SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.28) at the 08-12 open after the 08-07 card went unexecuted on an executor outage; buy side NO ACTION (C38U cleared the floor at adj 73 and passed SGR-2 for the first time, but is blocked by SGR-3, L1 chase-entry, and its own 08-12 results print)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | SELL 50% | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.28 (+0.0%) | 1.27 (-0.8%) | 1.23 (-3.9%) | We are selling half our Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust holding at about S. The trust has now closed below its long-term 200-day trend line for a third straight session and the model's three-month view has slipped further below today's price, to S - the two conditions we wrote down in advance as our signal to take size off. There is no bad news here: the Sdistribution was earned on 6 August and the underlying portfolio of 18 Asian commercial properties is unchanged. This is rate-sensitivity and post-dividend drift, not a broken business, which is why we are halving rather than exiting. The remaining half stays on a tighter Sstop, and we would buy back on a genuine pullback signal. Selling ahead of tomorrow's CapitaLand Integrated results and US inflation print means we carry less risk into the sector's two biggest scheduled events of the month. OPERATIONAL: RE-ISSUE of the unexecuted 08-07 card (L3). Origination = pre-committed trend-exit trigger (B), 3rd consecutive settled close below EMA200 (1.28 vs 1.29929, -1.49%, 0.72 ATR) with Target_12Week 1.23 < close (-3.91%, deteriorated from -3.13%). Trigger (A) at the line for a 2nd session (close 1.28 = operative 1.280 stop, low 1.27 through it); L4 keeps the close authoritative so (A) is touched-not-broken, but (B) does not need it. L2 complete. REIT-1 HONOURED: tonight's RallySell_BearTrend label (conv 41, Consolidation_Bearish, Trend 38 / Mom 33 / Vol 34) is CORROBORATION ONLY, never the origination. ADR-0012 PROFIT_ARMED IS A FALSE POSITIVE, 6th consecutive session, explicitly NOT the basis: Gain_ATR -1.87, total return -2.26%; T12_Progress_Pct 104.07% fires only because Target_12Week (1.23) sits below the 1.33 cost and keeps falling - systemic finding 1. VALUATION barred from originating (CLAUDE.md 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1); MoS_FV -0.28 recorded not applied, and far too shallow to bump a tier (needs <= -3), so size_mod stays 1.0x. Why 50% not 100%: pre-commitment specified 50%; no full-exit basis (no stable SELL-REDUCE, no EMA10_BREAK ladder, no decisive multi-session breach). ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 1.54%, class default-off, and size is finally being cut). SIZING: 145,100 x 50% = 72,550 -> SG 100-share board lot -> 72,500 (49.97%), ~Sgross; realized -Sor -Snet of the Sdistribution on those units. RESIDUAL, new stop S, defined risk S = 0.11% of book. ESTIMATES f=0.30 mandatory (L5, calib_1w -0.043 degenerate); 12wk 1.23 vs DCF 1.020 = exceeds DCF anchor, annotated not applied (SGR-1). Est band 1.2544-1.3359. RESIDUAL TRIGGERS: (A') settled close < 1.25 -> exit remaining 72,600 at next open; (B') any SELL-REDUCE / STRONG SELL-REDUCE label -> act on the label; (C') settled close back above EMA200 (~1.299) with Target_12Week >= close -> trend-exit clause void, revert to HOLD and re-arm the add-back. ADD-BACK RE-ARM: fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward level. CATALYST: 08-12 CICT 1H 2026 (direct read-across to VivoCity retail + office) and 08-12 US July CPI S-REIT leg, SG reaction deferred to 08-13. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.23 | WATCH | 2.23 | 2.23 | n/a | n/a | 2.06 (-7.6%) | No action on Frasers Centrepoint Trust - we do not own it and the model has turned sharply bearish, with a three-month view about 8% below today's price. Worth noting as context: this is the bearish pattern our records show is the most reliable in Singapore REITs, and it is firing hard on the same night another REIT looks strong. That argues the sector is splitting, not rallying together. Long-only, so we stay away. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID with conviction on FailedBreakout_Down_20D - REIT-1's TRUSTED sell family - Target_12Week 2.06 vs close 2.23 (-7.6%). Moot on a flat position, but it is the counterweight to reading tonight's C38U strength as sector-wide. Valuation NA. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.89 | n/a | 0.80 (-7.0%) | 0.79 (-8.1%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascott Trust - unowned, breaking to new lows, with a three-month view some 8% lower. It remains the one name our valuation screen calls high quality, and the price action has disagreed emphatically for weeks - a standing reminder of why we do not buy on cheapness alone in this book. OPERATIONAL: unheld, AVOID 48, BreakdownDown_20D at new lows, Target_12Week 0.79 vs close 0.86 (-8.1%). QP True / F-Score 7 and never actionable - standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.