SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - TRIM N2IU 50% ( @ ~1.28) at the 08-11 open on the fired trend-exit clause; buy side NO ACTION (only C38U printed a bullish label, adj 60 vs the 65 floor, and SGR-3 blocks it independently)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | SELL 50% | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.28 (+0.0%) | 1.28 (+0.0%) | 1.24 (-3.1%) | We are halving our position in Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust. Two sessions ago we wrote down, in advance, exactly what would make us cut: a second consecutive close beneath the units' long-term trend line while the model's three-month view stayed below the current price. Both conditions are now met, the price has come back to the Sline we set as our floor, and the model has flipped from no opinion to an outright bearish read. There is no bad news at the trust itself - the recent fall is mostly the 2-cent distribution we were paid on 6 August, plus a rate-sensitive sector drifting - but a stated risk line that keeps being tested is a line to respect, not to argue with. We take half off, bank the distribution, and keep the other half with a tighter floor so the position still participates if the sector turns. OPERATIONAL: pre-committed trigger (B) from EOD 2026-08-06 FIRES - close 1.28 < EMA200 1.29918 for a 2nd consecutive settled session (08-06: 1.29 < 1.29937), Target_12Week 1.24 < close 1.28 (-3.13%). Trigger (A) is at the line: settled close 1.28 == operative stop 1.280 (intraday low 1.27 traded through). L2 satisfied on the combined basis; L3 says execute promptly, so this is a card, not prose. REIT-1 honoured: the trim is NOT originated by the RallySell_BearTrend label (REIT-1 distrusts it) - it is originated by the trend-exit clause + stop line; the bearish label only corroborates (Pillar_Consensus Consolidation_Bearish, all three pillars Neutral_Bearish_Context). ADR-0012 PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the 4th consecutive session (Gain_ATR -1.76, total return -2.26% incl. the Sdistribution) and is NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. Valuation barred from originating (CLAUDE.md 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1); MoS_FV -0.28 is too shallow to amplify a tier (needs <= -3), so the portion stays 50%, not 100%.,100 x 50% = 72,550 -> rounded to the SG 100-share board lot =, 49.97%. Gross proceeds ~SExecutes at the 2026-08-11 open (SGX closed Mon 08-10, National Day) - the reopen gap absorbs 08-07 US payrolls plus two US sessions, which is precisely the horizon's tighten-trail session; reprice if the open gaps >1.5% from 1.28. RESIDUAL carries a NEW stop at S (1.0x ATR below close, beneath today's 1.27 low); a settled close below 1.25 exits the remainder. peak_stop 1.30 - the ADR-0020 watermark is moot now that size has actually been reduced. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.21 | WATCH | 2.21 | 2.24 | n/a | 2.22 (+0.5%) | 2.04 (-7.7%) | No action on Frasers Centrepoint Trust - we do not own it, the model is bearish, and its three-month view sits about 8% below today's price. It is also the weakest chart in the book, with momentum at its lowest reading in months. Long-only, so we simply stay away. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID 49, RSI 36.1 (lowest in the book), Target_12Week 2.04 vs close 2.21 (-7.7%). RallySell_BearTrend is the REIT-1-distrusted label but it is moot on a flat position. Valuation NA. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.89 | n/a | 0.79 (-8.1%) | 0.80 (-7.0%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascott Trust - unowned, and the model now reads it as an active breakdown with a three-month view some 7% lower. Notably this is the fair-value screen's only 'bargain' in the entire book, and the price action disagrees emphatically - a useful reminder of why we do not buy on cheapness alone. Long-only, so nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID 47, signal degraded FailedBreakout_Down_20D (78) -> BreakdownDown_20D (47), new lows, Target_12Week 0.80 vs close 0.86 (-7.0%). The book's only fairvalue Bargain-adjacent name (QP True, F-Score 7) remains never-actionable - standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.