SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.28) at the 08-13 open for the THIRD time after two consecutive executor outages dropped the 08-07 and 08-11 cards; buy side NO ACTION - nothing cleared the 65 floor, C38U came back in the L1-favoured PullbackBuy_VWAP shape with a real limit below the close and a positive 12wk (2.61 vs 2.49) but conviction fell, five short
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | SELL 50% | 1.28 | 1.25 | n/a | n/a | 1.22 (-4.7%) | Cutting half of Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust. The trust has now closed below its 200-day trend line for a fourth straight session and the model's own three-month view keeps sliding - 1.24, then 1.23, now 1.22 against a 1.28 price - so the market is paying more than the forward case supports while the position sits 3.8% under cost. The 2c distribution earned on 6 August softens that to -2.3% in total-return terms, and the business itself is unchanged: 15 commercial properties across five Asian gateway markets, no adverse news, nothing broken. This is rate-sensitivity and a fading trend, not a thesis failure - which is why it is a half sale and not an exit, with the remaining half kept on a tighter line. OPERATIONAL: pre-committed trigger (B) from 2026-08-06 fires a third time - close 1.28 vs EMA200 1.29910 (-1.49%, 0.65 ATR), fourth consecutive session, with Target_12Week 1.22 below close and deteriorating. Trigger (A) at the line a third session (close 1.28 == operative 1.280 stop; intraday low 1.26 = a new lower low, L4 keeps the settled close authoritative). Completes L2. THIRD ISSUE OF THE SAME CARD: the 08-07 card (execute_on 08-11) and the 08-11 re-issue (execute_on 08-12) BOTH passed unfilled - sgreit_executor_state.json last_run_date 2026-08-03, six trading days stale; both opens printed 1.29, ~Scumulative forgone. Mechanical L3 failure, systemic finding 2 (CRITICAL, second consecutive). Not escalated to a full exit: residual trigger (A') (settled close < 1.25) has not fired. Anchor row is NO TRADE with NoTrade_Reason "Liquidity gate failed" at 14.34M units - quoted, not treated as information (systemic finding 3); it blanks Entry/Stop/Target, so the action reference is the settled close 1.28 on a MARKET-ON-OPEN order (no stale limit carried) and the 1wk/4wk estimates render n/a rather than being synthesised. REIT-1 does not bind - tonight's label is NO TRADE, not RallySell. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the 7th consecutive session (Gain_ATR -1.70) and is NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. Valuation barred from originating (section 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1); refreshed MoS_FV -0.25 recorded, not applied, and too shallow to bump a tier. ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 1.54%, class off). Gross ~S; realized -Sor -Snet of the Sdistribution attributable. Residual -> new stop 1.25, defined risk S = 0.11% of book. Reprice if the 08-13 open gaps >1.5% from 1.28 (outside 1.261-1.299) - the deferred US CPI S-REIT reaction (band +-3.0%, stance tighten-trail) lands on exactly that open. RESIDUAL TRIGGERS: (A') settled close < 1.25 -> exit the remaining 72,600 at the next open; (B') any SELL-REDUCE label -> act on it; (C') a settled close back above EMA200 (~1.299) with Target_12Week >= close -> clause void, revert to HOLD and re-arm the add-back (a gap-up open alone does not void it). ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price. · news |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.83 | No action on Mapletree Industrial Trust - we do not own it and the model has stopped producing a tradable read on it altogether, with a three-month view about 4% below the current price. Nothing to do until it shows a coherent trend again. OPERATIONAL: collapsed, NoTrade_Reason "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; fifth whipsaw of the fortnight, live vindication of SGR-3. SGR-2 fails independently (Target_12Week 1.83 < close 1.91, -4.2%, deteriorating from -3.65%). RSI 47.2 has lost the midline. Valuation nulled per SGR-1. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.49 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 2.37 | No action on CapitaLand Ascendas REIT - unowned, no tradable signal for a third session, and a three-month view roughly 5% below today's price. It goes ex-distribution tomorrow for 7.482 cents, which will mark the quoted price down about 3% mechanically; that drop is bookkeeping, not deterioration, and should not be read as a new signal. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0 third consecutive session (Consensus conflict + low conviction); Target_12Week 2.37 vs close 2.49 (-4.8%, deteriorating from -3.6%). 08-13 ex-distribution 7.482c confirmed, horizon band -3.0%/-2.4%, stance hold-through - do NOT let the mechanical mark-down re-trigger anything. MSCI August review announced 08-12; no change flagged for the name. Valuation nulled per SGR-1. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.19 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.15 | No action on Mapletree Logistics Trust - unowned, no tradable signal, three-month view about 3% below the price. The buy signal this book declined on 4 August at 1.23 now trades 1.19, so the pass is still paying. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SGR-3 graded correct a fifth time - the 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 is -3.25% (worse than -2.44% last night). Target_12Week 1.15 < close 1.19 fails SGR-2. Valuation NA -> gate off, val_adj 0. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.97 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.94 | No action on Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust. The valuation screen has just flagged it as the book's first-ever bargain, and on the very same day the technical read went blank - no tradable signal at all, with a three-month view about 3% below the price. Cheap on one measure and directionless on the other is not a buy on this book, where the valuation layer has repeatedly misread distribution-paying trusts. OPERATIONAL: degraded WATCH 34 -> NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction); Target_12Week 0.94 < close 0.97 (-3.1%); RSI 43.8 flat a fourth session. Refreshed valuation flips to Val_Signal FAIR_VALUE with Bargain=True (first ever on this book) while MoS_FV reads -6.07 and FV_per_share 0.137 vs a 0.97 price - internally contradictory, systemic finding 4. SGR-1 nulls the valuation input, so no operational effect. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.21 | WATCH | 2.21 | 2.25 | n/a | 2.20 (-0.5%) | 2.03 (-8.1%) | No action on Frasers Centrepoint Trust - we do not own it and the model is firmly bearish for a second session, with a three-month view about 8% below today's price. Long-only, so there is nothing to do, but it is the clearest negative read in the REIT sleeve and it argues against treating CapitaLand Integrated's persistence as sector-wide strength. OPERATIONAL: second consecutive high-conviction bearish print, family reverting FailedBreakout_Down_20D -> RallySell_BearTrend; Target_12Week 2.03 vs close 2.21 (-8.1%).. Valuation NA -> gate off. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.89 | n/a | 0.81 (-5.8%) | 0.79 (-8.1%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascott Trust - unowned, still breaking down, with a three-month view some 8% lower and trading volume drying up. It remains the only name the quality screen passes, which is precisely why this book does not let that screen drive buying decisions. OPERATIONAL: BreakdownDown_20D pinned at 0.86, conviction decayed, volume 4.50M vs 7.94M; Target_12Week 0.79 vs close 0.86 (-8.1%). Standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1. Valuation nulled per SGR-1. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.