Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S58 | SATS | 4.07 | SELL ALL | 4.07 | 4.71⚠ | n/a | n/a | 4.09 (+0.5%) | SATS gapped straight through its own stop and the 12-week case died with it, so we are taking the whole position off rather than hoping for a retest. The stock opened 20 Aug exactly at the 4.71 trail, fell to 4.06 and closed 4.12 on 33.9m shares - 8.2x normal volume - then failed to bounce (21 Aug close 4.07), leaving the position 13.6% below its risk line. The 12-week projection collapsed 5.67 -> 4.48 -> 4.09 in two sessions, so the model now sees just +0.5% of upside from here, and conviction went -> 0 with volatility more than doubling. Valuation is neutral on the exit (FAIR_VALUE, MoS -2.41 - no tier bump, no argue-down) and a bounded news search found no company catalyst explaining the drop, so the technical case stands alone and is decisive. Basis: decisive stop break + dead 12wk (L2). PROFIT_ARMED on this row is a FALSE POSITIVE (degenerate T12_Progress 99.51 on a -16.08% position, Gain_ATR -3.62) and is explicitly NOT the basis - this is not an ADR-0012 profit-take. Two consecutive genuine NO TRADE prints (Consensus conflict + low conviction, full position columns, not SGO-4 mechanical blanks). 1wk/4wk n/a - NO TRADE row prints no Entry/Stop/Target; the 4.97 objective from 08-19 is void after a -14.7% repricing. Realised -S (cost 4.85, -16.08%). Trail 4.71 retired; ADR-0020 not applicable (peak 4.71 = live 4.71, zero erosion - the price gapped through a working stop). NOTE: the executor has not run since 08-18, so a live stop-market would likely have filled near the 4.71 open on 08-20 - a Sscheduler cost, not a signal failure. · news |
| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 61.69 | SELL ALL | 61.69 | 61.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 53.18 (-13.8%) | Jardine Matheson has sat at or below its stop for nine straight sessions with a 12-week view stuck 13.8% below the current price, and a cheap valuation is not enough to keep holding a broken trend. The close of 61.69 is under the 61.76 trail, the price trades below every moving average and 4.0% under its 200-day line, and the model's 12-week projection of 53.18 has stabilised only after thirteen consecutive downgrades - flat at a loss, not recovering. The name screens UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.40), which would normally argue for trimming the minimum, but valuation can only soften a discretionary trim, not veto an exit that has already fired on trend. The August results were solid and three weeks old; the market has had them and sold them. Basis: fired full-exit clause + stop breach + negative 12wk (L2), carried and re-verified for a third session per book-note B (AVOID-degraded-from-SELL-REDUCE + below-stop + negative-12wk is a valid exit). Valuation tier-down OVERRIDDEN - amplify-only rules scale discretionary trims, not signal-originated exits with a breached stop. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for an eleventh session (degenerate T12_Progress 116.0 on a -2.93% position, Gain_ATR -1.68). 1wk/4wk n/a - FailedBreakout_Down_20D prints no Target_Price, no long leg to interpolate. USex-div CAPTURED on the 08-20 ex-date (~US) because the 08-19 exit never executed; realised -Son shares, ~-Snet of the dividend. Trail 61.76 retired; ADR-0020 clean (peak 61.76, 0% erosion). · news |
| G07 | Great Eastern | 20.91 | SELL ALL | 20.91 | 21.54⚠ | n/a | n/a | 28.93 (+38.4%) | Great Eastern has been the book's best trade and it is now unwinding a parabolic run, so we are banking the whole +14.5% rather than dribbling out another. The stock ran +34.9% in a month to an RSI of 82, then gave it back in four sessions - RSI, conviction - and on 20 Aug the engine itself printed SELL - WARNING as the book's top-ranked sell with an EMA10_BREAK exit warning. Today it closed 20.91, decisively through the 21.54 trail, near the session low on the heaviest volume of the move. The H1 results were genuinely good (net income S, dividend raised to 35c) and are not in dispute; the price simply went too far and is retracing. Escalated from the carried 200-sh trim: three things changed since 08-19 (trail broken -2.9%; the 08-20 evaluable SELL - WARNING at Sell_Rank 1 / 80.28 carrying Tier-2 EMA10_BREAK; RSI 81.9 -> 52.6 and four straight 12wk down-revisions). Full rather than the profit-take's 50% because the warning row's own portion was 80.28%, the trail is broken (CLAUDE.md §9 decisive-stop-break / EMA10_BREAK ladder, which G1-G3 do not cover), and the name is liquidity-gated so scaling out risks worse fills. Today's NO TRADE cv0 is a LIQUIDITY-GATE BLANK and is explicitly NOT part of the basis (SGO-4, fourth occurrence). Honest counter: 12wk 28.93 is +38.4%, the book's highest forward view, and this exit gives it up - overridden because G3 governs the valuation-elevate trim path only, not a stop-break exit. L3 drove the escalation: the trim was carried unexecuted from 08-17 while the name fell 22.74 -> 20.91 (-8.0%). 1wk/4wk n/a - liquidity-gated row prints no leg; the 23.24 objective from 08-19 is void. Realised +S (cost 18.27, +14.45%), +Swith the 35c dividend banked 08-19. Quality_Pass=False non-binding and DCF annotation suppressed per SGO-3 (insurer, FV=ResInc). Trail 21.54 retired; ADR-0020 clean (peak 21.89, -1.6%, an ex-div adjustment). · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.00 | HOLD | 76.00 | 75.43 | n/a | 78.26 (+3.0%) | 92.31 (+21.5%) | DBS is steady and nothing originates a sell, so we hold and simply lift the protective stop under it. Conviction has been flat at 53 for three sessions, the 12-week projection of 92.31 is a live +21.5%, there is no exit warning on the row, and the position is not far enough into profit to arm a profit-take. With a dense run of rate catalysts ahead we would rather let the trailing stop do the work than pre-trim into the events. Trail RAISED 75.31 -> 75.43 (today's printed stop is above the recorded trail, so it steps up). NOT armed (Gain_ATR 1.15 < 3.0, T12_Progress 82.33 < 90). Becomes the book's dominant position (62.3% of holdings) once the three exits clear. Catalyst-aware hold applies twice: SG July CPI 08-25 (med +-1.2%) and the 08-26 PCE/GDP bank leg (SGX 08-27, high +-2.0%) plus Jackson Hole - Warsh's first keynote as Fed chair 08-28 (SGX reaction 08-31, high +-2.5%, horizon stance hold-through). Hold and trail through them; do not pre-trim. Watch trigger: arms at Gain_ATR >= 3.0 with conviction sub-50. Quality_Pass=False non-binding and DCF annotation suppressed per SGO-3. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.68 | BUY-STOP | — | — | n/a | n/a | 10.49 | ST Engineering no longer qualifies for the anticipation slot on any measure, so no order is placed and the previous one stays cancelled. The signal engine has printed nothing actionable for three straight sessions, conviction is zero against a floor of 55, and on our valuation work it is the most expensive name in the book by a wide margin. The 08-18 buy-stop at 11.16 was withdrawn on 08-19 and never triggered - the price has since fallen to 10.68, so no capital was committed into a decline. Anticipate slot INELIGIBLE: fails the >=2-of-last-3 BUY - ANTICIPATE print test (0/3 - NO TRADE on 08-19, 08-20, 08-21) and the 55 conviction floor (0). Queue NOT rolled. Fresh valuation MoS -10.66 (val_adj -10). Re-arm on a fresh BUY - ANTICIPATE / PullbackBuy_VWAP with conviction >= 55, queued at the live model entry per SGO-5. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
31 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.