Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z74 | Singtel | 4.42 | SELL ALL | 4.42 | 4.45⚠ | n/a | n/a | 4.33 (-2.0%) | We are closing the rest of the Singtel position: the shares settled at S, below our Srisk line, the model has said 'no trade' for a third straight session, and its three-month view has slipped again to S. A valuation article calling the stock cheap is not a trading catalyst. Ops: pre-committed 09-15 trigger (settled close <= 4.44 = full exit) fired; breach -0.67% / 0.43 ATR is W7-clean, not a float artefact. L2 met (decisive close below stop + negative 12wk, 4.46 -> 4.41 -> 4.33) on sustained GENUINE NoTrade ('Consensus conflict + low conviction', not mechanical, SGO-4 n/a) = CLAUDE.md s9 exit. PROFIT_ARMED is a false arm (W5/R2: Gain_ATR -1.43, 12wk < cost 4.52). 09-15 50% card filled @4.46 on 09-16. Residual exits 100% at market on the 09-17 open (post-FOMC); reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. · news |
| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 57.17 | HOLD | 57.17 | 56.74 | n/a | n/a | 44.11 (-22.8%) | We are holding the remaining small Jardine Matheson stake for now: half was sold at today's open at S, the shares closed higher at S, and they remain above our Sexit line, although the model's three-month view is still about 23% lower. Ops: AVOID cv60 FailedBreakout_Down_20D (adj 70 as a sell with the actionable +10 cell) - AVOID is not a dispose-pool label and the stop is intact (+0.34 ATR); the 50% basis was spent today (W4/R4) and the name up-closed (T3). Printed Stop_Price 59.71 is ABOVE the close - not adopted (W6). 3.5% of NAV, above the V3 rump floor. Trigger: settled close <= 56.75 -> SELL 100% () (OTR-1 at-stop on this family). · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.80 | HOLD | 76.80 | 76.65 | 77.04 (+0.3%) | 78.71 (+2.5%) | 85.86 (+11.8%) | We are holding DBS through the US Fed decision: it closed at S, just above our Sexit line, conviction has steadied at 52, and the model's three-month view is about 12% higher at S. Ops: HOLD label, not armed (Gain_ATR 0.67, T12 89.45). Printed stop 76.51 is lower - watermark 76.65 kept. U5 flag: 0.16 ATR headroom on ~60% of NAV. Exit trigger: settled close below 76.65. No add (HOLD label, cap). f=0.124 for the 1wk estimate. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.18 | HOLD | 31.18 | 31.11 | 31.44 (+0.8%) | 33.28 (+6.7%) | 36.87 (+18.2%) | We are holding the small OCBC position: it recovered to S, back above its Strailing stop, is up about 9% on cost, and the model's three-month view is roughly 18% higher. Ops: row evaluable again (HOLD cv62, no liquidity gate) - the 09-15 'second close below' trigger resets. Armed (Gain_ATR 4.78, genuine) but no tick fired: (a) none, (b) is a rise (prior 0 mechanical, Q4), (c) 12wk +18.3%, (d) none -> trail held at 31.11 (0.13 ATR headroom, no room to raise). V3 rump: hold-or-close. Trigger: settled close below 31.11 -> SELL 100% (). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
49 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.124 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.