SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - HOLD N2IU, exit trigger now HALF-ARMED
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.31 | HOLD | 1.33 | 1.30 | n/a | n/a | 1.30 (-2.3%) | We are keeping our only holding, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, for a second session, and the reason is a cash calculation rather than a change of heart. The shares are 1.5% below what we paid and the buy signal that justified the trade is long gone - but the trust goes ex-dividend in two days, paying us Swhich is almost exactly the size of the loss we are sitting on. Selling any part of it now would hand back that distribution to avoid a much smaller amount of downside, because our protective floor sits less than 1% below the current price. The floor, not a partial sale, is the right tool here, and it will settle this within days either way. What has got worse is the model's three-month view, which has slipped from break-even to slightly below today's price - so the rope is now one step shorter, not longer. OPERATIONAL: @ 1.33, close 1.31, MV Sunrealised -S (-1.50%), 9.52% of book. Stop 1.300 -> 1.280 effective 2026-08-06 (MPACT Sex-div, 1.53% of close; MONITOR MUST NOT FLAG THE 08-06 GAP AS A BREACH). Close sits 0.34 ATR above stop; risk-to-stop from market S = 0.07% of book (from cost S = 0.22%). PROFIT_ARMED PRINTED AND IS A FALSE POSITIVE - the ADR-0012 T12 arming leg is Close >= 0.90 x Target_12Week (exit_warnings.py:268) and the column is Close/Target_12Week (scan.py:567), i.e. price-vs-target, NOT profit-progress; with T12 1.30 BELOW the 1.33 cost it fires trivially at 1.31/1.30 = 100.77% on a LOSING position (Gain_ATR -0.67, -1.50%). CLAUDE.md §9 defines armed as profit-progress, so the precondition is NOT met and no profit-take is generated; the armed-but-not-fired trail-raise is ALSO declined because raising the stop toward a 1.31 close two sessions before a 1.5% ex-div gap would manufacture the exact mechanical stop-out the 08-06 adjustment exists to prevent. Trim arithmetic stated: 30% = would forfeit Sof distribution to avoid Sof stop-defined risk = 2:1 against. Logged as systemic finding 3. No sell origination fires: no SELL label; L2 fails the stop-break leg (close 1.31 above 1.30 stop) though its 12wk leg NOW PASSES (T12 1.30 < close 1.31); REIT-2 requires a DECISIVE close below stop; N-consecutive-NO-TRADE is at print #1 while held; ADR-0020 trail erosion 0% (peak stop 1.30 == live stop 1.30); valuation barred from originating. EXIT TRIGGER (full exit, HALF-ARMED as of tonight - the Target_12Week < close leg is MET): (a) decisive CLOSE below 1.300 / 1.280 from 08-06; (b) a NO TRADE/Conflicted print on 08-05, which completes the two-print leg; (c) any SELL - REDUCE / STRONG SELL - REDUCE label. ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward 1.33. Horizon: 08-11 reopen gap and 08-12 CPI S-REIT leg are both tighten-trail. · news |
| — | Virtual seed (SGD) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | We are committing no new money tonight and keeping S - just over 90% of the portfolio - in reserve. Only one of the eight Singapore property trusts we follow gave a buy signal, and it appeared in a single session out of nowhere, which is the pattern this portfolio has repeatedly been right to ignore. The name we would most like to own is showing its best setup in weeks but is not yet convincing enough to buy. Meanwhile the sector backdrop remains mixed: financing costs are easing, but Singapore property trusts underperformed the broad market through the first half of the year, and rising oil and inflation are a live risk to the group. The reserve is deliberate. Singapore's market is closed for the National Day holiday and reopens on 11 August having to absorb a US jobs report and two US trading sessions in one print, with US inflation data the day after - both flagged as events to tighten into, not to buy into. OPERATIONAL: S (90.48%) from the CASH row; book S = cash + N2IU S (9.52% invested vs a 60% max_position_pct), -0.15% vs the S seed. Buys need S; sells free S; trivially. Verdict NO ACTION both sides. Overlay WEEK 2026-07-05 is 30 days stale -> down-weighted to near-zero, recorded not applied. Horizon (sg fallback, 1 day old): 08-07 US payrolls hold-through, 08-11 SGX reopen tighten-trail, 08-12 CICT 1H queue-below, 08-12 US CPI S-REIT leg tighten-trail. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.