SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - HOLD N2IU on a short leash
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.32 | HOLD | 1.33 | 1.30 | n/a | n/a | 1.33 (+0.0%) | The portfolio bought its first holding today. A resting order placed on 29 July for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust finally executed at Sas the shares eased back, ending twenty-one straight sessions in cash. We are keeping it, but on a short rope. The pullback that filled the order turned out to be a sector-wide slide rather than the healthy dip the setup was drawn for, and the buy signal that justified the trade has since faded to nothing. What keeps us in is that nothing has actually broken: the price is still above our protective floor, the twelve-week outlook is not negative, and the most we can lose from here is about a fifth of one percent of the portfolio. We have also adjusted the floor for a dividend: the trust pays 2 cents on 6 August, which will knock the quoted price down by roughly that much for purely mechanical reasons, and we do not want to be shaken out by a payment we are receiving. OPERATIONAL: FILL RECONCILE - txn sgreit-20260803-0001, BUY 145,100 @ 1.33 = Ssource auto_executor, 18:00:27 SGT; cash. Close 1.32 -> unrealised -S / -0.75%; MV S = 9.58% of book. SCAN/EXECUTOR RACE: scan wrote 18:00:15, fill 18:00:27, so the anchor row prints Held N / FLAT with blank Avg_Cost / Gain_ATR / T12_Progress_Pct - position arithmetic done by hand from the txn record (ADR-0012 fallback). NO SELL ORIGINATION FIRES: (1) signal-based - no SELL label, Exit_Warning blank, NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'; L2 fails BOTH legs (close 1.32 > stop 1.30 AND Target_12Week 1.33 >= close 1.32); REIT-2 requires a DECISIVE stop-break and -0.75% at 0.68 ATR above the stop is not decisive; the two NO TRADE prints PREDATE the fill so tonight is print #1 against a held position. (2) ADR-0020 Trail Erosion - day one, Peak Stop 1.30 == live stop, 0% erosion vs a 15% threshold. (3) Valuation - MoS_FV -9.82 / QP False is the known-broken REIT EPV screen (SGR-1) and SS9/REIT-2 bar it from originating; no signal-based sell exists for it to amplify. STOP 1.300 = printed Stop_Price, 1.14x ATR below the fill, -2.26%; defined risk 145,100 x 0.03 = S = 0.22% of book. FIRST numeric stop this book has ever recorded - clears the monitor's standing no_stop warning. EX-DIV ADJUSTMENT: stop -> 1.280 effective 2026-08-06 (MPACT Sex-date 08-06 = 1.52% of close, would mechanically put the price on 1.30 and fake a breach); Sdistribution accrues to the position; recorded in _state.json as stop_after_exdiv. FORWARD VIEW IS THE WEAK PART: Target_12Week 1.33 = cost exactly (+0.76% vs close, 0.0% vs fill) = ADR-0012 tick (c) dead-view, but the position is NOT PROFIT_ARMED (at a loss), so no profit-take fires. Signal trail SB 96 -> BUY 70 -> NT 0 -> NT 0; tonight is the weakest print of the four: Pillar_Consensus Indeterminate, all three pillars Neutral_True, RSI 49.07 (from 64.91), VWAP_Distance -0.80% (first negative of the window). CONTROL FAILURE FLAGGED (systemic finding 1): the order's own auto-withdraw clause (conviction < 65 at any subsequent EOD) was MET at the 07-31 close but never executed, because the 07-31 EOD was a retroactive backfill written 08-02 that processed proposals, not the live queued_orders control surface. EXIT TRIGGER (full exit, not a trim, on a 9.6% single-name position): (a) decisive CLOSE below 1.300 (1.280 from 08-06); (b) a THIRD consecutive NO TRADE/Conflicted print WHILE HELD (08-04 and 08-05 both) TOGETHER WITH Target_12Week falling below the close; (c) any SELL - REDUCE / STRONG SELL - REDUCE label. ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward 1.33. Horizon: 08-11 reopen gap and 08-12 CPI S-REIT leg both tighten-trail inside nine sessions. · news |
| — | Virtual seed (SGD) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | This portfolio stopped being all-cash today: a resting order from 29 July executed, putting just under a tenth of the money into Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust and leaving S in reserve. We are adding nothing further. Not one of the eight Singapore property trusts we follow is giving a buy signal tonight - the highest reading in the whole list sits well under our threshold, and seven of the eight have no signal at all after the sector gave back last week's rally. The reserve is deliberate rather than idle: Singapore's market is shut for the National Day holiday on 10 August and reopens on the 11th having to absorb two US trading sessions and a US jobs report in a single price, with US inflation data hitting the property-trust sector the day after. We would rather have cash on that morning than a full book. OPERATIONAL: S (90.35%) post-fill, down from SBook 9.58% invested at market (N2IU S) vs max_position_pct 60%. Buys S / sells Stonight. BUY POOL EMPTY: no row carries a bullish actionable label (STRONG BUY / STRONG BUY - ADD / BUY / BUY - ADD); slate is C38U NT 0, N2IU NT 0, BUOU NT 0, J69U NT 0, M44U NT 0, A17U NT 0, ME8U WATCH 52, HMN AVOID 34 - highest conviction in the book is 52, thirteen points below the floor. Five of eight print NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' verbatim; Pillar_Consensus is Conflicted or Indeterminate on six of eight. ANTICIPATE slot NOT FILLED - no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in the last three snapshots. Scorecard as_of 08-03: entries 49, graded 2, pending 0, calib_1w null -> f=0.30 mandatory (L5); cells MomentumContinuation_Up|buy n=1 and (NEW) PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=1, both report-only below the n>=5 floor; all biases 0. Counterfactuals optional_trim n=23, median withheld 1wk +0.44%, 4wk +2.33% (down from +4.58% on 07-29 as the window matured) - advisory, sign-convention audit still outstanding. Overlay WEEK 2026-07-05 is 29 days stale -> down-weighted to near-zero. Horizon sg_horizon.json regenerated TODAY 07:24 (fresh for the first time in weeks): 08-11 SGX reopen tighten-trail, 08-12 US CPI S-REIT leg tighten-trail +/-3% = widest aggregate book exposure of the window. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.