Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 58.31 | SELL 50% | 58.31 | 56.74 | n/a | n/a | 46.03 (-21.1%) | We are selling half of Jardine Matheson because its trend has broken and has not repaired. The shares closed lower again at S, still under all four of the moving averages we track (20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day), and the model's three-month view sits about 21% lower at S; the stock screens as cheap on intrinsic value, which is why we cut half rather than all of it. Ops: supersedes the four unexecuted 09-08..09-11 J36 cards (withdrawn - they were written execution=market_open, which the auto-executor does not accept; S3). Tier held at 50% per W4 (card unfilled, basis unchanged); label softened STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71 x2 -> AVOID cv50 but the gate-immune trend exit (below EMA200 63.44 + negative 12wk) stands and the close made a lower low vs origination (T3 carry). PROFIT_ARMED is a false arm (R2/W5: 12wk 46.03 < cost 58.07). Printed Stop_Price 60.93 sits ABOVE the close - rejected (W6); stop held 56.74. Full exit only on a settled close below 56.74 (L2). · news |
| Z74 | Singtel | 4.46 | SELL 30% | 4.46 | 4.45 | n/a | n/a | 4.46 (+0.0%) | We are cutting 30% of Singtel because the position is now losing money and has closed below the risk line we set. The shares settled at S, under our Sline and 1.3% below our Scost, the model has gone back to 'no trade' on conflicting readings, and its three-month view is flat at S - no forward reason to keep full size. Ops: RE-BASED from a profit-take to a risk de-risk - the prior PROFIT_ARMED + tick (c) basis is void (W5/R2: Gain_ATR -0.80, 12wk 4.46 < cost 4.52). Tier held at 30% (W4), lot-rounded. Not a full exit: L2 needs a negative 12wk and it is flat (0.0%); close still above the 4.45 model stop the position was bought on (09-04 card). Residual 43,300 stop re-based 4.50 -> 4.45 per W10 (over-ratcheted watermark, price closed between); a settled close below 4.45 is the full-exit trigger. Supersedes the four unexecuted 09-08..09-11 Z74 cards (withdrawn, market_open). · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 77.66 | HOLD | 77.66 | 76.65 | 77.87 (+0.3%) | 79.34 (+2.2%) | 88.60 (+14.1%) | We are holding DBS in full: conviction strengthened from, the shares closed up at Sabove their 20-day average, and the three-month view is about 14% higher at S. With the US Fed deciding on 16-17 September we hold through the event rather than trade into it. Ops: W10 re-base - the 77.93 watermark sat above the engine's own stop for four sessions and produced a nightly breach alarm overridden every night; stop re-based to the live printed Stop_Price 76.65 (1.2x ATR headroom, ~U5's 1.25x floor 76.61). Exit trigger: settled close below 76.65 (also below EMA20 76.77). No add: HOLD label is not the buy pool and D05 is ~60% of NAV. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.85 | HOLD | 31.85 | 31.11 | 31.96 (+0.3%) | 32.74 (+2.8%) | 38.91 (+22.2%) | We are holding OCBC: it is up about 11% on cost, conviction rose from, and the three-month view is roughly 22% higher at S, so nothing argues for taking profit. Ops: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 7.24) with zero fire ticks -> trail path; chandelier 30.96 = printed stop 30.96, both below the 31.11 watermark, so the stop stays 31.11. Sub-scale rump (0.48% of NAV, V3) - no further ladder trims. Hold through FOMC 09-16. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
45 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.124 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.