SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - buy pool EMPTY (zero bullish actionable labels across all 8 names); HOLD N2IU on stop 1.280 with trigger (B) newly armed at close # below EMA200
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.29 | HOLD | 1.29 | 1.28 | n/a | n/a | 1.27 (-1.6%) | We are holding our only position, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, and the first thing to say is that today's apparent 3% fall is mostly not a fall at all. The trust paid us a Sdistribution today - worth S - and the share price drops by the payout automatically when that happens. Strip that out and the position is down 1.5%, not 3%, and the alarm our monitor raised about the price breaking its protective floor is a false alarm: we lowered that floor to Stwo days ago precisely because we knew the payout was coming, and the shares closed above it. What is genuinely new is that the price has slipped below its long-term average for the first time since we bought, and the model's own three-month view now sits slightly below today's price. That is a warning, not a verdict - it is one day, it happened on the payout day, and the model is not signalling a sale. Our remaining downside to the floor is Sor seven hundredths of one percent of the book, so waiting one more session costs almost nothing. We have written down in advance exactly what would make us sell half. OPERATIONAL: STOP 1.280 operative from today (pre-committed 08-04 as stop_after_exdiv, re-confirmed 08-05); peak_stop STAYS 1.30 - the step is a mechanical ex-div correction and must NOT re-base the ADR-0020 watermark. Monitor flagged a 0.77% breach against the STALE 1.300 - FALSE FLAG, systemic finding 2. Close 1.29 = 0.36 ATR above the operative stop; intraday LOW touched 1.28 exactly but L4 makes the settled close authoritative. SELL CLASSES ALL FAIL: L2 stop leg fails (close above 1.280), 12wk leg passes (T12 1.27 < 1.29); trend-exit clause has BOTH legs technically true - close 1.29 < EMA200 1.29937 (first break since entry, real not ex-div artifact: both on the post-adjustment scale) AND negative 12wk - but at 0.34 ATR on day 1 of the ex-div session it is NOT DECISIVE per REIT-2; REIT-1 n/a (no FailedBreakout_Down, no RallySell, no SELL label); ADR-0020 erosion 1.54% and mechanical, class default-off; valuation barred from originating (CLAUDE.md 9 / REIT-2) and MoS -0.28 is the least bearish reading N2IU has carried here. PROFIT_ARMED printed for the THIRD consecutive session and is again a FALSE POSITIVE, overridden by hand: Gain_ATR -1.43, position -1.50%, T12 1.27 BELOW the 1.33 cost so the Close >= 0.90 x Target_12Week leg fires trivially at T12_Progress 101.57% on a LOSING position; ticks (b) and (c) 1.27 < 1.02x1.29 both fire arithmetically, so a literal ADR-0012 read would mandate a 50% profit-take on a position never in profit - precondition not met, NO TRIM, systemic finding 1. The armed-but-not-fired TRAIL-RAISE IS DECLINED on new grounds now that the ex-div has passed: the arm is void (no profit to protect) and 1.280 is already 0.36 ATR from spot, tighter than a 2.0xATR chandelier. PRE-COMMITTED TRIGGERS, re-armed tonight: (A) settled close below 1.280 -> TRIM 50% at next open, completes L2; (B) NEW - a SECOND consecutive settled close below EMA200 (~1.299) with Target_12Week still below close -> TRIM 50% at next open, stop break or not (tonight is close #, and this is the leg most likely to fire first); (C) any SELL-REDUCE / STRONG SELL-REDUCE label -> act on the label. Tick (d) print leg = (08-05 HOLD 62 reset it; needs 08-07) and on a void arm cannot fire alone. is corporate-action-blind - scan Unreal_PnL_Pct -3.01% vs true total return -1.50%, systemic finding 3. Horizon: 08-07 US payrolls after the SG close, SG reaction deferred to 08-11 by the National Day holiday; 08-11 SGX reopen gap absorbs payrolls plus two US sessions (gap-through-stop risk ~S-4k beyond the defined Saccepted); 08-12 CICT 1H reads through; 08-12 CPI S-REIT leg. ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward 1.29. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.22 | WATCH | 2.22 | 2.26 | n/a | n/a | 2.07 (-6.8%) | No action on Frasers Centrepoint Trust - we do not own it and the model rates it bearish, with a three-month view some 7% below today's price. This book is long-only, so a bearish read on a name we do not hold simply means we stay away. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID 50, long-only no-op. Signal flipped FailedBreakout_Down_20D -> RallySell_BearTrend, which REIT-1 marks as the least trustworthy label in this book - moot on a flat position. Valuation NA. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.87 | WATCH | 0.87 | 0.87 | n/a | n/a | 0.82 (-5.7%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascott Trust - we do not own it and the model is firmly bearish, seeing the units roughly 6% lower over three months. Worth noting that this is the strongest signal of any kind anywhere in the book tonight, and it points down; that is a fair summary of where this sector's momentum currently sits. Long-only, so nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID conviction 78 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D - the family REIT-1 marks as RELIABLE (unlike RallySell), and the highest-conviction print in the book. Long-only no-op. Valuation nulled per SGR-1 (MoS -0.82, QP True). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.