Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 75.56 | HOLD | 74.92 | 75.43 | n/a | 78.68 (+5.0%) | 90.92 (+21.4%) | Singapore's largest bank is holding a record run - 1H2026 net profit up 5% to S01bn, wealth assets through S$500bn and the quarterly payout lifted to S - and the trade signal agrees, printing a steady HOLD for a fourth straight session with a 12-week view still 20% above today's price. Nothing here argues for selling, so the position stays whole and the risk line simply moves up behind it. Operationally: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.76, T12_Progress 83.11), no Exit_Warning, no CLAUDE.md §9 origination. Trail HOLDS 75.43 - the printed 73.52 and the 2xATR chandelier 73.29 are both lower and a trail never steps down - but headroom is now only 0.17% (S) on 29.3% of the book, logged as systemic finding #1 (ratchet lacks a minimum-headroom floor). ADR-0020 clean (peak 75.43, 0% erosion). 12wk has down-ticked four sessions (93.47->90.92) - not yet ADR-0012 tick (c), which needs a fall under 77.07. Catalyst-aware hold through SG CPI 08-25, the US PCE bank leg priced 08-27, Warsh at Jackson Hole priced 08-31 (+-2.5%) and the MSCI QIR auction 08-31; do not pre-trim. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 30.92 | HOLD | 29.97 | 30.09 | n/a | 31.86 (+6.3%) | 41.07 (+37.0%) | OCBC is sitting on an 8% gain with record 1H profit of S2bn behind it and a 15% bigger interim dividend, and the signal has firmed back to a second consecutive HOLD after a brief flat patch. The position has run far enough to be flagged as a profit-taking candidate, but none of the four deterioration tests actually fires - momentum, the forward view and the signal are all still intact - so the right move is to lift the stop and let it run rather than bank it early. Operationally: PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 4.00) but ZERO ADR-0012 ticks for a second session - (a) no second Exit_Warning code; (b) conviction = -6, not the -20 collapse; (c) 12wk 41.07 vs the 31.54 dead-view line, alive at +32.8%; (d) the NO TRADE run broke on 08-21. Armed-but-not-fired = mandatory trail-raise, not a trim; the carried 400-sh trim stays withdrawn. Trail HOLDS 30.09 (printed 28.82 and chandelier 29.77 are both lower), 2.76% headroom. ADR-0020 clean (peak 30.41, -1.05%). RSI 68.1, elevated but easing and under the 75 line. Same catalyst ladder as D05 - hold through. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
34 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.