical blanks (no liquidity-gate string, position columns intact). L8 reprice applied: the 08-19 open gapped -2.39% to 30.21 but recovered the lot and closed at the day's high 30.94, so the action price is repriced to 30.94 - the gap was noise. 30% x 1,500 = -lot floor =, SLadder 5,800 ->... ->. Realised +S (cost 28.63). 1wk/4wk n/a - NoTrade row prints no entry/stop/target. DCF annotation suppressed per SGO-3 (ResInc financial). Trail HOLDS 30.09; ADR-0020 clean (peak 30.22, -0.43%). · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 21.62 | SELL 30% CARRIED | 22.20 | 21.54 | 22.34 (+0.6%) | 23.24 (+4.7%) | 30.81 (+38.8%) | Carrying yesterday's small profit-take on the book's best trade - it did not execute. Great Eastern is up 21.5% on cost after a +35% month, sits 30% above its 200-day trend at an overbought RSI of 77, and has just gone ex-dividend. The results behind the run are genuinely strong - half-year net income S and the interim dividend raised to 35c, which the book collected today - so this is profit-taking on extension, not an exit: we sell 200 and keep 700, because the 12-week view (S, +38.8%) is the strongest forward number in the book. HONEST CAVEAT: on today's prints alone this trim fires ZERO deterioration ticks and would NOT be proposed fresh - conviction went, the 12wk is wide open, and there is only one NO TRADE print. It is carried on its 2026-08-18 origination (armed Gain_ATR 7.55 + conviction because the apparent recovery is mechanical, not real: RSI is 77.31 today against 77.31 yesterday, the entire -1.55% move is exactly the 35c ex-dividend, and the engine merely re-labelled a silent row as weak-bullish FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - a family L1 explicitly discounts. L3 says execute the de-risk rather than let it drift, and this is the smallest tier (30%, 200 of) on the biggest winner. OPERATIONAL: CARRY of the 08-18 sell card (already ledgered direction 'sell'); direction 'none' here to avoid scorer double-count. G1/G3 do not engage (G1 softens tick (a) only and needs a fresh BreakoutUp/MomentumContinuation at conviction >= 80; this is cv52). The 35c ex-div on 08-19 was the documented exception, correctly NOT treated as an L8 gap - predicted open ~22.20, actual 22.25, Sbanked on. MoS -0.66 not <= -3, no tier bump. 30% x 900 = 270 -> floor, SLadder 2,200 ->... ->. Realised +S (cost 18.27). Estimates use f = 0.138 (12 graded buys >= 10, so calib beats L5's 0.30). DCF blank -> annotation suppressed per SGO-3. Trail HOLDS 21.54 - today's printed 21.16 is LOWER and a trail never steps down; ADR-0020 clean (peak 21.89, -1.6% ex-div adjustment). · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.84 | HOLD | 76.00 | 75.31 | 76.36 (+0.5%) | 78.58 (+3.4%) | 93.47 (+23.0%) | Holding DBS, the book's largest position at 28.8% of assets. The signal has firmed back up after four sessions of fading (rating, the position is modestly profitable (+1.7%), and the 12-week view of Sis 23% above today's price - nothing here asks to be sold. The Fed's July minutes reach Singapore banks tomorrow with a genuinely two-sided reaction, so the discipline is to hold through the event on a raised risk line rather than trim into it. The bank looks expensive against book value, but that alone never triggers a sale. OPERATIONAL: trail HOLDS 75.31 - today's printed stop 75.16 is LOWER and a trail never steps down. NOT armed (Gain_ATR 1.01 < 3.0, T12_Progress 81.31% < 90), so the earlier conviction decay is a watch item, not an ADR-0012 fire. Catalyst-aware hold: FOMC minutes bank-leg reaction 08-20, high confidence, two-sided +-2.0% - hold and trail, do not pre-trim. Quality_Pass=False and the SDCF anchor are non-binding per SGO-3 (ResInc financial). 1wk uses f = 0.138. ADR-0020 clean (peak 75.31 = live). WATCH TRIGGER: if it arms (Gain_ATR >= 3.0) while conviction stays sub-50, it becomes a fire the next session. · news |
| S58 | SATS | 4.12 | HOLD | 4.77 | 4.71⚠ | 4.80 (+0.6%) | 4.97 (+4.2%) | 5.67 (+18.9%) | Holding SATS and raising its protective stop. This is the one position in the book that is genuinely getting stronger: the signal rating has climbed four sessions running ->, now the highest reading we hold, the small loss has narrowed from -3.3% to -1.7%, and the 12-week view of Sis 19% above today's price with no warning flags of any kind. Nothing originates a sale, so the right action is to keep the position and move the risk line up underneath it. OPERATIONAL: trail RAISED 4.67 -> 4.71 (today's printed stop is above the recorded trail). Not armed (Gain_ATR -0.80). T12_Progress 84.13% and rising. No Exit_Warning. 1wk uses f = 0.138. ADR-0020 clean (new peak). FAIR_VALUE with MoS -2.41 is the known SG banding miscalibration flagged in book-note B - read cautiously, it originates nothing either way. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
31 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.