Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 25.40 | BUY — QUEUED @24.72 | 24.72 | 24.27 | 24.89 (+0.7%) | 25.93 (+4.9%) | 28.20 (+14.1%) | Singapore Exchange has just printed the strongest buy signal this book has seen since inception: a STRONG BUY at conviction 84 on a pullback-to-VWAP setup, ranked #1 in the book, with the trend pillar at 90 and the stock consolidating bullishly two-thirds of a percent under its 52-week high. The business is doing the same thing the chart is: SGX delivered its strongest-ever half-year in 1HFY2026 with net revenue up 7.6% to S, operating profit up 10.8%, securities daily traded value up 19.5%, and a committed quarterly dividend ladder through FY2028. We are buying the pullback rather than chasing the close, so this goes in as a good-till-cancelled limit at the model entry, roughly 2.7% below where the stock settled today. Operational nuance: this is the promotion of the 08-24 declined near-miss, and it clears the exact re-arm trigger this book wrote on 08-14 and restated every session since (fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP with RAW conviction >= 74; today 84). Fusion: 84 raw - 9 val_adj + 0 bias = 75 vs the 65 floor. The -9 is the known ResInc artifact (SGO-3 / systemic finding #3) that routes an asset-light exchange through a bank residual-income model; it is applied as written and still passes. Quality gate passes (Quality_Pass True). Size modulator 0.75x on MoS -1.84. Entry_Distance_ATR -1.86 forces the no-chase queue per L1/SGO-5 - limit at the LIVE model entry 24.72, never a deeper self-invented level; RSI 63.6 < 75 and entry < close so the SGO-5 suppression does not fire. DCF anchor annotation suppressed per SGO-3 (IsFinancial). Sizing: 0.9651 x Sbook x 20% buy_pct = Sx0.75 modulator = S, /24.72 = 11,680 -> on the 100-lot = S (14.4% of book). Stop 24.27 (-1.82%), R:R 2.7:1. Executes at the 08-26 open per L8; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Expires 2026-08-28 (3 sessions) if unfilled. Horizon: 08-26 NVDA read-through (+-1.8%), 08-28 MSCI SG futures expiry, 08-31 MSCI QIR closing auction - all hold-through. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.40 | HOLD | — | 75.43 | n/a | 78.75 | 91.75 | DBS remains the anchor of the book and there is nothing to do. The signal firmed today - conviction stepped up from after four flat sessions - the stock closed up 1.1% at S, it sits 25% above its 200-day average, and the 12-week view of Sis still 20% above the current price. The position is 2.3% ahead of cost with no exit warning of any kind, so we simply keep holding on the existing trailing stop. Operational nuance: not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 1.45 < 3.0; T12_Progress 83.27 < 90), no Exit_Warning code, so no ADR-0012 path is open and no CLAUDE.md §9 sell origination exists. Trail HOLDS at 75.43 - today's printed model stop 75.07 and the 2xATR chandelier 74.05 are both lower, and a trail never steps down. Yesterday's acute headroom problem (0.13/0.17%) is relieved by the +1.11% close: headroom is now S / 1.27%, though systemic finding #1 (no minimum-headroom floor on the ratchet) still stands as a code defect. ADR-0020 clean (peak 75.43 = live 75.43, 0% erosion). Valuation is non-binding on a held SG bank per SGO-3 (IsFinancial/ResInc; Quality_Pass False is the generic F-Score screen and is structurally inapplicable). Catalyst-aware hold through the 08-26 US PCE bank leg (+-2.0%), 08-27 US Q2 GDP, 08-28 Warsh Jackson Hole keynote (+-2.5%, widest band in the window) and the 08-31 MSCI QIR auction - do not pre-trim into any of them. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.49 | HOLD | — | 30.42 | n/a | 35.24 | 41.88 | OCBC broke out to a fresh 52-week high today, closing up 1.8% at Sand taking the position to +10.0% on cost. That is a winner working, not a winner to cut - the 12-week view of Sis still a third above the price and the trend reading is at the top of its range. The right response to a profitable name making new highs with no deterioration is to raise the protective stop and let it run, so the trailing stop goes up from Sto S. Operational nuance: PROFIT_ARMED for a fourth session (Gain_ATR 4.93 >= 3.0) and it fires ZERO of the four ADR-0012 deterioration ticks for a third consecutive session - (a) PROFIT_ARMED is the only code on the row, no second warning; (b) conviction is a 1-point drift, nowhere near the -20 collapse; (c) Target_12Week 41.88 vs the 1.02x31.49 = 32.12 dead-view line, alive at +33.0%; (d) third straight HOLD, no NO TRADE run. Armed but not fired = MANDATORY TRAIL-RAISE, NOT A TRIM. New trail 30.42 = today's printed model stop, above both the incumbent 30.09 and the 2xATR chandelier 30.33; headroom 3.40%. ADR-0020 clean (new peak 30.42, 0% erosion). WATCH: RSI 71.98, up from 68.08 and the highest reading of the run - still under the 75 extension line but the first thing to re-check tomorrow. Valuation non-binding per SGO-3. Catalyst-aware hold through the same 08-26 PCE / 08-28 Warsh / 08-31 MSCI ladder as D05. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
34 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.