SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - HOLD N2IU; C38U STRONG BUY 82 declined on SGR-3, one confirming print from an acquire
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.33 | HOLD | 1.33 | 1.30 | n/a | n/a | 1.32 (-0.8%) | We are holding our only position, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, and tonight the case for doing so is far stronger than it was two days ago. The shares have recovered to exactly what we paid, the trust pays us a Sdistribution tomorrow worth S - a 1.5% return on a position sitting at breakeven - and the price now sits comfortably above our protective floor rather than pressing against it. The signal has also come back to life: the model rated the trust as untradeable for three straight sessions and tonight scores it a solid hold. The conditional exit we set last night required one more weak reading today to trigger a full sale; today's reading was not weak, so that exit has lapsed rather than fired, and we start the count again from zero. OPERATIONAL: the exit trigger from EOD 2026-08-04 is BROKEN - the print leg reset to 0 after tonight's HOLD 62 on a scored signal; re-armed from scratch: (a) decisive close below 1.300, below 1.280 from 08-06; (b) TWO consecutive NO TRADE/Conflicted prints while held with Target_12Week below close (count now 0, needs 08-06 AND 08-07); (c) any SELL-REDUCE / STRONG SELL-REDUCE label. PROFIT_ARMED printed for the 2nd consecutive session and is again a FALSE POSITIVE, overridden by hand: the ADR-0012 T12 arming leg is Close >= 0.90 x Target_12Week (exit_warnings.py:268) and T12_Progress_Pct is Close/Target_12Week x 100 (scan.py:567) - price-vs-target, NOT profit-progress. With Target_12Week 1.32 BELOW the 1.33 cost it fires trivially at 1.33/1.32 = 100.76% on a position at EXACTLY 0.00% with Gain_ATR 0.00. CLAUDE.md 9 defines armed as profit-progress, so the precondition is NOT met: no profit-take trim, and the armed-but-not-fired trail-raise is ALSO declined - raising the stop toward a 1.33 close on the eve of a mechanical 1.5% ex-div gap would manufacture the fake stop-out the 08-06 adjustment exists to prevent. Systemic finding 1. OTHER CLASSES ALL FAIL: no SELL label; L2 fails the stop-break leg (close 1.33 is 1.08 ATR ABOVE the 1.30 stop, widest cushion yet) though its 12wk leg passes (1.32 < 1.33); REIT-2 requires a decisive close below stop; REIT-1 n/a (no FailedBreakout_Down, no RallySell); ADR-0020 trail erosion 0% (peak_stop 1.30 == live stop 1.30, no size reduction owed, class default-off for this book); valuation barred from originating (9/REIT-2) and MoS_FV -0.28 is the LEAST bearish reading N2IU has carried here. STOP: operative 1.300 through 08-05, 1.280 from 2026-08-06 (ex-div S = 1.50% of close, CONFIRMED by news search). peak_stop STAYS 1.30 - the ex-div step is a mechanical correction and must NOT re-base the ADR-0020 watermark. MONITOR MUST NOT FLAG THE 08-06 EX-DIV GAP AS A BREACH. The scan printed Stop_Price 1.27 tonight - 3 cents LOOSER than the record - NOT ADOPTED, recorded as systemic finding 3. ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward 1.33. Horizon: 08-11 SGX reopen gap and 08-12 CPI S-REIT leg both tighten-trail; 08-12 CICT 1H reads through. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.24 | WATCH | 2.24 | 2.24 | n/a | n/a | 2.11 (-5.8%) | Frasers Centrepoint Trust remains the weakest name on our list - the model's bearish reading strengthened again tonight and it projects the shares almost 6% lower over three months. We own none of it, so there is nothing to do, but it is a standing reason to stay patient about adding property-trust exposure generally while one of the sector's bellwethers is still deteriorating. OPERATIONAL: AVOID, conviction (rising bearish conviction), FailedBreakout_Down_20D = REIT-1's RELIABLE sell family (qualitative rule stands; the +2 mirror-era bias number is RETIRED, section C is report-only). Close 2.24, Target_12Week 2.11 = -5.8%. Unheld -> no-op, long-only. Val_Signal NA (no EPV/DCF computable), F_Score 1 - the worst quality read in the book. · news |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.87 | WATCH | 0.87 | 0.88 | n/a | n/a | 0.81 (-6.9%) | CapitaLand Ascott Trust made another new low tonight and the model projects it more than 6% lower over three months, but we own none of it and the bearish pattern behind the reading is one our records show reverses about four times in five. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: AVOID, conviction FELL - the bearish reading is weakening even as the price makes a fresh window low at 0.865. RallySell_BearTrend: REIT-1 says NEVER act on that label alone (~80% reversal); the -6 mirror-era bias is RETIRED, section C report-only. Target_12Week 0.81 = -6.4%. Unheld -> no-op, long-only. MoS_FV -0.82 / Quality_Pass True, nulled by SGR-1. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.